By R.L. Bynum
The good news for North Carolina after the Tar Heels’ 67–66 loss Tuesday night at Wake Forest is that it’s become a Quad 1 game, and they were still 38th in the latest NET rankings after the game.
Although the defeat didn’t change UNC’s NET ranking, it left the Tar Heels (12–8, 5–3 ACC) firmly in bubble territory 54 days from Selection Sunday. On Thursday, Carolina’s NET ranking fell to 39th.
Wake Forest (15–4, 7–1) moved up three spots in the NET to 74th, pushing the Deacons just above the 75 threshold to make the game Quad 1 for UNC.
The Deacons, who have won six straight games, face challenging games ahead, though. They host No. 2 Duke (16–2, 8–0; 2nd in NET) on Saturday and visit No. 25 Louisville (15–5, 8–1; 22nd in NET) on Tuesday.
It’s back to another home game that Carolina can’t afford to lose at 2:15 Saturday (The CW) when the Tar Heels face Boston College (9–10, 1–7; 234th in the NET), which has lost five games in a row. It’s the first of two remaining Quad 4 games, along with the March 1 home game against Miami (4–14, 0–7; 229th in NET).
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 4–3; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–1; 3 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 6–0; 2 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
The consensus of 74 bracket projections on Bracket Matrix, nearly all made before Tuesday’s game, has UNC as the third-highest No. 10 seed, which means a potential matchup with a No. 1 seed in the second round.
Read this story for a breakdown of where specific bracket projections put UNC, including one that sees the Tar Heels being sent to the First Four in Dayton.
The chances of UNC getting a double-bye in the ACC tournament took a hit because UNC is now — along with SMU (14–5, 5–3; 44th in NET) — two games behind Clemson (15–4, 7–1; 31st in NET) and Wake Forest for the final double-bye spot.
The Mustangs fell eight spots to 44th, and the Cardinals jumped seven spots to 22nd after Louisville’s 90–73 win Tuesday night at SMU.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 25
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 122
Average NET win: 141
Average NET loss: 44
NET strength of schedule: 50
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 29
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 199 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 14 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 243 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 340 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 170 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 146 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 95 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 286 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 129 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 40 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 289 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 102 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 70 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 78 | 2 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 51 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 85 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 18 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 143 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 73 | 2 | |
| F7 | Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 39 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 114 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 26 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 73 | 2 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 56 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 31 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 9–0 | 20–1 | 2 |
| No. 22 Clemson | 8–1 | 18–4 | 31 |
| No. 17 Virginia | 7–2 | 18–3 | 18 |
| N.C. State | 7–2 | 16–6 | 26 |
| Miami | 6–3 | 17–5 | 39 |
| No. 16 North Carolina | 5–3 | 17–4 | 25 |
| No. 20 Louisville | 5–4 | 15–6 | 17 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–5 | 16–7 | 56 |
| SMU | 4–4 | 15–6 | 34 |
| California | 4–5 | 16–6 | 51 |
| Syracuse | 4–5 | 13–9 | 78 |
| Stanford | 3–6 | 14–8 | 77 |
| Florida State | 3–6 | 10–12 | 102 |
| Boston College | 2–6 | 9–12 | 152 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–7 | 11–11 | 143 |
| Notre Dame | 2–7 | 11–11 | 85 |
| Wake Forest | 2–7 | 11–11 | 70 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–7 | 9–13 | 114 |
* — Through Saturday games
Saturday’s games
No. 16 North Carolina 91, Georgia Tech 75
No. 4 Duke 72, Virginia Tech 58
N.C. State 96, Wake Forest 78
No. 22 Clemson 63, Pittsburgh 52
No. 17 Virginia 73, Boston College 66
No. 23 Louisville 88, SMU 74
California 86, Miami 81
Florida State 88, Stanford 80
Syracuse 86, Notre Dame 72
Monday’s game
Syracuse at No. 16 North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
Boston College at No. 4 Duke, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Pittsburgh at No. 17 Virginia, 9 p.m., ACC Network
N.C. State at SMU, 9 p.m, ESPN2
Wednesday’s games
Notre Dame at No. 20 Louisville, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Georgia Tech at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
No. 22 Clemson at Stanford, 10 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday’s games
Syracuse at No. 17 Virginia, noon
No. 20 Louisville at Wake Forest, noon, ACC Network
Virginia Tech at N.C. State, 1:30, The CW
Miami at Boston College, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Pittsburgh, 3:45, The CW
Florida State at Notre Dame, 4 p.m., ACC Network
No. 4 Duke at No. 16 North Carolina, 6:30, ESPN
No. 22 Clemson at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Stanford, 8 p.m., ESPNU
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 13 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 14 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 7 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 17 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 22 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo by Smith Hardy
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