By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina’s men’s basketball team clearly has a lot of work to do 43 days away from Selection Sunday, and that’s reflected in the latest bracket projections.
The Tar Heels (13–10, 6–5 ACC) are left out of the field on 49.4% of the projections listed on Bracket Matrix (45 of 91), with the highest projection as a No. 10 seed by three: by Jason Wells (released Monday), Guru and NP.
UNC fell three spots to 44th in the NET rankings after Saturday’s 87–70 loss at No. 2 Duke (19–2, 11–0), which moved up one spot to 2nd in the NET. After Sunday’s games, the Tar Heels slipped to 45th.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
Most prominent projections have downgraded UNC, with Jerry Palm of CBS and Patrick Stevens of The Washington Post both putting the Tar Heels in their ‘first four out” lists.
Palm, in a projection released Friday, has the Tar Heels as the first team in his “first four out” list, just behind Wake Forest (16–6, 8–3; 69h in NET), which is in the fourth team in this “last four in” list. Stevens, in a projection released Thursday, has the Deacons first on his “first four out” list, with the Tar Heels second.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi still has Carolina in his bracket released Friday, but as the third team in his “Last four in” list. He puts the Heels as a No. 10 seed, playing in the First Four against San Diego State (15–5; 49th in NET) in Dayton, Ohio. In his bracket, a First Four win would put UNC up against No. 7-seed St. John’s (19–3; 24rd in NET) in the first round of the West Regional in Cleveland.
Made For March looked at UNC’s projected finish and showed what the tournament selection committee has done in recent years with other teams with similar resumes. It found that they got an average seed of 10.2. (Below image from its its tweet):
There was a change in quad designations for one of the remaining games. The Feb. 15 game at Syracuse (10–12, 4–7) has moved from Quad 3 to Quad 2 after the Orange moved up seven spots to 133 in the wake of a 75–66 win at California on Saturday night.
Carolina is 1–9 in Quad 1 games, with only two of those left: Feb. 10 at Clemson and March 8 Duke rematch in Chapel Hill.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
UNC statistics
Non-conference schedule
| Date | Month/day | Opponent/event (final ranks) |
|---|---|---|
| October | Exhibitions | |
| 9 | 7 p.m. Friday | vs. USC in Greensboro |
| 18 | Sunday | vs. Indiana in Indianapolis |
| 27 | Tuesday | vs. Charlotte |
| November | Regular season | |
| 2 | Monday | vs. Western Carolina |
| 6 | Friday | vs. Wofford |
| 10 | Tuesday | vs. Wyoming |
| 13 | Friday | vs. Georgia |
| 20 | Friday | vs. Marshall |
| 23 | Monday | vs. Monmouth |
| 27 | Friday | Dick Vitale Invitational vs. West Virginia in Charlotte |
| December | ||
| 1 | Tuesday | ACC/SEC Challenge vs. No. 13 Arkansas |
| 6 | Sunday | vs. Butler |
| 12 | Saturday | at Georgetown |
| 15 | Tuesday | Tobacco Road Classic vs. N.C. State in Greensboro |
| 19 | 2:30 Saturday, CBS | CBS Sports Classic vs. Kentucky in New York |
| 21 | Monday | vs. The Citadel |
| January | ||
| 30 | Saturday | Nashville Hoops Showdown vs. No. 5 Illinois in Nashville, Tenn. |
ACC opponents
Home and away: Duke and Louisville
Home only: California, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, SMU, Stanford and Virginia
Away only: Boston College, Florida State, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest
Don’t play: Clemson
Photo by Smith Hardy
