By R.L. Bynum
There wasn’t much good NET rankings news for No. 9 North Carolina two weeks away from Selection Sunday after Saturday’s Quad 3 home victory over N.C. State.
Following the 79–70 win, the Tar Heels (23–6, 15–3 ACC) fell one spot to 10th in the NET rankings because, although the loss at Georgia Tech (13–16, 6–12) was upgraded, the loss at Syracuse (20–10, 11–8) and the win over Wake Forest (18–11, 10–8) were downgraded.
League-leading UNC, despite four straight wins, fell in other metrics as well, from 3 to 4 in KPI, from 10 to 13 in T-Rank, from 11 to 13 in ESPN’s BPI and from 9 to 10 in KenPom.
The NET rankings are strange, and there was more evidence on Monday. With neither UNC or Duke playing a game on Monday, UNC went back to ninth in the NET rankings, swapping places with the Duke, which went from ninth to 10th.
In the average of 97 bracket projections on Bracket Matrix, UNC has fallen behind Tennessee (which the Tar Heels beat 100–92 at home on Nov. 29) as the second-highest No. 2 seed.
Only eight of those projections, including Jerry Palm’s projection for CBS (No. 1 in the West), have the Tar Heels as a No. 1 seed, and that number hasn’t changed from early last week. Joe Lunardi’s ESPN projection has UNC as the No. 2 seed in the East.
A positive is that Tuesday’s 7 p.m. home finale (ACC Network) against Notre Dame (12–17, 7–11) has gone from Quad 4 to Quad 3 after the Irish’s home wins over Wake Forest (70–65) on Tuesday and Clemson (69–62) on Saturday. Notre Dame’s NET ranking, 140 before those two wins, is up to 125.
Carolina can clinch a share of the ACC regular-season title with a win over the Irish, but won’t be able to clinch the No. 1 seed unless N.C. State (17–12, 9–9) upsets No. 10 Duke (23–6, 14–4) at 7 p.m. Monday (ESPN) in Raleigh.
The Tar Heels likely will move up when the new AP Top 25 comes out on Monday after losses Saturday by No. 5 Marquette (89–75 at No. 12 Creighton) and No. 7 Kansas (82–74 at No. 15 Baylor.)
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
UNC’s win over State could move from Quad 3 to Quad 2 if the Wolfpack’s NET ranking of 80 moves four higher.
Georgia Tech jumped five spots to 134, which moved the Tar Heels’ 74–73 road loss to the Yellow Jackets on Jan. 30 from Quad 3 to Quad 2. It’s precarious since it could go back to Quad 3 if the Jackets fall two spots.
Carolina’s 86–79 road loss to Syracuse on Feb. 13 went from Quad 2 to Quad 3 when Syracuse’s NET ranking fell to 84, nine below the threshold to be a Quad 2, despite the Orange winning four straight games. One was a Quad 3 victory (Notre Dame), and another was a Quad 3 win (Louisville).
The 85–64 home win on Jan. 22 over Wake Forest went from Quad 1 to Quad 2 after the Deacons followed up a 70–65 road loss Tuesday to Notre Dame with an 87–76 road loss Saturday to Virginia Tech (16–13, 8–10). That dropped Wake Forest’s NET ranking to 31, one below the needed 30 for a Quad 1 win.
Duke, which had fallen to a NET ranking of 13 after Wednesday’s 84–59 Quad 4 win over Louisville, shot up four spots to 9th after Saturday’s 73–48 home Quad 2 win over Virginia.
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UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* | WAB* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Duke | 17–1 | 29–2 | 1 | 2 |
| No. 10 Virginia | 15–3 | 27–4 | 13 | 11 |
| Miami | 13–5 | 24–7 | 32 | 28 |
| No. 19 North Carolina | 12–6 | 24–7 | 23 | 19 |
| Clemson | 12–6 | 22–9 | 36 | 33 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 11–7 | 22–9 | 14 | 25 |
| N.C. State | 10–8 | 19–12 | 35 | 45 |
| Florida State | 10–8 | 17–14 | 69 | 74 |
| California | 9–9 | 21–10 | 65 | 49 |
| Stanford | 9–9 | 20–11 | 59 | 51 |
| SMU | 8–10 | 19–12 | 39 | 50 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–10 | 19–12 | 53 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 7–11 | 16–15 | 64 | 81 |
| Syracuse | 6–12 | 15–16 | 83 | 92 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–13 | 12–19 | 109 | 146 |
| Notre Dame | 4–14 | 13–18 | 93 | 121 |
| Boston College | 4–14 | 11–20 | 159 | 217 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–16 | 11–20 | 167 | 210 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
No. 1 Duke 76, No. 19 North Carolina 61
Boston College 77, Notre Dame 69
Clemson 79, Georgia Tech 76
No. 24 Louisville 92, Miami 89
Florida State 92, SMU 78
Stanford 85, N.C. State 84
Wake Forest 80, California 73
Pittsburgh 71, Syracuse 69, OT
END OF REGULAR SEASON
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday through Saturday
Non-conference schedule
| Date | Month/day | Opponent/event (final ranks) |
|---|---|---|
| October | Exhibitions | |
| 9 | 7 p.m. Friday | vs. USC in Greensboro |
| 18 | 5 p.m. Sunday | vs. Indiana in Indianapolis |
| 27 | Tuesday | vs. Charlotte |
| November | Regular season | |
| 2 | Monday | vs. Western Carolina |
| 6 | Friday | vs. Wofford |
| 10 | Tuesday | vs. Wyoming |
| 13 | Friday | vs. Georgia |
| 20 | Friday | vs. Marshall |
| 23 | Monday | vs. Monmouth |
| 27 | Friday | Dick Vitale Invitational vs. West Virginia in Charlotte |
| December | ||
| 1 | Tuesday | ACC/SEC Challenge vs. No. 13 Arkansas |
| 6 | Sunday | vs. Butler |
| 12 | Saturday | at Georgetown |
| 15 | Tuesday | Tobacco Road Classic vs. N.C. State in Greensboro |
| 19 | 2:30 Saturday, CBS | CBS Sports Classic vs. Kentucky in New York |
| 21 | Monday | vs. The Citadel |
| January | ||
| 30 | Saturday | Nashville Hoops Showdown vs. No. 5 Illinois in Nashville, Tenn. |
ACC opponents
Home and away: Duke and Louisville
Home only: California, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, SMU, Stanford and Virginia
Away only: Boston College, Florida State, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest
Don’t play: Clemson
