By R.L. Bynum
Even after surviving what would have been a devastating home loss to Boston College, North Carolina’s NCAA tournament hopes are teetering after the Tar Heels began a tough four-game stretch with a Quad 1 loss.
Only 50 of 86 bracket projections on Bracket Matrix have UNC in the field, with the average seed being the fourth-highest No. 11 seed. The Tar Heels (13–9, 6–4 ACC) were already in a bad position before Tuesday’s 73–65 loss at Pittsburgh dropped them from 40th to 42nd in the NET rankings, although they were back to 41 after Wednesday’s games.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS’s Jerry Palm, in brackets released Tuesday, both have the Tar Heels as the third of four teams in their “last four in” lists, a No. 11 seed and playing in Dayton, Ohio, in the First Four. Lunardi has Ohio State (12–8, 29th in the NET) as the opponent, while Palm predicts the Tar Heels will be matched up against New Mexico (16–4, 56th).
The DRatings website has UNC the highest, as a No. 8 seed.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
The loss to Pitt (14–6, 5–4; 34th in the NET) could shift UNC to “last four out” lists.
The challenges keep coming, with a visit to No. 2 Duke (18–2, 10–0; 3rd) at 6:30 Saturday and a rematch with Pitt in a Quad 2 game in Chapel Hill on Feb. 8 before visiting Clemson (17–4, 9–1; 30th) on Feb. 10 in another Quad 1 game.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* | WAB* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Duke | 17–1 | 29–2 | 1 | 2 |
| No. 10 Virginia | 15–3 | 27–4 | 13 | 11 |
| Miami | 13–5 | 24–7 | 32 | 28 |
| No. 19 North Carolina | 12–6 | 24–7 | 23 | 19 |
| Clemson | 12–6 | 22–9 | 36 | 33 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 11–7 | 22–9 | 14 | 25 |
| N.C. State | 10–8 | 19–12 | 35 | 45 |
| Florida State | 10–8 | 17–14 | 69 | 74 |
| California | 9–9 | 21–10 | 65 | 49 |
| Stanford | 9–9 | 20–11 | 59 | 51 |
| SMU | 8–10 | 19–12 | 39 | 50 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–10 | 19–12 | 53 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 7–11 | 16–15 | 64 | 81 |
| Syracuse | 6–12 | 15–16 | 83 | 92 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–13 | 12–19 | 109 | 146 |
| Notre Dame | 4–14 | 13–18 | 93 | 121 |
| Boston College | 4–14 | 11–20 | 159 | 217 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–16 | 11–20 | 167 | 210 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
No. 1 Duke 76, No. 19 North Carolina 61
Boston College 77, Notre Dame 69
Clemson 79, Georgia Tech 76
No. 24 Louisville 92, Miami 89
Florida State 92, SMU 78
Stanford 85, N.C. State 84
Wake Forest 80, California 73
Pittsburgh 71, Syracuse 69, OT
END OF REGULAR SEASON
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday through Saturday
Schedule revealed so far
| Date | Month/day | Opponent/event (final ranks) |
|---|---|---|
| October | ||
| 9 | Friday, 7 p.m. | vs. USC in Greensboro (exhibition) |
| 18 | Sunday | vs. Indiana in Indianapolis (exhibition) |
| November | ||
| 2 | Monday | vs. Western Carolina |
| 6 | Friday | vs. Wofford |
| 10 | Tuesday | vs. Wyoming |
| 13 | Friday | vs. Georgia |
| 20 | Friday | vs. Marshall |
| 27 | Friday | vs. West Virginia in Charlotte |
| December | ||
| 1 | Tuesday | ACC/SEC Challenge vs. No. 13 Arkansas |
| 6 | Sunday | vs. Butler |
| 12 | Saturday | at Georgetown |
| 15 | Tuesday (date tentative) | vs. N.C. State in Greensboro |
| 19 | 2:30 Saturday | CBS Sports Classic vs. Kentucky in New York |
| 21 | Monday | vs. The Citadel |
| January | ||
| 30 | Saturday | vs. No. 5 Illinois in Nashville, Tenn. |
ACC games
Home and away: Duke and Louisville
Home only: California, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, SMU, Stanford and Virginia
Away only: Boston College, Florida State, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
