By R.L. Bynum
With Selection Sunday 60 days away, NCAA tournament bracket projections keep improving for North Carolina and bubble talk has died down.
One suggests that the Tar Heels (12–6, 5–1 ACC; 34 in NET rankings) will play their first- and second-round games in Raleigh, and another has them facing Caleb Love’s unranked Arizona team (11–5; 13) in the first round.
But many have UNC — which beat California (8–9, 1–5) 79–53 for its fourth consecutive win Wednesday — in the dreaded game between the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, which means a potential second-round game against the No. 1 seed. That worked out for UNC in 2022, when the No. 8-seed Tar Heels rolled past Marquette 95–63 in the first round and upset No. 1-seed Baylor 93–86 in overtime on their way to the national championship game.
Plenty of fluctuations will come in the next two months, many out of Carolina’s control. A good example is that UNC’s NET ranking moved up two spots to 35th after Monday’s games, only to fall back to 37th after Tuesday’s games, even though the Tar Heels didn’t play either night.
The consensus of 59 projections on Bracket Matrix lists UNC as the lowest No. 9 seed, the highest for the Tar Heels since early in the season. All projections have them making the field after a few had left them out in recent weeks. Twenty-six project UNC will be in an 8–9 game.
The highest projection is from DelphiBracketology at No. 7, with the lowest a No. 11 seed and a First Four assignment predicted by Road2March.
Here’s where the four of the most prominent experts have the Tar Heels:
In a bracket released Monday, Jerry Palm of CBS has Carolina as the No. 8 seed in the South Region, facing No. 9-seed Nebraska (12–4; 45th) in Lexington, Ky., for the right to likely face No. 1 Auburn (16–1; 1st) in the second round. Palm has UNC as the third No. 8 seed, suggesting he thinks the Tar Heels have some work to do to avoid the dreaded 8–9 game.
In his first bracket projection, released on Monday, Patrick Stevens of The Washington Post has UNC as the No. 10 seed in the West Region. He sees Carolina playing No. 7-seed Georgia (14–3, 27th), the No. 23-ranked team, in a first-round game in Wichita, Kansas. With a win, his bracket would have the Tar Heels likely facing No. 2-seed Houston (14–3, 3rd), the No. 10-ranked team in the second round. No. 4-ranked Alabama (14–3; 8th) is the No. 1 seed in the region.
Wrote Stevens: “North Carolina has only one Quadrant 1 victory (UCLA), but none of the team sheet metrics has the Tar Heels close to being outside the top 50. They need to be careful against the ACC’s dregs, but they’re not in poor shape at this stage.”
For the first time in several projections, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi doesn’t include Carolina in the “Last four byes” list. Like Stevens, he projects UNC to meet Georgia in the first round, but as the No. 10 seed in the East Region in a game at Raleigh’s Lenovo Center. He also has No. 3 Duke (15–2, 7–0; 2nd) playing in Raleigh as the East’s No. 1 seed.
Joe Rexrode of The Athletic projects the intriguing first-round matchup with Love and the Wildcats. In his bracket released Tuesday, he has UNC as a No. 9 seed, facing Arizona in the first round of the Midwest Regional in Lexington, Ky., with a potential second-round game against No. 6-ranked Tennessee (16–1; 4th).
UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
UNC schedule
| Date | Month/day | Opponent/event (final ranks) |
|---|---|---|
| October | Exhibitions | |
| 9 | 7 p.m. Friday, ACCN | vs. USC in Greensboro |
| 18 | 5 p.m. Sunday | vs. Indiana in Indianapolis |
| 27 | 7:30 Tuesday, ACCN Extra | vs. Charlotte |
| November | Regular season | |
| 2 | Monday | vs. Western Carolina |
| 6 | Friday | vs. Wofford |
| 10 | Tuesday | vs. Wyoming |
| 13 | Friday | vs. Georgia |
| 20 | Friday | vs. Marshall |
| 23 | Monday | vs. Monmouth |
| 27 | Friday, 7 p.m. | Dick Vitale Invitational vs. West Virginia in Charlotte |
| December | ||
| 1 | Tuesday, 7:30, ESPN2 | ACC/SEC Challenge vs. No. 13 Arkansas |
| 6 | Sunday | vs. Butler |
| 12 | Saturday afternoon | at Georgetown |
| 15 | 7 p.m. Tuesday | Tobacco Road Classic vs. N.C. State in Greensboro |
| 19 | 2:30 Saturday, CBS | CBS Sports Classic vs. Kentucky in New York |
| 21 | Monday | vs. The Citadel |
| 30 | Wednesday | vs. California |
| January | ||
| 2 | Saturday | at Boston College |
| 5 | 7 p.m. Tuesday | at Louisville |
| 9 | Saturday | vs. N.C. State |
| 13 | Wednesday | at Florida State |
| 16 | Saturday | vs. Stanford |
| 19 | Tuesday | vs. No. 17 Virginia |
| 23 | Saturday | at Syracuse |
| 26 | Tuesday | vs. SMU |
| 30 | Saturday | Nashville Hoops Showdown vs. No. 5 Illinois in Nashville, Tenn. |
| February | ||
| 2 | Tuesday | at Notre Dame |
| 6 | Saturday | vs. Georgia Tech |
| 8 | Monday, 7 p.m, ESPN | vs. Louisville |
| 13 | Saturday | at No. 4 Duke |
| 20 | Saturday | at Wake Forest |
| 22 | Monday, 7 p.m, ESPN | vs. No. 24 Miami |
| 27 | Saturday | at Virginia Tech |
| March | ||
| 2 | Tuesday | at Pittsburgh |
| 6 | Saturday | vs. No. 4 Duke |
| 9–13 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament in Greensboro |
Photo by Smith Hardy
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