By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina’s 72–71 Quad 3 loss to Stanford has the bubble talk simmering again for the Tar Heels, with one projection sending them to the First Four in Dayton.
The consensus of 69 bracket projections listed on Bracket Matrix, which had UNC (12–7, 5–2 ACC; 38th in the NET rankings) as the second-highest No. 9 seed before the loss to the Cardinal, now has the Tar Heels as the highest No. 10 seed. Fourteen project them as a No. 8 seed, and seven as a No. 11 seed.
That makes Tuesday night’s 9 o’clock game (ESPN) at Wake Forest (14–4, 6–1) even more important for UNC’s NCAA tournament resume.
The Demon Deacons are 77th in the NET, just below the 75 threshold to make it a Quad 1 game. A UNC win undoubtedly drops Wake Forest in the NET and will be a Quad 2 win. That could change if Wake Forest rebounds, but it hosts No. 2 Duke (16–2, 8–0; 2nd in NET) on Saturday and visits No. 25 Louisville (14–5, 7–1; 29th in NET) on Tuesday.
There was bad news Monday when La Salle (10–8) lost Sunday at Massachusetts 82–60, dropping the Explorers 16 spots in the NET to 168, moving UNC’s 93–67 home win on Dec. 14 from Quad 3 to Quad 4.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
Ron Rexrode at The Athletic has Carolina’s most pessimistic and daunting projection.
Rexrode’s bracket, released Tuesday, has North Carolina and Texas (12–6; 40th in the NET) as No. 11 seeds playing in the First Four in Dayton. He has the Tar Heels as the last team to make the field.
In his bracket, a win sends the Tar Heels to Wichita, Kansas, for a first-round East Region game against No. 6-seed UConn (13–5; 32nd in NET), the No. 19-ranked two-time reigning national champion. Duke is the top East seed in his bracket.
Neither Joe Lunardi of ESPN nor Jerry Palm of CBS has UNC in the First Four, but Lunardi has returned the Tar Heels to his “last four byes” list he briefly took them off of after Wednesday’s 79–53 victory over Cal.
Lunardi, in a bracket released Tuesday, projects UNC as the No. 10 seed in the South Region, facing No. 7-seed Missouri (15–3; 23rd in NET) in Milwaukee, with a potential second-round matchup with No. 11-ranked Purdue (15–4; 10th in NET), the region’s No. 2 seed. No. 1-ranked Auburn (17–1; 1st in NET) is the No. 1 seed in that region.
Palm, in a bracket released Monday, has UNC as the No. 10 seed in the Midwest Region, playing No. 7 Georgia (14–4; 26th in NET) in Cleveland, with a potential second-round game against No. 8-ranked Michigan State (16–2; 16th in NET), the No. 2 seed. No. 4-ranked Alabama (15–3) is the No. 1 seed in that region.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
Schedule revealed so far
| Date | Month/day | Opponent/event (final ranks) |
|---|---|---|
| October | ||
| 9 | Friday, 7 p.m. | vs. USC in Greensboro (exhibition) |
| 18 | Sunday | vs. Indiana in Indianapolis (exhibition) |
| November | ||
| 2 | Monday | vs. Western Carolina |
| 6 | Friday | vs. Wofford |
| 10 | Tuesday | vs. Wyoming |
| 13 | Friday | vs. Georgia |
| 20 | Friday | vs. Marshall |
| 27 | Friday | vs. West Virginia in Charlotte |
| December | ||
| 1 | Tuesday | ACC/SEC Challenge vs. No. 13 Arkansas |
| 6 | Sunday | vs. Butler |
| 12 | Saturday | at Georgetown |
| 15 | Tuesday (date tentative) | vs. N.C. State in Greensboro |
| 19 | 2:30 Saturday | CBS Sports Classic vs. Kentucky in New York |
| 21 | Monday | vs. The Citadel |
| January | ||
| 30 | Saturday | vs. No. 5 Illinois in Nashville, Tenn. |
ACC games
Home and away: Duke and Louisville
Home only: California, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, SMU, Stanford and Virginia
Away only: Boston College, Florida State, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
