By R.L. Bynum
Predicting what a victory will do for No. 3 North Carolina’s NET ranking isn’t always easy. But one-sided wins have pushed the Tar Heels higher, even a 45-point Quad 4 win over Charleston Southern earlier this season.
That happened after UNC’s impressive 85–64 victory over Wake Forest on Monday night behind RJ Davis’ career-high 36 points. The Quad 2 win moved the Heels up one spot in the NET rankings to a season-high 6, which projects as a No. 2 seed.
But, for the first time this season, Bracket Matrix’s average of dozens of bracket projections projects UNC as the fourth No. 1 seed. Before Monday’s game, Jerry Palm’s CBS bracket projection had the Tar Heels as the No. 1 seed in the West Regional in Los Angeles with first- and second-round games in Charlotte. In Tuesday’s updated ESPN bracket, Joe Lunardi has UNC as the No. 1 seed in the South Regional in Dallas, with first- and second-round games in Charlotte.
It was the second consecutive Quad 2 victory for ACC-leading Carolina (16–3, 8–0 ACC), and can earn another at 2 p.m. Saturday (ESPN) when the Heels go on the road in search of a season sweep of Florida State (12–7, 6–2).
Carolina is 6th in KenPom, 7th in Bart Torvik’s ranking and 8th in Team Rankings.
UNC’s NET ranking didn’t change after Tuesday’s games, but the 103–67 home win over Syracuse on Jan. 13 went from a Quad 2 to a Quad 3 after the Orange’s 85–69 home loss to Florida State dropped them 14 spots to 82 in the NET rankings. For a home game to be Quad 2, the opponent has to have a NET ranking of at least 75.
The Tar Heels are now 3–0 in Quad 2 games and 4–0 in Quad 3 games.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 4–4; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 3 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 5–0; 3 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
With few other games on Monday, none of the other quad classifications for UNC games
changed.
Wake Forest fell two spots to 44th after the loss.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 23
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 124
Average NET win: 145
Average NET loss: 42
NET strength of schedule: 65
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 30
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 204 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 15 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 262 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 179 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 158 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 10 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 112 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 292 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 123 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 36 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 287 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 113 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 33 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 66 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 72 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 54 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 83 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 14 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 145 | 3 | |
| F2 | Syracuse | 79 | 3 | |
| F7 | Duke | 3 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 37 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 126 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 27 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 79 | 2 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 51 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 31 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 3 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 8–0 | 19–1 | 2 |
| No. 22 Clemson | 7–1 | 17–4 | 31 |
| N.C. State | 6–2 | 15–6 | 27 |
| No. 17 Virginia | 6–2 | 17–3 | 14 |
| Miami | 5–2 | 16–4 | 36 |
| No. 16 North Carolina | 4–3 | 16–4 | 23 |
| SMU | 4–3 | 15–5 | 33 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–4 | 16–6 | 53 |
| No. 20 Louisville | 4–4 | 14–6 | 19 |
| California | 3–4 | 15–5 | 55 |
| Stanford | 3–4 | 14–6 | 72 |
| Syracuse | 3–5 | 12–9 | 79 |
| Boston College | 2–5 | 9–11 | 157 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–6 | 11–10 | 145 |
| Notre Dame | 2–6 | 11–10 | 83 |
| Wake Forest | 2–6 | 11–10 | 65 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–6 | 9–12 | 126 |
| Florida State | 1–6 | 8–12 | 113 |
* — Through Monday games
Monday’s result
No. 4 Duke 83, No. 20 Louisville 52
Tuesday’s results
Pittsburgh 80, Wake Forest 76, OT
N.C. State 88, Syracuse 68
No. 17 Virginia 100, Notre Dame 97, 2 OTs
Virginia Tech 71, Georgia Tech 65
Wednesday’s games
California at Florida State, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Stanford at Miami, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday’s games
No. 4 Duke at Virginia Tech, noon, ESPN
Pittsburgh at No. 22 Clemson, noon, ACC Network
No. 17 Virginia at Boston College, 1:30, The CW
No. 16 North Carolina at Georgia Tech, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at No. 23 Louisville, 2 p.m., ESPN
N.C. State at Wake Forest, 3:45, The CW
California at Miami, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Stanford at Florida State, 6 p.m., ACC Network
Notre Dame at Syracuse, 6 p.m., The CW
Monday’s game
Syracuse at No. 16 North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN
UNC season statistics
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 13 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 14 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 7 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 17 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at Georgia Tech | ACCN |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 22 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
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