By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina’s 67–66 Quad 1 loss Wednesday at Wake Forest has sunk the Tar Heels near the bottom of the NCAA tournament bubble, according to the latest bracket projections, while the loss to Stanford was upgraded.
Stanford is up to 71st in the NET after Wednesday’s 88–51 home win over Miami, flipping the Tar Heels’ 72–71 Jan. 17 home loss to the Cardinal from Quad 3 to Quad 2.
The consensus of 77 projections on Bracket Matrix is that UNC (12–8, 5–3 ACC; 39th in NET) is the third-highest No. 10 seed. UNC is out of the field on 12 projections, a No. 8 seed in five brackets and No. 11 in 14.
Jerry Palm, in CBS’ projection released Friday afternoon, has UNC as a No. 11 seed in the East Region and playing in the First Four against New Mexico (15–4, 58th in NET), with a potential first-round matchup with No. 6-seed Michigan (15–5; 13th in NET) in Milwaukee. No. 2 Duke (16–2, 8–0; 2nd in NET) is the region’s No. 1 seed and Michigan State (16–2, 16th in NET) as the No. 2 seed.
Joe Lunardi’s latest ESPN projection, released Friday morning, has UNC as the fourth team on his “last four byes” list, meaning it is one spot away from being sent to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.
Lunardi projects the Tar Heels as the No. 10 seed in the Midwest Regional, facing Missouri (15–4; 27th in NET) in Wichita, Kansas, with a potential second-round matchup with No. 12-ranked Kansas (14–4; 8th in the NET), projected as the region’s No. 2 seed. No. 4 Alabama (16–3; 7th in NET) is the No. 1 seed in that bracket.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
Carolina’s home Quad 4 game at 2:15 p.m. (The CW) with Boston College (9–10, 1–7; 231 in NET) on Saturday can only hurt the Tar Heels’ NET ranking. As Stanford showed with its blowout of Miami, UNC could move up with a one-sided victory.
UNC has three Quad 1 chances to improve its NCAA resume in the four games after that: at Pittsburgh (12–6, 3–4; 32nd in the NET) on Tuesday, at No. 2 Duke (16–2, 8–0; 2nd) on Feb. 1, and at Clemson (16–4, 8–1; 31st) on Feb. 10. The Feb. 8 rematch with Pitt at home is a Quad 2 game.
Following that stretch, Carolina has two more Quad 1 chances: Feb. 24 at Florida State (13–6, 4–4; 71st) and at home against Duke on March 8.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| Date | Month/day | Scores | Opponent/event (current ranks) | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 17 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 11 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 9 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | W, 71–68 | vs. No. 1 Duke | 19–4, 7–3 |
| 10 | Tuesday | L, 75–66 | at No. 25 Miami | 19–5, 7–4 |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 79–65 | vs. Pittsburgh | 20–5, 8–4 |
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 82–58 | at N.C. State | 20–6, 8–5 |
| 21 | Saturday | W, 77–64 | at Syracuse | 21–6, 9–5 |
| 23 | Monday | W, 77–74 | vs. Louisville | 22–6, 10–5 |
| 28 | Saturday | W, 89–82 | vs. Virginia Tech | 23–6, 11–5 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | W, 67–63 | vs. Clemson | 24–6, 12–5 |
| 7 | Saturday | L, 76–61 | at No. 1 Duke | 24–7, 12–6 |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte | |
| 12 | Thursday | L, 80–79 | Quarterfinals: vs. Clemson | 24–8 |
| NCAA tournament | ||||
| 19 | Thursday | L, 82–78, OT | First round: vs. VCU in Greenville, S.C. | 24–9 |
Photo by Smith Hardy
