By R.L. Bynum
With North Carolina’s chances of making the NCAA men’s tournament looking dire, a stretch of two games in three days beginning Saturday is crucial.
Only 14.4% of bracket projections listed on Bracket Matrix (13 of 90) have the Tar Heels (13–10, 6–5 ACC) in the field 40 days away from Selection Sunday, with 12 of them predicting the Tar Heels as a No. 11 seed, which would mean a trip to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four.
Saturday’s 4 p.m. rematch (ESPN2) in the Smith Center with Pittsburgh (14–8, 5–6; 45th in NET) and Monday’s 7 p.m. game (ESPN) at Clemson (18–5, 10–2; 33rd in the NET) will likely determine if UNC can turn its season around.
Carolina, 45th in the NET rankings after Wednesday’s games, is third on the “Next four out” list in Joe Lunardi’s Tuesday projection for ESPN, meaning that he ranks the Tar Heels as the seventh-best team left out of his field. Jerry Palm of CBS has UNC as the four team in his “Next four out” in his first only has a “First four out” list in his first “bubble watch update,” released Wednesday.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 5–5; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 2–0; 1 game left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–0; 1 game left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
ESPN’s “Bubble Watch” update gives UNC an 87% chance of making the field. Here’s what Neil Paine says in the story about the Tar Heels:
“UNC easily has the talent to make the tourney, and that factor may help them make it as one of the last power-conference teams in. But they are just 52nd in SOR [strength of record] with a 6–10 record against top-100 opponents, including 2–8 against the top 50. A recent loss at Duke in which they were down 19 on average won’t help their optics with the committee.”
What makes Saturday’s game against Pittsburgh huge, even though it’s only a Quad 2 game, is that the Panthers are one of the teams UNC is competing against for a spot. Lunardi and Palm have Pitt as the second-to-last team to make their projections.
The Panthers beat UNC 73–65 in Pittsburgh on Jan. 28, but that’s one of only two wins in the last eight games, the other a 77–63 win on Jan. 25 at Syracuse (10–12, 4–7; 135th in the NET).
The Clemson game and the home finale against No. 2 Duke (19–2, 11–0; 2nd in NET) are the only Quad 1 opportunities left on UNC’s regular-season schedule. The Tigers lost at home Tuesday night in triple overtime 89–86 to Georgia Tech and host the Blue Devils at 6 p.m. Saturday (ESPN).
The 72–71 home loss Jan. 18 to Stanford (15–8, 7–5), initially a Quad 3 loss that moved to a Quad 2 defeat, is back to a Quad 3 loss after Stanford fell to 77th in the NET in the wake of the Cardinal’s 79–73 home Wednesday loss to Wake Forest.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 26
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 109
Average NET win: 126
Average NET loss: 41
NET strength of schedule: 64
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 28
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Tuesday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 177 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 13 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 243 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 338 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 155 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 27 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 94 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 284 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 116 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 41 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 281 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 95 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 66 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 57 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 88 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 17 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 151 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 71 | 2 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 3 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 124 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 29 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 71 | 1 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 14 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 30 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 3 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 11–1 | 22–2 | 3 |
| No. 20 Clemson | 10–1 | 20–4 | 30 |
| No. 15 Virginia | 10–2 | 21–3 | 17 |
| N.C. State | 9–3 | 18–7 | 29 |
| Miami | 8–3 | 19–5 | 36 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 8–4 | 18–6 | 14 |
| No. 11 North Carolina | 7–4 | 19–5 | 26 |
| SMU | 6–5 | 17–7 | 34 |
| California | 5–6 | 17–7 | 57 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–6 | 16–8 | 55 |
| Stanford | 4–7 | 15–9 | 68 |
| Syracuse | 4–7 | 13–11 | 71 |
| Florida State | 4–7 | 11–13 | 95 |
| Wake Forest | 2–8 | 11–12 | 66 |
| Boston College | 2–8 | 9–14 | 148 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–9 | 11–13 | 151 |
| Notre Dame | 2–10 | 11–14 | 88 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–10 | 9–16 | 124 |
* — Through Tuesday games
Monday’s result
No. 24 Louisville 118, N.C. State 77
Tuesday’s results
Miami 75, No. 11 North Carolina 66
No. 15 Virginia 61, Florida State 58
SMU 89, Notre Dame 81
No. 4 Duke 70, Pittsburgh 54
Wednesday’s games
Virginia Tech at No. 20 Clemson, ACC Network
California at Syracuse, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stanford at Boston College, 9 p.m., ESPNU
Saturday’s games
No. 20 Clemson at No. 4 Duke, noon, ESPN
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame, noon, The CW
California at Boston College, noon, ACC Network
Pittsburgh at No. 11 North Carolina, 2 p.m., ESPN
Florida State at Virginia Tech, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Syracuse, 2 p.m., The CW
No. 24 Louisville vs. Baylor in Fort Worth, Texas, 4 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2
Stanford at Wake Forest, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Miami at N.C. State, 4 p.m., ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU
No. 15 Virginia vs. Ohio State in Nashville, 8 p.m., Fox
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 22 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 9 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 10 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at No. 25 Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 15 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | W, 71–68 | vs. No. 4 Duke | 19–4, 7–3 |
| 10 | Tuesday | L, 75–66 | at Miami | 19–5, 7–4 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 24 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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