Projections of UNC as No. 1 seed shoot up dramatically

R.L. Bynum,

By R.L. Bynum

No. 4 North Carolina’s victory over No. 11 Duke vastly improved the Tar Heels’ NCAA resume ahead of Selection Sunday this weekend. The proof is the dramatic rise in the number of bracket projections from Sunday to Monday that have UNC as a No. 1 seed.

Although projections from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm of CBS still have UNC as a No. 2 seed in the East Regional, 19 of the 108 projections listed on Bracket Matrix have the Tar Heels as a No. 1 seed. That’s after only one of 110 projections on Sunday had UNC as a No. 1 seed.

Carolina (25–6), seventh in the NET rankings, could earn a No. 1 seed by adding an ACC tournament title to the outright regular-season title. A third victory over Duke (10th in the NET) in the championship game would make it even more likely.

Slip-ups in league tournaments by No. 5 Tennessee (24–7; fifth in the NET) and No. 6 Arizona (24–7; fourth in the NET), both regular-season champions, may be needed, though.

The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.

NCAA quadrant system

Quadrant 1 (UNC was 9–3): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC was 7–4): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC was 6–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC was 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower

After Caleb Love’s Wildcats lost at unranked USC on Saturday, they are the second No. 2 seed on most projections, with Carolina as the top No. 2 seed. The Vols remain the fourth No. 1 seed on most projections.

In other metrics, UNC is fifth in KPI, eighth in KenPom and Bart Tovik’s T-Rank and 11th in ESPN’s BPI.

Carolina and Tennessee appear to be locks to play their first- and second-round games at Charlotte’s Spectrum Center.

UNC’s NCAA resume

(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 8
Season-high: 6 (for five days in January)
Season-low: 38 (Dec. 9)
Average opponent NET: 91
Average NET win: 101
Average NET loss: 53
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 9
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 9
KPI: 5
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 9

UNC quad schedule breakdown

(Through Saturday’s games)

OpponentNET
ranking		Quad
designation		Outcome
Radford2364Win
Lehigh2674Win
UC Riverside2304Win
(N) Northern Iowa1093Win
(N) Villanova411Loss
(N) Arkansas1153Win
Tennessee71Win
Florida State963Win
(N) Connecticut21Loss
(N) Kentucky191Loss
(N) Oklahoma461Win
Charleston Southern3154Win
At Pittsburgh401Win
At Clemson351Win
At N.C. State631Win
Syracuse842Win
Louisville2174Win
At Boston College802Win
Wake Forest432Win
At Florida State962Win
At Georgia Tech1272Loss
Duke101Win
Clemson352Loss
At Miami1012Win
At Syracuse843Loss
Virginia Tech602Win
At Virginia541Win
Miami1013Win
N.C. State632Win
Notre Dame1243Win
At Duke101Win
Florida State962Win
Pittsburgh401Win
N.C. State632Loss
Quad designations are according to the current NET rankings. The only designation that matters is the designation on Selection Sunday.
DateMonth/dayScoreOpponent/event
(current ranks)		Record
October
27FridayW, 117–53vs. St. Augustine’sExhibition
November
6MondayW, 86–70vs. Radford1–0
12SundayW, 90–68vs. Lehigh2–0
17FridayW, 77–52vs. UC Riverside3–0
Battle 4 Atlantis
in the Bahamas
22WednesdayW, 91–69Northern Iowa4–0
23ThursdayL, 83–81, OTVillanova4–1
24FridayW, 87–72Arkansas5–1
ACC/SEC
Men’s Challenge
29WednesdayW, 100–92vs. No. 6 Tennessee6–1
December
2SaturdayW, 78–70vs. Florida State7–1,
1–0 ACC
Jimmy V Classic
in New York
5TuesdayL, 87–67No. 1 Connecticut7–2
CBS Sports Classic
in Atlanta
16SaturdayL, 87–83No. 12 Kentucky7–3
Jumpman Invitational
in Charlotte
20WednesdayW, 81–69Oklahoma8–3
—————————
29FridayW, 105–60vs. Charleston Southern9–3
January
2TuesdayW, 70–57at Pittsburgh10–3, 2–0 ACC
6SaturdayW, 65–55at Clemson11–3, 3–0 ACC
10WednesdayW, 67–54at N.C. State12–3, 4–0 ACC
13SaturdayW, 103–67vs. Syracuse13–3, 5–0 ACC
17WednesdayW, 86–70vs. Louisville14–3, 6–0 ACC
20SaturdayW, 76–66vs. Boston College15–3, 7–0 ACC
22MondayW, 85–64vs. Wake Forest16–3, 8–0 ACC
27SaturdayW, 75–68at Florida State17–3, 9–0 ACC
30TuesdayL, 74–73at Georgia Tech17–4, 9–1 ACC
February
3SaturdayW, 93–84vs. No. 13 Duke18–4, 10–1 ACC
6TuesdayL, 80–76vs. Clemson18–5, 10–2 ACC
10SaturdayW, 75–72at Miami19–5, 11–2 ACC
13TuesdayL, 86–79at Syracuse19–6, 11–3 ACC
17SaturdayW, 96–81vs. Virginia Tech20–6, 12–3 ACC
24SaturdayW, 54–44at Virginia21–6, 13–3 ACC
26MondayW, 75–71vs. Miami22–6, 14–3 ACC
March
2SaturdayW, 79–70vs. N.C. State23–6, 15–3 ACC
5TuesdayW, 84–51vs. Notre Dame24–6, 16–3 ACC
9SaturdayW, 84–79at No. 13 Duke25–6, 17–3 ACC
ACC tournament
Washington
14ThursdayW, 92–67Quarterfinals:
Florida State		26–6
15FridayW, 72–65Semifinals:
Pittsburgh		27–6
16SaturdayL, 84–76Final:
N.C. State		27–7
NCAA tournament
21ThursdayW, 90–62First round in Charlotte:
Wagner		28–7
23SaturdayW, 85–69Second round in Charlotte:
Michigan State		29–7
28ThursdayL, 89–87Sweet 16 in Los Angeles:
No. 19 Alabama 		29–8

Published by R.L. Bynum

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