By R.L. Bynum
No. 9 North Carolina’s fifth Quad 3 victory Monday night didn’t change the Tar Heels’ NET ranking, but more bracket projections are shifting the Tar Heels up to the No. 1 seed line with Selection Sunday 19 days away.
League-leading UNC men (22–6, 14–3 ACC) remained ninth in the NET rankings after RJ Davis’ career-high 42 points led the Tar Heels to a 75–71 victory over Miami, assuring them of no worse than a No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament.
ESPN projects UNC’s women (18–10, 10–6), with a NET ranking of 30, as a No. 6 seed in the Portland 4 region, playing first- and second-round games in Baton Rouge, La., with a potential second-round game against No. 9 LSU on its home court.
On Monday, only eight of 100 projections on Bracket Matrix had UNC’s men as a No. 1 seed, but now 23 of 107 have the Tar Heels as a No. 1 seed. Many bracket projections hadn’t been updated since late last week.
Jerry Palm’s Tuesday projection for CBS has UNC as the No. 1 seed in the West Regional, to be played at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, with Caleb Love’s No. 6 Arizona team (21–6) as the No. 2 seed. Joe Lunardi’s latest ESPN projection released Tuesday still has the Tar Heels as the No. 2 seed in the East Regional in Boston, where he has No. 3 UConn (25–3) as the No. 1 seed.
It’s a given at this point that Carolina will play its first- and second-round games at Charlotte’s Spectrum Center.
In other metrics, UNC is third in KPI, ninth in KenPom, 10th in T-Rank and 12th in BPI.
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–7): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
No. 10 Duke (21–6, 12–4), 10th in the NET rankings, has an average of the third-best No. 3 seed in Bracket Matrix, but Palm has the Blue Devils as a No. 4 seed in the Midwest Regional, where he has Purdue as the No. 1 seed. Lunardi has the Blue Devils as the No. 3 seed in the East. Both projections have Duke playing first- and second-round games in Pittsburgh.
Lunardi and Palm both have five ACC teams making the field. In addition to UNC and Duke, both have Clemson (19–8, 9–7; No. 5 in the East, according to Lunardi; No. 5 in the West, according to Palm), Wake Forest (18–9, 10–6; No. 10 seed in South; No. 11 in First Four) and Virginia (20–8, 11–6; No. 11 in First Four; No. 10 in the South).
Charlie Creme’s ESPN projection has nine ACC teams in the women’s field. In addition to UNC, he has No. 5 Virginia Tech (23–4, 14–2; No. 2 in Albany 2), No. 12 N.C. State (23–5, 11–5; No. 3 in Albany 1), No. 17 Notre Dame (21–6, 11–5; No. 5 in Portland 4), Syracuse (23–5, 13–4, No. 5 in Albany 1), No. 22 Louisville (22–7, 11–5; No. 6 in Portland 3), Duke (18–9, 10–6; No. 7 in Portland 3), Florida State (20–8, 11–5; No. 8 in Albany 2) and Miami (17–10, 7–9; No. 9 in Albany 1) making the tournament.
UNC could be as high as the No. 5 seed in the ACC women’s tournament. That will happen if the Tar Heels win at Boston College on Thursday and at home against Duke on Sunday, Florida State beats Louisville on Thursday, and Louisville beats Notre Dame on Sunday.
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UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 23
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 19 (5.34)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 95
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 34
NET strength of schedule: 36
KenPom: 30
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 26
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 161 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 19 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 251 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 346 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 126 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 158 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 96 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 301 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 129 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 30 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 69 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 38 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 66 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 59 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 65 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 95 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 14 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 167 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 85 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 110 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 35 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 85 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 13 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 54 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 36 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson, VT or Wake Forest | 36, 54 or 66 | 1, 2 or 2 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* | WAB* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Duke | 17–1 | 29–2 | 1 | 2 |
| No. 10 Virginia | 15–3 | 27–4 | 13 | 11 |
| Miami | 13–5 | 24–7 | 32 | 28 |
| No. 19 North Carolina | 12–6 | 24–7 | 23 | 19 |
| Clemson | 12–6 | 22–9 | 36 | 33 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 11–7 | 22–9 | 14 | 25 |
| N.C. State | 10–8 | 19–12 | 35 | 45 |
| Florida State | 10–8 | 17–14 | 69 | 74 |
| California | 9–9 | 21–10 | 65 | 49 |
| Stanford | 9–9 | 20–11 | 59 | 51 |
| SMU | 8–10 | 19–12 | 39 | 50 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–10 | 19–12 | 53 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 7–11 | 16–15 | 64 | 81 |
| Syracuse | 6–12 | 15–16 | 83 | 92 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–13 | 12–19 | 109 | 146 |
| Notre Dame | 4–14 | 13–18 | 93 | 121 |
| Boston College | 4–14 | 11–20 | 159 | 217 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–16 | 11–20 | 167 | 210 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
No. 1 Duke 76, No. 19 North Carolina 61
Boston College 77, Notre Dame 69
Clemson 79, Georgia Tech 76
No. 24 Louisville 92, Miami 89
Florida State 92, SMU 78
Stanford 85, N.C. State 84
Wake Forest 80, California 73
Pittsburgh 71, Syracuse 69, OT
END OF REGULAR SEASON
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday through Saturday
UNC season statistics
| Date | Month/day | Time/score | Opponent/event (current ranks) | Record/TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 27 | Friday | W, 117–53 | vs. St. Augustine’s | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 6 | Monday | W, 86–70 | vs. Radford | 1–0 |
| 12 | Sunday | W, 90–68 | vs. Lehigh | 2–0 |
| 17 | Friday | W, 77–52 | vs. UC Riverside | 3–0 |
| Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas | ||||
| 22 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | Northern Iowa | 4–0 |
| 23 | Thursday | L, 83–81, OT | Villanova | 4–1 |
| 24 | Friday | W, 87–72 | Arkansas | 5–1 |
| ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | ||||
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 100–92 | vs. No. 4 Tennessee | 6–1 |
| December | ||||
| 2 | Saturday | W, 78–70 | vs. Florida State | 7–1, 1–0 ACC |
| Jimmy V Classic in New York | ||||
| 5 | Tuesday | L, 87–67 | No. 3 Connecticut | 7–2 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 16 | Saturday | L, 87–83 | No. 16 Kentucky | 7–3 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 20 | Wednesday | W, 81–69 | Oklahoma | 8–3 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Friday | W, 105–60 | vs. Charleston Southern | 9–3 |
| January | ||||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 70–57 | at Pittsburgh | 10–3, 2–0 ACC |
| 6 | Saturday | W, 65–55 | at Clemson | 11–3, 3–0 ACC |
| 10 | Wednesday | W, 67–54 | at N.C. State | 12–3, 4–0 ACC |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 103–67 | vs. Syracuse | 13–3, 5–0 ACC |
| 17 | Wednesday | W, 86–70 | vs. Louisville | 14–3, 6–0 ACC |
| 20 | Saturday | W, 76–66 | vs. Boston College | 15–3, 7–0 ACC |
| 22 | Monday | W, 85–64 | vs. Wake Forest | 16–3, 8–0 ACC |
| 27 | Saturday | W, 75–68 | at Florida State | 17–3, 9–0 ACC |
| 30 | Tuesday | L, 74–73 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 9–1 ACC |
| February | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | W, 93–84 | vs. No. 10 Duke | 18–4, 10–1 ACC |
| 6 | Tuesday | L, 80–76 | vs. Clemson | 18–5, 10–2 ACC |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 75–72 | at Miami | 19–5, 11–2 ACC |
| 13 | Tuesday | L, 86–79 | at Syracuse | 19–6, 11–3 ACC |
| 17 | Saturday | W, 96–81 | vs. Virginia Tech | 20–6, 12–3 ACC |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 54–44 | at Virginia | 21–6, 13–3 ACC |
| 26 | Monday | W, 75–71 | vs. Miami | 22–6, 14–3 ACC |
| March | ||||
| 2 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | vs. N.C. State | ESPN |
| 5 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Notre Dame | ACCN |
| 9 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 10 Duke | ESPN |
| 12–16 | Tuesday- Saturday | ACC tournament Washington |
