By R.L. Bynum
CHAPEL HILL — North Carolina’s damaging 72–71 Quad 3 home loss Saturday to Stanford didn’t sink the Tar Heels in the NET rankings as much as expected, but they lost a Quad 1 opportunity as the number of ACC teams with a chance at an NCAA berth dwindles.
The Tar Heels (12–7, 5–2 ACC) only fell four spots in the NET to 38th after the loss to the Cardinal, which is one spot lower than they were after the win at N.C. State and before the victory over California.
Fifth-year guard RJ Davis has conveyed to his teammates the importance of every game left on UNC’s schedule.
“I just told them we need every game in terms of staying on our path and putting ourselves in a good position for March,” Davis said. “I know what it looks like. I’ve been there my junior year when I didn’t make it at all. I want to avoid that again. You’re not going to win all 12 games in one day. So just understand that there’s a sense of urgency, but a sense of focus as well.”
There is little hope that the designation of UNC’s loss to Stanford will change. Even though the Cardinal (12–6, 4–3) moved up eight spots to 77th, Stanford would have to ascend to 55 for the defeat to become Quad 2.
The consensus of 68 bracket projections on Bracket Matrix, most made before the Stanford loss, have UNC as the second-highest No. 9 seed.
In projections released Friday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS’s Jerry Palm both had UNC as the No. 9 seed in the South Region, playing a first-round game in Lexington, Ky., with a possible second-round matchup with No. 1-seed Auburn. Lunardi has Carolina meeting West Virginia in a first-round game, while Palm sees the Tar Heels meeting Central Florida.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 4–3; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–1; 3 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 6–0; 2 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
Pittsburgh’s four-game losing streak has, for the moment, denied UNC a Quad 1 chance. With their 78–75 overtime home loss to Clemson on Saturday, the Panthers (12–6, 3–4) fell three spots to 33rd in the NET.
Carolina’s Jan. 28 game at Pittsburgh still comfortably qualifies as a Quad 1 game, but the Panthers’ game in Chapel Hill on Feb. 8 has fallen just below that threshold. That second game could return to a Quad 1 if Pitt’s NET ranking rises to at least 30.
Pitt is off until Saturday, when it plays at Syracuse, the game before welcoming UNC to the Petersen Events Center.
For now, Carolina still has four Quad 1 games left on the schedule after the game at Pitt: Feb. 1 at No. 3-ranked Duke (16–2, 8–0; 2nd in the NET rankings), Feb. 10 at Clemson (15–4, 7–1; 31st), Feb. 24 at Florida State (13–5, 4–3; 66th) and March 8 in the Smith Center against Duke.
UNC has four remaining Quad 3 games: Feb. 15 at Syracuse (9–9, 3–4; 155th), Feb. 19 vs. N.C. State (9–9, 2–5; 119th), Feb. 22 vs. Virginia (8–10, 3–4; 140th) and March 4 at Virginia Tech (8–10, 3–4; 184th). The Tar Heels have two remaining Quad 4 games, both at home: Saturday against Boston College (9–9, 1–6; 226th) and March 1 against Miami (4–14, 0–7; 234th).
According to @JBRBracketology, N.C. State became the ninth ACC team to be eliminated from at-large contention, joining Virginia Tech, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, California, Notre Dame and Virginia. If true, that means that an NCAA tournament berth is already out of reach for half the league.
The Wolfpack fell 13 spots to 119th after Saturday’s 65–62 home loss to California for State’s third consecutive loss.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 25
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 122
Average NET win: 141
Average NET loss: 44
NET strength of schedule: 50
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 29
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 199 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 14 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 243 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 340 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 170 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 146 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 95 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 286 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 129 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 40 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 289 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 102 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 70 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 78 | 2 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 51 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 85 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 18 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 143 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 73 | 2 | |
| F7 | Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 39 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 114 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 26 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 73 | 2 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 56 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 31 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 9–0 | 20–1 | 2 |
| No. 22 Clemson | 8–1 | 18–4 | 31 |
| No. 17 Virginia | 7–2 | 18–3 | 18 |
| N.C. State | 7–2 | 16–6 | 26 |
| Miami | 6–3 | 17–5 | 39 |
| No. 16 North Carolina | 5–3 | 17–4 | 25 |
| No. 20 Louisville | 5–4 | 15–6 | 17 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–5 | 16–7 | 56 |
| SMU | 4–4 | 15–6 | 34 |
| California | 4–5 | 16–6 | 51 |
| Syracuse | 4–5 | 13–9 | 78 |
| Stanford | 3–6 | 14–8 | 77 |
| Florida State | 3–6 | 10–12 | 102 |
| Boston College | 2–6 | 9–12 | 152 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–7 | 11–11 | 143 |
| Notre Dame | 2–7 | 11–11 | 85 |
| Wake Forest | 2–7 | 11–11 | 70 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–7 | 9–13 | 114 |
* — Through Saturday games
Saturday’s games
No. 16 North Carolina 91, Georgia Tech 75
No. 4 Duke 72, Virginia Tech 58
N.C. State 96, Wake Forest 78
No. 22 Clemson 63, Pittsburgh 52
No. 17 Virginia 73, Boston College 66
No. 23 Louisville 88, SMU 74
California 86, Miami 81
Florida State 88, Stanford 80
Syracuse 86, Notre Dame 72
Monday’s game
Syracuse at No. 16 North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
Boston College at No. 4 Duke, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Pittsburgh at No. 17 Virginia, 9 p.m., ACC Network
N.C. State at SMU, 9 p.m, ESPN2
Wednesday’s games
Notre Dame at No. 20 Louisville, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Georgia Tech at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
No. 22 Clemson at Stanford, 10 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday’s games
Syracuse at No. 17 Virginia, noon
No. 20 Louisville at Wake Forest, noon, ACC Network
Virginia Tech at N.C. State, 1:30, The CW
Miami at Boston College, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Pittsburgh, 3:45, The CW
Florida State at Notre Dame, 4 p.m., ACC Network
No. 4 Duke at No. 16 North Carolina, 6:30, ESPN
No. 22 Clemson at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Stanford, 8 p.m., ESPNU
UNC statistics
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 13 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 14 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 7 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 17 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 22 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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