By R.L. Bynum
No. 9 North Carolina’s fifth Quad 3 victory Monday night didn’t change the Tar Heels’ NET ranking, but more bracket projections are shifting the Tar Heels up to the No. 1 seed line with Selection Sunday 19 days away.
League-leading UNC men (22–6, 14–3 ACC) remained ninth in the NET rankings after RJ Davis’ career-high 42 points led the Tar Heels to a 75–71 victory over Miami, assuring them of no worse than a No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament.
ESPN projects UNC’s women (18–10, 10–6), with a NET ranking of 30, as a No. 6 seed in the Portland 4 region, playing first- and second-round games in Baton Rouge, La., with a potential second-round game against No. 9 LSU on its home court.
On Monday, only eight of 100 projections on Bracket Matrix had UNC’s men as a No. 1 seed, but now 23 of 107 have the Tar Heels as a No. 1 seed. Many bracket projections hadn’t been updated since late last week.
Jerry Palm’s Tuesday projection for CBS has UNC as the No. 1 seed in the West Regional, to be played at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, with Caleb Love’s No. 6 Arizona team (21–6) as the No. 2 seed. Joe Lunardi’s latest ESPN projection released Tuesday still has the Tar Heels as the No. 2 seed in the East Regional in Boston, where he has No. 3 UConn (25–3) as the No. 1 seed.
It’s a given at this point that Carolina will play its first- and second-round games at Charlotte’s Spectrum Center.
In other metrics, UNC is third in KPI, ninth in KenPom, 10th in T-Rank and 12th in BPI.
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 5–5; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 2–0; 1 game left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–0; 1 game left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
No. 10 Duke (21–6, 12–4), 10th in the NET rankings, has an average of the third-best No. 3 seed in Bracket Matrix, but Palm has the Blue Devils as a No. 4 seed in the Midwest Regional, where he has Purdue as the No. 1 seed. Lunardi has the Blue Devils as the No. 3 seed in the East. Both projections have Duke playing first- and second-round games in Pittsburgh.
Lunardi and Palm both have five ACC teams making the field. In addition to UNC and Duke, both have Clemson (19–8, 9–7; No. 5 in the East, according to Lunardi; No. 5 in the West, according to Palm), Wake Forest (18–9, 10–6; No. 10 seed in South; No. 11 in First Four) and Virginia (20–8, 11–6; No. 11 in First Four; No. 10 in the South).
Charlie Creme’s ESPN projection has nine ACC teams in the women’s field. In addition to UNC, he has No. 5 Virginia Tech (23–4, 14–2; No. 2 in Albany 2), No. 12 N.C. State (23–5, 11–5; No. 3 in Albany 1), No. 17 Notre Dame (21–6, 11–5; No. 5 in Portland 4), Syracuse (23–5, 13–4, No. 5 in Albany 1), No. 22 Louisville (22–7, 11–5; No. 6 in Portland 3), Duke (18–9, 10–6; No. 7 in Portland 3), Florida State (20–8, 11–5; No. 8 in Albany 2) and Miami (17–10, 7–9; No. 9 in Albany 1) making the tournament.
UNC could be as high as the No. 5 seed in the ACC women’s tournament. That will happen if the Tar Heels win at Boston College on Thursday and at home against Duke on Sunday, Florida State beats Louisville on Thursday, and Louisville beats Notre Dame on Sunday.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 25
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 109
Average NET win: 126
Average NET loss: 41
NET strength of schedule: 64
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 28
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Wednesday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 181 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 13 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 243 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 338 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 153 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 144 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 27 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 93 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 283 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 116 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 40 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 278 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 65 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 69 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 63 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 88 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 18 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 159 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 71 | 2 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 3 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 124 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 29 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 68 | 1 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 14 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 51 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 33 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 3 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 11–1 | 22–2 | 3 |
| No. 15 Virginia | 10–2 | 21–3 | 18 |
| No. 20 Clemson | 10–2 | 20–5 | 33 |
| N.C. State | 9–3 | 18–7 | 29 |
| Miami | 8–3 | 19–5 | 36 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 8–4 | 18–6 | 14 |
| No. 11 North Carolina | 7–4 | 19–5 | 25 |
| SMU | 6–5 | 17–7 | 34 |
| Virginia Tech | 6–6 | 17–8 | 51 |
| California | 5–7 | 17–8 | 63 |
| Syracuse | 5–7 | 14–11 | 68 |
| Stanford | 5–7 | 16–9 | 69 |
| Florida State | 4–7 | 11–13 | 94 |
| Wake Forest | 3–8 | 12–12 | 65 |
| Boston College | 2–9 | 9–15 | 151 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–10 | 11–14 | 159 |
| Notre Dame | 2–10 | 11–14 | 88 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–10 | 9–16 | 125 |
* — Through Wednesday games
Tuesday’s results
Miami 75, No. 11 North Carolina 66
No. 15 Virginia 61, Florida State 58
SMU 89, Notre Dame 81
No. 4 Duke 70, Pittsburgh 54
Wednesday’s results
Virginia Tech 76, No. 20 Clemson 66
Syracuse 107, California 100, 2 OTs
Wake Forest 83, Georgia Tech 67
Stanford 70, Boston College 64
Saturday’s games
No. 20 Clemson at No. 4 Duke, noon, ESPN
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame, noon, The CW
California at Boston College, noon, ACC Network
Pittsburgh at No. 11 North Carolina, 2 p.m., ESPN
Florida State at Virginia Tech, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Syracuse, 2 p.m., The CW
No. 24 Louisville vs. Baylor in Fort Worth, Texas, 4 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2
Stanford at Wake Forest, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Miami at N.C. State, 4 p.m., ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU
No. 15 Virginia vs. Ohio State in Nashville, 8 p.m., Fox
Monday’s game
Syracuse at No. 4 Duke, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
Boston College at Florida State, 6 p.m., ACC Network
No. 11 North Carolina at N.C. State, 7 p.m., ESPN
No. 24 Louisville at SMU, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Virginia Tech at Miami, 8 p.m., ACC Network
UNC season statistics
| Date | Month/day | Time/score | Opponent/event (current ranks) | Record/TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 27 | Friday | W, 117–53 | vs. St. Augustine’s | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 6 | Monday | W, 86–70 | vs. Radford | 1–0 |
| 12 | Sunday | W, 90–68 | vs. Lehigh | 2–0 |
| 17 | Friday | W, 77–52 | vs. UC Riverside | 3–0 |
| Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas | ||||
| 22 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | Northern Iowa | 4–0 |
| 23 | Thursday | L, 83–81, OT | Villanova | 4–1 |
| 24 | Friday | W, 87–72 | Arkansas | 5–1 |
| ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | ||||
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 100–92 | vs. No. 4 Tennessee | 6–1 |
| December | ||||
| 2 | Saturday | W, 78–70 | vs. Florida State | 7–1, 1–0 ACC |
| Jimmy V Classic in New York | ||||
| 5 | Tuesday | L, 87–67 | No. 3 Connecticut | 7–2 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 16 | Saturday | L, 87–83 | No. 16 Kentucky | 7–3 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 20 | Wednesday | W, 81–69 | Oklahoma | 8–3 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Friday | W, 105–60 | vs. Charleston Southern | 9–3 |
| January | ||||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 70–57 | at Pittsburgh | 10–3, 2–0 ACC |
| 6 | Saturday | W, 65–55 | at Clemson | 11–3, 3–0 ACC |
| 10 | Wednesday | W, 67–54 | at N.C. State | 12–3, 4–0 ACC |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 103–67 | vs. Syracuse | 13–3, 5–0 ACC |
| 17 | Wednesday | W, 86–70 | vs. Louisville | 14–3, 6–0 ACC |
| 20 | Saturday | W, 76–66 | vs. Boston College | 15–3, 7–0 ACC |
| 22 | Monday | W, 85–64 | vs. Wake Forest | 16–3, 8–0 ACC |
| 27 | Saturday | W, 75–68 | at Florida State | 17–3, 9–0 ACC |
| 30 | Tuesday | L, 74–73 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 9–1 ACC |
| February | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | W, 93–84 | vs. No. 10 Duke | 18–4, 10–1 ACC |
| 6 | Tuesday | L, 80–76 | vs. Clemson | 18–5, 10–2 ACC |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 75–72 | at Miami | 19–5, 11–2 ACC |
| 13 | Tuesday | L, 86–79 | at Syracuse | 19–6, 11–3 ACC |
| 17 | Saturday | W, 96–81 | vs. Virginia Tech | 20–6, 12–3 ACC |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 54–44 | at Virginia | 21–6, 13–3 ACC |
| 26 | Monday | W, 75–71 | vs. Miami | 22–6, 14–3 ACC |
| March | ||||
| 2 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | vs. N.C. State | ESPN |
| 5 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Notre Dame | ACCN |
| 9 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 10 Duke | ESPN |
| 12–16 | Tuesday- Saturday | ACC tournament Washington |
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