By R.L. Bynum
No. 9 North Carolina’s fifth Quad 3 victory Monday night didn’t change the Tar Heels’ NET ranking, but more bracket projections are shifting the Tar Heels up to the No. 1 seed line with Selection Sunday 19 days away.
League-leading UNC men (22–6, 14–3 ACC) remained ninth in the NET rankings after RJ Davis’ career-high 42 points led the Tar Heels to a 75–71 victory over Miami, assuring them of no worse than a No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament.
ESPN projects UNC’s women (18–10, 10–6), with a NET ranking of 30, as a No. 6 seed in the Portland 4 region, playing first- and second-round games in Baton Rouge, La., with a potential second-round game against No. 9 LSU on its home court.
On Monday, only eight of 100 projections on Bracket Matrix had UNC’s men as a No. 1 seed, but now 23 of 107 have the Tar Heels as a No. 1 seed. Many bracket projections hadn’t been updated since late last week.
Jerry Palm’s Tuesday projection for CBS has UNC as the No. 1 seed in the West Regional, to be played at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, with Caleb Love’s No. 6 Arizona team (21–6) as the No. 2 seed. Joe Lunardi’s latest ESPN projection released Tuesday still has the Tar Heels as the No. 2 seed in the East Regional in Boston, where he has No. 3 UConn (25–3) as the No. 1 seed.
It’s a given at this point that Carolina will play its first- and second-round games at Charlotte’s Spectrum Center.
In other metrics, UNC is third in KPI, ninth in KenPom, 10th in T-Rank and 12th in BPI.
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 3–4; 8 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 2 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 4–0; 3 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
No. 10 Duke (21–6, 12–4), 10th in the NET rankings, has an average of the third-best No. 3 seed in Bracket Matrix, but Palm has the Blue Devils as a No. 4 seed in the Midwest Regional, where he has Purdue as the No. 1 seed. Lunardi has the Blue Devils as the No. 3 seed in the East. Both projections have Duke playing first- and second-round games in Pittsburgh.
Lunardi and Palm both have five ACC teams making the field. In addition to UNC and Duke, both have Clemson (19–8, 9–7; No. 5 in the East, according to Lunardi; No. 5 in the West, according to Palm), Wake Forest (18–9, 10–6; No. 10 seed in South; No. 11 in First Four) and Virginia (20–8, 11–6; No. 11 in First Four; No. 10 in the South).
Charlie Creme’s ESPN projection has nine ACC teams in the women’s field. In addition to UNC, he has No. 5 Virginia Tech (23–4, 14–2; No. 2 in Albany 2), No. 12 N.C. State (23–5, 11–5; No. 3 in Albany 1), No. 17 Notre Dame (21–6, 11–5; No. 5 in Portland 4), Syracuse (23–5, 13–4, No. 5 in Albany 1), No. 22 Louisville (22–7, 11–5; No. 6 in Portland 3), Duke (18–9, 10–6; No. 7 in Portland 3), Florida State (20–8, 11–5; No. 8 in Albany 2) and Miami (17–10, 7–9; No. 9 in Albany 1) making the tournament.
UNC could be as high as the No. 5 seed in the ACC women’s tournament. That will happen if the Tar Heels win at Boston College on Thursday and at home against Duke on Sunday, Florida State beats Louisville on Thursday, and Louisville beats Notre Dame on Sunday.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 29
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (3 days)
Average opponent NET: 136
Average NET win: 162
Average NET loss: 44
NET strength of schedule: 74
KenPom: 36
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 37
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 31
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 225 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 17 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 269 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 196 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 146 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 12 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 123 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 268 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 130 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 37 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 292 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 136 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 33 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 58 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 70 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 59 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 78 | 3 | |
| J24 | At Virginia | 14 | 1 | |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 131 | 3 | |
| F2 | Syracuse | 75 | 2 | |
| F7 | Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 30 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 114 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 34 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 75 | 1 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 53 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 25 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 5 Duke | 6–0 | 17–1 | 2 |
| No. 18 Clemson | 6–0 | 16–3 | 25 |
| No. 14 Virginia | 5–1 | 16–2 | 14 |
| Miami | 4–1 | 15–3 | 31 |
| N.C. State | 3–2 | 12–6 | 34 |
| Syracuse | 3–2 | 12–6 | 75 |
| Stanford | 3–3 | 14–5 | 69 |
| Virginia Tech | 3–3 | 14–5 | 54 |
| No. 23 Louisville | 3–3 | 13–5 | 16 |
| No. 22 North Carolina | 2–3 | 14–4 | 29 |
| SMU | 2–3 | 13–5 | 33 |
| Wake Forest | 2–3 | 11–7 | 57 |
| California | 2–4 | 14–5 | 59 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–4 | 11–8 | 141 |
| Notre Dame | 1–4 | 10–8 | 78 |
| Boston College | 1–4 | 8–10 | 165 |
| Pittsburgh | 1–4 | 8–10 | 114 |
| Florida State | 0–5 | 7–11 | 134 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
California 84, No. 22 North Carolina 78
No. 14 Virginia 72, SMU 68
Virginia Tech 89, Notre Dame 76
Georgia Tech 78, N.C. State 74
Boston College 81, Syracuse 73, OT
No. 18 Clemson 69, Miami 59
No. 5 Duke 80, Stanford 50
Wake Forest 69, Florida State 68
No. 23 Louisville 100, Pittsburgh 59
Tuesday’s games
N.C. State at No. 18 Clemson, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Florida State at Miami, 7 p.m., ESPNU
SMU at Wake Forest, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Wednesday’s games
Notre Dame at No. 22 North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Pittsburgh at Boston College, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Virginia Tech at Syracuse, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday’s games
No. 18 Clemson at Georgia Tech, noon, ACC Network
N.C. State at Pittsburgh, noon, ESPN2
No. 22 North Carolina at No. 14 Virginia, 2 p.m., ESPN
Miami at Syracuse, 2 p.m., ACC Network
Virginia Tech at No. 23 Louisville, 3:30, The CW
Florida State at SMU, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Wake Forest at No. 5 Duke, 5:45, The CW
Boston College at Notre Dame, 6 p.m., ACC Network
California at Stanford, 8 p.m., ACC Network
UNC season statistics
| Date | Month/day | Time/score | Opponent/event (current ranks) | Record/TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 27 | Friday | W, 117–53 | vs. St. Augustine’s | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 6 | Monday | W, 86–70 | vs. Radford | 1–0 |
| 12 | Sunday | W, 90–68 | vs. Lehigh | 2–0 |
| 17 | Friday | W, 77–52 | vs. UC Riverside | 3–0 |
| Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas | ||||
| 22 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | Northern Iowa | 4–0 |
| 23 | Thursday | L, 83–81, OT | Villanova | 4–1 |
| 24 | Friday | W, 87–72 | Arkansas | 5–1 |
| ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | ||||
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 100–92 | vs. No. 4 Tennessee | 6–1 |
| December | ||||
| 2 | Saturday | W, 78–70 | vs. Florida State | 7–1, 1–0 ACC |
| Jimmy V Classic in New York | ||||
| 5 | Tuesday | L, 87–67 | No. 3 Connecticut | 7–2 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 16 | Saturday | L, 87–83 | No. 16 Kentucky | 7–3 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 20 | Wednesday | W, 81–69 | Oklahoma | 8–3 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Friday | W, 105–60 | vs. Charleston Southern | 9–3 |
| January | ||||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 70–57 | at Pittsburgh | 10–3, 2–0 ACC |
| 6 | Saturday | W, 65–55 | at Clemson | 11–3, 3–0 ACC |
| 10 | Wednesday | W, 67–54 | at N.C. State | 12–3, 4–0 ACC |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 103–67 | vs. Syracuse | 13–3, 5–0 ACC |
| 17 | Wednesday | W, 86–70 | vs. Louisville | 14–3, 6–0 ACC |
| 20 | Saturday | W, 76–66 | vs. Boston College | 15–3, 7–0 ACC |
| 22 | Monday | W, 85–64 | vs. Wake Forest | 16–3, 8–0 ACC |
| 27 | Saturday | W, 75–68 | at Florida State | 17–3, 9–0 ACC |
| 30 | Tuesday | L, 74–73 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 9–1 ACC |
| February | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | W, 93–84 | vs. No. 10 Duke | 18–4, 10–1 ACC |
| 6 | Tuesday | L, 80–76 | vs. Clemson | 18–5, 10–2 ACC |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 75–72 | at Miami | 19–5, 11–2 ACC |
| 13 | Tuesday | L, 86–79 | at Syracuse | 19–6, 11–3 ACC |
| 17 | Saturday | W, 96–81 | vs. Virginia Tech | 20–6, 12–3 ACC |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 54–44 | at Virginia | 21–6, 13–3 ACC |
| 26 | Monday | W, 75–71 | vs. Miami | 22–6, 14–3 ACC |
| March | ||||
| 2 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | vs. N.C. State | ESPN |
| 5 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Notre Dame | ACCN |
| 9 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 10 Duke | ESPN |
| 12–16 | Tuesday- Saturday | ACC tournament Washington |
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