By R.L. Bynum
No. 12 North Carolina faces a classic ACC gauntlet in a league that’s improved from last season, leaving little margin for error in some road games.
The Tar Heels (12–1) have eight Quad 1 chances, most on the road, including the two showdowns with No. 6 Duke (11–1).
If Carolina wins the home games it’s supposed to win and splits the coin-flips at Virginia (11–2) and Miami (11–2), it could be on a path to a No. 2 seed. Doing that and adding a marquee win at Duke to end the regular season could nudge UNC to the top line.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
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Carolina’s ceiling depends on whether the guards can keep the turnovers down (UNC is 28th in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.71 and 34th in turnovers per game at 10.1) and increase their 3-point production without sacrificing interior passes to Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar.
The numbers say UNC will be favored more often than not; the margins say February road grit will decide who they are by March.
Below is a breakdown of the remaining schedule by current quadrant designation, with Bart Torvik–style win probabilities, predicted outcomes and scoring margins.
More on Tar Heels
— Above the rim and beyond: Wilson’s dunking show rolls on
— High arc, high impact: Veesaar’s 3-point shooting stretches floor, limits of UNC’s offense
— Wilson’s history-making first 13 games echo UNC’s greatest freshmen
— UNC second-highest ACC team in NET after jump; Quad 1 game becomes Quad 2; 4 becomes 3
— Eight is enough: Tar Heels settling into rotation entering ACC play
— Tar Heels hold at No. 12 in AP Top 25 men’s poll, leapfrogged by Vandy
Quad 1
at California (12–1) — Jan. 17
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 65%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 5–7
- NET ranking: 46
- Recent head-to-head: Carolina beat the Bears 97–53 at the Smith Center last season in the only meeting in the last 26 seasons.
at Virginia (11–1) — Jan. 24
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 48%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): Toss‑up; UNC by 1 or Cavaliers by 2
- NET ranking: 23
- Recent head-to-head: Carolina won 54–44 in the last meeting in Charlottesville on Feb. 24, 2024, after Virginia had won the previous eight times.
vs. Duke (11–1) — Feb. 7 (home)
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 49%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): Pick ’em; UNC by 1 or Duke by 2
- NET ranking: 2
- Recent head-to-head: The teams have split the last two Smith Center meetings, with UNC winning 93–84 in 2024 and Duke winning 92–69 last season.
at Miami (11–2) — Feb. 10
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 55%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 3–4
- NET ranking: 34
- Recent head-to-head: UNC has won three of the last four meetings at the Watsco Center, last losing 85–57 on Jan. 18, 2022
at N.C. State (9–4) — Feb. 17
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 58%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 3–5
- NET ranking: 31
- Recent head-to-head: UNC has won three of the last four games at the arena now called the Lenovo Center, last losing 77–69 on Feb. 19, 2023.
at Syracuse (9–4) — Feb. 21
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 62%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 4–6
- NET ranking: 88
- Recent head-to-head: UNC has won two of the last three games in the facility now known as the JMA Wireless Dome, last losing 86–79 on Feb. 13, 2024.
Louisville (10–2) — Feb. 23 (home)
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 57%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 2–4
- NET ranking: 17
- Recent head-to-head: UNC is 6–1 against the Cardinals at the Smith Center, including winning the last three meetings. Louisville’s only win was 83–62 on Jan. 12, 2019.
at Duke (11–1) — March 7
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 32%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): Duke by 5–7
- NET ranking: 2
- Recent head-to-head: Carolina has won three of the last five meetings in Cameron Indoor Stadium, including the 94–81 win on March 5, 2022, in Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game.
Quad 2
at SMU (10–2) — Jan. 3
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 60%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 4
- NET ranking: 36
- Recent head-to-head: This will be UNC’s first game at SMU. The Tar Heels have only played the Mustangs in Dallas once: an 88–86 overtime win at the Reunion Arena on Dec. 30, 1986
Wake Forest (9–4) — Jan. 10 (home)
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 71%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 7–8
- NET ranking: 68
- Recent head-to-head: UNC has won the last nine meetings in the Smith Center, last losing 82–69 on Jan. 20, 2010.
at Stanford (10–2) — Jan. 14
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 62%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 4–6
- NET ranking: 76
- Recent head-to-head: Carolina has won both meetings at Maples Pavilion, but they were on Dec. 3, 1983 (88–75) and Nov. 20, 2017 (96–72). The Cardinal won the inaugural ACC game between the programs last season 72–71 on Jan. 18, 2025.
Virginia Tech (11–2) — Feb. 28 (home)
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 70%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 7–8
- NET ranking: 62
- Recent head-to-head: UNC has the last nine Smith Center meetings and six of last eight overall. The Hokies’ last win in Chapel Hill was 81–80 in overtime on Feb. 13, 2007.
Clemson (10–3) — March 3 (home)
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 68%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 6–7
- NET ranking: 37
- Recent head-to-head: UNC has dominated home games but has lost two of the last three after winning the first 59. Clemson has won the last two overall meetings.
Quad 3
Florida State (7–6) — Tuesday (home)
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 78%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 8–10
- NET ranking: 129
- Recent head-to-head: Carolina has won the last six overall meetings and the last eight home meetings, and is 21–4 all-time against the Seminoles at the Smith Center. Florida State hasn’t won in Chapel Hill since a 77–67 win on March 2, 2010.
Notre Dame (9–4) — Jan. 21 (home)
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 74%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 8–9
- NET ranking: 81
- Recent head-to-head: UNC has won the last five meetings and seven of the last eight. Notre Dame has only won once in 11 tries at the Smith Center, a 71–70 win on March 3, 2014.
At Georgia Tech (8–4) — Jan. 31
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 66%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 5–6
- NET ranking: 190
- Recent head-to-head: UNC has won four of the last five meetings, but has lost two of the last three meetings at the McCamish Pavilion.
Syracuse (9–4) — Feb. 2 (home)
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 77%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 8–10
- NET ranking: 88
- Recent head-to-head: UNC has won all seven Smith Center meetings and four of the last five overall meetings.
Pittsburgh (7–6) — Feb. 14 (home)
- UNC win probability (according to Bart Torvik): 72%
- Predicted result/margin (according to Bart Torvik): UNC by 7–8
- NET ranking: 115
- Recent head-to-head: Pittsburgh is 7–3 at the Smith Center but UNC has won three of the last four overall meetings.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 15
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 26 (2 days)
Average opponent NET: 161
Average NET win: 173
Average NET loss: 13
NET strength of schedule: 76
KenPom: 21
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 21
| Team | League | Overall | NET* | WAB* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Duke | 17–1 | 29–2 | 1 | 2 |
| No. 10 Virginia | 15–3 | 27–4 | 13 | 11 |
| Miami | 13–5 | 24–7 | 32 | 28 |
| No. 19 North Carolina | 12–6 | 24–7 | 23 | 19 |
| Clemson | 12–6 | 22–9 | 36 | 33 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 11–7 | 22–9 | 14 | 25 |
| N.C. State | 10–8 | 19–12 | 35 | 45 |
| Florida State | 10–8 | 17–14 | 69 | 74 |
| California | 9–9 | 21–10 | 65 | 49 |
| Stanford | 9–9 | 20–11 | 59 | 51 |
| SMU | 8–10 | 19–12 | 39 | 50 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–10 | 19–12 | 53 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 7–11 | 16–15 | 64 | 81 |
| Syracuse | 6–12 | 15–16 | 83 | 92 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–13 | 12–19 | 109 | 146 |
| Notre Dame | 4–14 | 13–18 | 93 | 121 |
| Boston College | 4–14 | 11–20 | 159 | 217 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–16 | 11–20 | 167 | 210 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
No. 1 Duke 76, No. 19 North Carolina 61
Boston College 77, Notre Dame 69
Clemson 79, Georgia Tech 76
No. 24 Louisville 92, Miami 89
Florida State 92, SMU 78
Stanford 85, N.C. State 84
Wake Forest 80, California 73
Pittsburgh 71, Syracuse 69, OT
END OF REGULAR SEASON
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday through Saturday
| Date | Month/day | Scores | Opponent/event (current ranks) | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 17 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 11 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 9 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | W, 71–68 | vs. No. 1 Duke | 19–4, 7–3 |
| 10 | Tuesday | L, 75–66 | at No. 25 Miami | 19–5, 7–4 |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 79–65 | vs. Pittsburgh | 20–5, 8–4 |
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 82–58 | at N.C. State | 20–6, 8–5 |
| 21 | Saturday | W, 77–64 | at Syracuse | 21–6, 9–5 |
| 23 | Monday | W, 77–74 | vs. Louisville | 22–6, 10–5 |
| 28 | Saturday | W, 89–82 | vs. Virginia Tech | 23–6, 11–5 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | W, 67–63 | vs. Clemson | 24–6, 12–5 |
| 7 | Saturday | L, 76–61 | at No. 1 Duke | 24–7, 12–6 |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte | |
| 12 | Thursday | L, 80–79 | Quarterfinals: vs. Clemson | 24–8 |
| NCAA tournament | ||||
| 19 | Thursday | L, 82–78, OT | First round: vs. VCU in Greenville, S.C. | 24–9 |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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