By R.L. Bynum
Just because No. 10 Carolina isn’t playing a mid-week game doesn’t mean there aren’t fluctuations in the Tar Heels’ NCAA resume.
A pair of Tuesday night blowouts both helped and hurt the league-leading Tar Heels (20–6, 12–3 ACC), who fell one spot to 10th in the NET rankings.
The helpful result was Wake Forest’s 91–58 home victory over Pittsburgh that shot the Deacons (17–9, 9–6) up 14 spots in the NET rankings to 26. That made UNC’s 85–64 home win on Jan. 22 over Wake Forest the Tar Heels’ sixth Quad 1 victory since the threshold is 30.
The not-so-helpful result was No. 15 Creighton’s 85–66 victory over No. 1 UConn (24–3, 14–2 Big East). Strangely, that didn’t change the Huskies’ NET ranking (which stayed at 4), but it allowed the Bluejays (20–7, 11–5) to leapfrog UNC, going from 13 to 9.
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 4–3; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–1; 3 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 6–0; 2 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
Carolina’s 4 p.m. Saturday game at Virginia (20–7, 11–5) is still comfortably a Quad 1 game with the Cavaliers at 48 in the NET rankings, but the only other Quad 1 game on the Tar Heels’ schedule is the regular-season finale against Duke (16th).
The home games Feb. 26 against Miami (15–11, 6–9, 77th in the NET) and March 2 against N.C. State (16–10, 8–7, 80th) are Quad 3 contests and the March 5 home game against Notre Dame (9–16, 4–10, 153rd) is Quad 4.
The Cavaliers’ 75–41 Monday loss at Virginia Tech dropped them to 1½ games back of UNC. No. 8 Duke (20–5, 11–3, 16th) can tie UNC for the ACC lead with a win at Miami at 7 p.m. Wednesday (ESPN).
In other metrics, UNC is 5th in KPI, 10th in KenPom and 12th in BPI and Bart Torvik’s T-Rank.
The NCAA tournament committee’s bracket reveal before UNC’s Saturday win over the Hokies had the Tar Heels as the top No. 2 seed.
Bracket Matrix’s average of 108 bracket projections has UNC as the second-highest No. 2 seed.
Joe Lunardi’s ESPN projection and Jerry Palm’s CBS projection both have UNC as the No. 2 seed in the East and playing first- and second-round games in Charlotte. Both have UConn as the No. 1 seed in the East.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 25
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 122
Average NET win: 141
Average NET loss: 44
NET strength of schedule: 50
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 29
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 199 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 14 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 243 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 340 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 170 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 146 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 95 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 286 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 129 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 40 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 289 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 102 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 70 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 78 | 2 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 51 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 85 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 18 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 143 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 73 | 3 | |
| F7 | Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 39 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 114 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 26 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 73 | 2 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 56 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 31 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 13 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 14 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 7 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 17 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 22 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
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