By R.L. Bynum
No. 22 Louisville (9–3, 1–0 ACC) at No. 12 North Carolina (9–2, 0–0)
When: 4:02 p.m. Sunday
Where: Carmichael Arena
TV: ACC Network: Jenn Hildreth play-by-play, Meghan McKweon analyst
Radio: WCHL AM1360, FM 97.9 (Also streaming on the Varsity Network app); Matt Krause play-by-play
Line: UNC -4½
Moneylines: Louisville +140; UNC -166
Over/under: 136½
Coaches: Jeff Walz (495–149 in 19th season at Louisville) and Courtney Banghart (388–66 in 19th season; 134–66 in seventh season at UNC)
UNC projected starters: Elina Aarnisalo, Lanie Grant, Indya Nivar, Nyla Harris and Ciera Toomey
Series: Louisville leads 9–6, including 3–2 in Carmichael Arena, winning nine of the last 12 meetings.
Common opponent: Both lost to No. 3 South Carolina: Louisville at home 79–77 on Dec. 4 and UNC 91–82 in an Oct. 30 exhibition in Atlanta.
NET rankings: Louisville 15, UNC 14
Massey Ratings: Louisville 24, UNC 22
Torvik rankings: Louisville 22, UNC 10
Warren Nolan prediction: UNC 71, Louisville 66
Quad designation: Louisville’s NET ranking is 15, making this UNC’s third Quad 1 game. The Tar Heels are 0–2 in Quad 1 games, with a 78–60 loss on Nov. 13 in Las Vegas to No. 4 UCLA and a 79–64 defeat at No. 2 Texas on Dec. 4.
Louisville results
Nov. 4: 79–66 loss to No. 1 UConn in Annapolis, Md.
Nov. 9: 89–61 win vs. Northern Kentucky
Nov. 12: 74–68 win vs. Colorado
Nov. 16: 65–54 win at Clemson
Nov. 19: 96–49 win vs. Morehead State
Nov. 22: 72–62 loss vs. No. 15 Kentucky
Nov. 28: 91–37 win vs. Eastern Illinois
Nov. 29: 88–50 win over East Tennessee State
Nov. 30: 100–37 win vs. Bellarmine
Dec. 4: 79–77 loss vs. No. 3 South Carolina
Dec. 7: 94–43 win vs. Ball State
Read more
— Quad 1 chances, like ACC opener vs. Louisville, big for UNC with league down
— UNC flourishing with new-look offense, big strides by Toomey, help from male practice players
Projected Louisville starters
No. 22 | G | Tajiana Roberts (top photo) | 5–10 | sophomore
— Team-leading 12.3 points (15th in the ACC), 43.2 FG% (13th in the ACC), 37.3 3P% (10th in the ACC with 22 3-pointers), 73.3 FT%, 2.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists
— Scored 20 points against South Carolina
— Preseason All-ACC First Team and on the Drysdale Award Watch List
— Named ACC All-Freshman Team and was All-ACC Second Team last season
No. 0 | F | Laura Ziegler | 6–2 | senior | Saint Joseph’s transfer
— 11.2 points, 43.8 FG%, 40.5 3P%, 92.9 FT%, team-leading 7.3 rebounds (15th in the ACC), team-leading 2.8 assists
— From Herlev, Denmark, she notched a third double-double against Kentucky
— Was Big 5 Player of the year and Atlantic 10 First Team last season
No. 11 | F | Elif Istanbulluoglu | 6–3 | junior
— 8.2 points, 44.6 FG%, 29.6 3P%, 76.2 FT%, 4.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists
— From Istanbul, Türkiye, she tied her career-high with 15 points against South Carolina
— Played for the Türkiye Senior National Team in the FIBA Eurobasket last summer
No. 4 | F | Mackenly Randolph | 6–0 | sophomore
— 7.2 points, 58.6 FG%, 66.7 3P%, 88.2 FT%, 3.8 rebounds, 1.0 assist
— Tied season-high with 12 points against Ball State
— A 2024 McDonald’s All-American, her father is former NBA All-Star Zach Randolph.
No. 9 | F | Anaya Hardy | 6–3 | sophomore
— 6.3 points, 67.6 FG%, 41.9 FT%, 6.8 rebounds
— Recorded third double-double (12 points, 10 rebounds) against Ball State
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Notes
— This is a huge matchup between two of the ACC’s three ranked teams (No. 19 Notre Dame is the other). The Tar Heels were picked third in the preseason ACC poll and Louisville fourth.
— Louisville lost three starters from last season, including forward Nyla Harris, who transferred to UNC and faces her former team Sunday.
— All three of Louisville’s losses have come against ranked teams: No. 1 UConn, No. 3 South Carolina and No. 15 Kentucky. Both of UNC’s losses have come to ranked teams: at No. 2 Texas and to No. 4 UCLA in Las Vegas.
— The Cardinals’ 82.9 points per game are second in the ACC and 18th in the country, while the Tar Heels’ 79.6 are third and 34th. Louisville leads the ACC in scoring margin (+25.25), with UNC third (22.73). UNC is second in the ACC in field-goal percentage (47.8%), and Louisville is fifth (46.5%).
— Louisville leads the ACC in 3-point shooting percentage (37.1%) and 3-point shooting percentage defense (23.5%), while UNC is second (36.1%) and 12th (30.6%).
— UNC is second in the ACC in turnover margin (+7.27; Louisville fourth at +5.92) and 3-pointers (8.64 per game; Louisville third at 8.5); and third in assists (16.55 per game; Louisville 6th at 16.08), steals (11.45 per game; Louisville 7th at 8.83) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.27; Louisville first at 1.43).
— UNC senior guard Indya Nivar is second in the ACC in steals at 3.91 per game, with 6–0 junior Louisville wing Skylar Jones 11th at 2.0. Nivar is 10th in ACC in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.78.
— Carolina freshman Nyla Brooks is second in the ACC in 3-point shooting percentage at 43.4% (23 of 53), eighth in 3-pointers (23, 2.09 per game) and 11th in offensive rebounding (2.8 per game).
— UNC redshirt sophomore center Ciera Toomey is seventh in the ACC in blocks with 16 (1.45 per game), 10th in offensive rebounding (2.91 per game) and 12th in rebounding (7.0 per game).
— Cardinals opponents have only 29 fast-break points, 2.4 per game, and haven’t scored a fast-break point in three of the last four games. Opponents have no fast-break points in six of 12 games.
— The Cardinals lead the ACC and are third in the country with 36.1 bench points per game. They have had 40 or more bench points six times this season, and the Louisville bench has outscored the opponent’s total three times.
— Under Coach Courtney Banghart, UNC’s games with Louisville have been decided by an average margin of 6.8 points.
UNC season statistics
Louisville season statistics
Statistical comparison
| Statistic | UNC | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Points per Game | 79.6 | 82.9 |
| FG% | 47.82% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.1% |
| FT% | 64.3% | 75.0% |
| Rebounds/game | 36.5 | 41.3 |
| Assists/game | 16.5 | 16.1 |
| Blocks/game | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| Steals/game | 11.5 | 8.8 |
| Scoring defense | 56.9 | 57.7 |
| Opponent FG% | 39.4% | 38.3% |
| Opponent 3PT% | 30.6% | 23.5% |
| Rebound Margin | +5.8 | +7.3 |
| Assist/TO ratio | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* | WAB* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 13 Duke | 16–2 | 21–8 | 10 | 13 |
| No. 12 Louisville | 15–3 | 25–6 | 13 | 10 |
| No. 16 North Carolina | 14–4 | 25–6 | 19 | 14 |
| N.C. State | 13–5 | 20–9 | 23 | 27 |
| Syracuse | 12–6 | 22–7 | 40 | 31 |
| Virginia Tech | 12–6 | 22–8 | 41 | 34 |
| Notre Dame | 12–6 | 20–9 | 24 | 23 |
| Clemson | 11–7 | 20–10 | 44 | 40 |
| Virginia | 11–7 | 19–10 | 36 | 49 |
| California | 9–9 | 18–13 | 53 | 60 |
| Stanford | 8–10 | 19–12 | 42 | 56 |
| Miami | 8–10 | 16–13 | 58 | 65 |
| Georgia Tech | 7–10 | 12–17 | 76 | 109 |
| Florida State | 5–13 | 10–20 | 107 | 138 |
| Wake Forest | 4–14 | 14–16 | 121 | 134 |
| SMU | 2–16 | 9–21 | 220 | 209 |
| Pittsburgh | 1–17 | 8–23 | 262 | 238 |
| Boston College | 1–17 | 5–26 | 247 | 283 |
* — Through Sunday games
Thursday’s results
No. 16 North Carolina 82, Virginia 70
No. 12 Louisville 69, Georgia Tech 50
Notre Dame 72, Syracuse 62
Miami 79, Pittsburgh 58
N.C. State 65, Wake Forest 58
No. 13 Duke 80, Florida State 52
Stanford 87, SMU 57
Clemson 70, California 63
Sunday’s results
No. 16 North Carolina 74, No. 13 Duke 69
Virginia Tech 83, Virginia 82
Georgia Tech 79, Miami 49
N.C. State 93, Pittsburgh 43
Stanford 85, Clemson 50
Syracuse 90, Boston College 65
Notre Dame 65, No. 12 Louisville 62
Florida State 77, Wake Forest 74, OT
California 78, SMU 34
End of regular season
ACC tournament
Gas South Arena
Duluth, Ga.
March 4–8
| Date | Day/month | Scores | Opponent/event (current ranks) | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 30 | Thursday | L, 91–82 | No. 4 South Carolina in Atlanta | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 90–42 | vs. N.C. Central | 1–0 |
| 6 | Thursday | W, 71–37 | vs. Elon | 2–0 |
| WBCA Challenge Las Vegas | ||||
| 13 | Thursday | L, 78–60 | vs. No. 2 UCLA | 2–1 |
| 15 | Saturday | W, 82–68 | vs. Fairfield | 3–1 |
| ——————————— | ||||
| 20 | Thursday | W, 85–50 | at N.C. A&T | 4–1 |
| 23 | Sunday | W, 94–48 | vs. UNCG | 5–1 |
| Cancun Challenge Cancun, Mexico | ||||
| 27 | Thursday | W, 83–48 | vs. South Dakota St. | 6–1 |
| 28 | Friday | W, 85–73 | vs. Kansas State | 7–1 |
| 29 | Saturday | W, 80–63 | vs. Columbia | 8–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Women’s Challenge | |||
| 4 | Thursday | W, 79–64 | at No. 3 Texas | 8–2 |
| ——————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 82–40 | vs. Boston Univ. | 9–2 |
| 14 | Sunday | L, 76–66, OT | vs. No. 13 Louisville | 9–3, 0–1 ACC |
| 17 | Wednesday | W, 84–34 | vs. UNCW | 10–3 |
| 21 | Sunday | W, 93–74 | vs. Charleston Southern | 11–3 |
| 29 | Monday | W, 90–38 | at Boston College | 12–3, 1–1 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 1 | Thursday | W, 71–55 | vs. California | 13–3, 2–1 |
| 4 | Sunday | L, 77–71, OT | vs. Stanford | 13–4, 2–2 |
| 11 | Sunday | L, 73–50 | at No. 22 Notre Dame | 13–5, 2–3 |
| 15 | Thursday | W, 73–62 | vs. Miami | 14–5, 3–3 |
| 18 | Sunday | W, 82–55 | at Florida State | 15–5, 4–3 |
| 22 | Thursday | W, 54–46 | at Georgia Tech | 16–5, 5–3 |
| 25 | Sunday | W, 77–71, OT | vs. Syracuse | 17–5, 6–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 61–59 | at N.C. State | 18–5, 7–3 |
| 5 | Thursday | W, 53–44 | vs. Clemson | 19–5, 8–3 |
| 8 | Sunday | W, 84–56 | vs. Wake Forest | 20–5, 9–3 |
| 12 | Thursday | W, 94–42 | vs. SMU | 21–5, 10–3 |
| 15 | Sunday | L, 72–68 | at No. 8 Duke | 21–6, 10–4 |
| 19 | Thursday | W, 66–63, OT | at Virginia Tech | 22–6, 11–4 |
| 22 | Sunday | W, 78–50 | vs. Pittsburgh | 23–6, 12–4 |
| 26 | Thursday | W, 82–70 | at Virginia | 24–6, 13–4 |
| March | ||||
| 1 | Sunday | W, 72–69 | vs. No. 8 Duke | 25–6, 14–4 |
| ACC tournament | Gas South Arena, Duluth, Ga. | |||
| 6 | Friday | W, 85–68 | Quarterfinal vs. Va. Tech | 26–6 |
| 7 | Saturday | L, 65–57 | Semifinal vs. No. 13 Louisville | 26–7 |
| NCAA tournament Fort Worth 1 Regional | ||||
| 21 | Friday | W, 82–51 | First round in Chapel Hill: vs. Western Illinois | 27–7 |
| 23 | Sunday | W, 74–66 | Second round in Chapel Hill: No. 17 Maryland | 28–7 |
| 27 | Friday | L, 63–52 | Sweet 16 in Fort Worth, Texas: vs. No. 1 UConn | 28–8 |
Photos via gocards.com
