By R.L. Bynum
With North Carolina’s chances of making the NCAA men’s tournament looking dire, a stretch of two games in three days beginning Saturday is crucial.
Only 14.4% of bracket projections listed on Bracket Matrix (13 of 90) have the Tar Heels (13–10, 6–5 ACC) in the field 40 days away from Selection Sunday, with 12 of them predicting the Tar Heels as a No. 11 seed, which would mean a trip to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four.
Saturday’s 4 p.m. rematch (ESPN2) in the Smith Center with Pittsburgh (14–8, 5–6; 45th in NET) and Monday’s 7 p.m. game (ESPN) at Clemson (18–5, 10–2; 33rd in the NET) will likely determine if UNC can turn its season around.
Carolina, 45th in the NET rankings after Wednesday’s games, is third on the “Next four out” list in Joe Lunardi’s Tuesday projection for ESPN, meaning that he ranks the Tar Heels as the seventh-best team left out of his field. Jerry Palm of CBS has UNC as the four team in his “Next four out” in his first only has a “First four out” list in his first “bubble watch update,” released Wednesday.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 2–1; 9 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 6 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 2–0; 4 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0; 1 games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
ESPN’s “Bubble Watch” update gives UNC an 87% chance of making the field. Here’s what Neil Paine says in the story about the Tar Heels:
“UNC easily has the talent to make the tourney, and that factor may help them make it as one of the last power-conference teams in. But they are just 52nd in SOR [strength of record] with a 6–10 record against top-100 opponents, including 2–8 against the top 50. A recent loss at Duke in which they were down 19 on average won’t help their optics with the committee.”
What makes Saturday’s game against Pittsburgh huge, even though it’s only a Quad 2 game, is that the Panthers are one of the teams UNC is competing against for a spot. Lunardi and Palm have Pitt as the second-to-last team to make their projections.
The Panthers beat UNC 73–65 in Pittsburgh on Jan. 28, but that’s one of only two wins in the last eight games, the other a 77–63 win on Jan. 25 at Syracuse (10–12, 4–7; 135th in the NET).
The Clemson game and the home finale against No. 2 Duke (19–2, 11–0; 2nd in NET) are the only Quad 1 opportunities left on UNC’s regular-season schedule. The Tigers lost at home Tuesday night in triple overtime 89–86 to Georgia Tech and host the Blue Devils at 6 p.m. Saturday (ESPN).
The 72–71 home loss Jan. 18 to Stanford (15–8, 7–5), initially a Quad 3 loss that moved to a Quad 2 defeat, is back to a Quad 3 loss after Stanford fell to 77th in the NET in the wake of the Cardinal’s 79–73 home Wednesday loss to Wake Forest.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 15
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 26 (2 days)
Average opponent NET: 151
Average NET win: 165
Average NET loss: 10
NET strength of schedule: 92
KenPom: 22
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 34
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 24
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Wednesday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Arkansas | 240 | 4 | Win |
| Kansas | 13 | 1 | Win |
| Radford | 301 | 4 | Win |
| N.C. Central | 343 | 4 | Win |
| Navy | 208 | 4 | Win |
| (N) St. Bonaventure | 97 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Michigan State | 10 | 1 | Loss |
| At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| Georgetown | 111 | 3 | Win |
| USC Upstate | 198 | 4 | Win |
| ETSU | 109 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Ohio State | 47 | 1 | |
| East Carolina | 288 | 4 | |
| Florida State | 148 | 3 | |
| At SMU | 43 | 1 | |
| Wake Forest | 59 | 2 | |
| At Stanford | 98 | 2 | |
| At California | 63 | 1 | |
| Notre Dame | 65 | 2 | |
| At Virginia | 21 | 1 | |
| Georgia Tech | 189 | 3 | |
| Syracuse | 96 | 3 | |
| Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| At Miami | 33 | 1 | |
| Pittsburgh | 154 | 3 | |
| At N.C. State | 34 | 1 | |
| At Syracuse | 96 | 2 | |
| Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| Virginia Tech | 58 | 2 | |
| Clemson | 32 | 2 | |
| At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 3 Duke | 0–0 | 11–0 | 2 |
| California | 0–0 | 11–1 | 63 |
| No. 12 North Carolina | 0–0 | 10–1 | 15 |
| No. 23 Virginia | 0–0 | 9–1 | 21 |
| Miami | 0–0 | 10–2 | 33 |
| Virginia Tech | 0–0 | 10–2 | 55 |
| No. 11 Louisville | 0–0 | 9–2 | 17 |
| SMU | 0–0 | 9–2 | 43 |
| Stanford | 0–0 | 8–2 | 97 |
| Clemson | 0–0 | 9–3 | 31 |
| Notre Dame | 0–0 | 9–3 | 64 |
| Wake Forest | 0–0 | 9–3 | 59 |
| N.C. State | 0–0 | 8–4 | 34 |
| Georgia Tech | 0–0 | 7–4 | 188 |
| Syracuse | 0–0 | 7–4 | 95 |
| Florida State | 0–0 | 6–6 | 149 |
| Pittsburgh | 0–0 | 6–6 | 152 |
| Boston College | 0–0 | 5–6 | 185 |
* — Through Thursday games
Friday’s results
Florida State 96, Mississippi Valley State 49
California 97, Morgan State 50
Saturday’s games
Montana at No. 11 Louisville, noon, ACCN Extra
Lafayette at Georgia Tech, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Elon at Virginia Tech, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Ohio State vs. No. 12 North Carolina at CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta, 3 p.m., CBS
Northeastern at Syracuse, 4 p.m., ACCN Extra
Maryland at No. 23 Virginia, 6 p.m., ESPN
No. 3 Duke at No. 16 Texas Tech, 8 p.m., ESPN
Stanford at Colorado, 8 p.m., ESPNU
Sunday’s games
Penn State vs. Pittsburgh in Hershey, Pa., noon, Big Ten Network
Ole Miss vs. N.C. State in Greensboro, 1 p.m., ESPN
No. 13 Vanderbilt at Wake Forest, 1 p.m., The CW
Purdue Ft. Wayne at Notre Dame, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Central Arkansas at SMU, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Cincinnati vs. Clemson in Greenville, S.C., 3 p.m., ESPN
North Florida at Miami, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Columbia at California, 5 p.m., ACCN Extra
Monday’s games
American at Virginia, 6 p.m., ACCN Extra
Jacksonville at Florida State, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Stonehill at Syracuse, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Fairleigh Dickinson at Boston College, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
East Carolina at No. 12 North Carolina, 8 p.m., ACC Network
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 10 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 17 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 9 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | 3 p.m. | vs. Ohio State | CBS |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | 8 p.m. | vs. East Carolina | ACCN |
| 30 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Florida State | ESPN2 |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | 2:15 | at SMU | The CW |
| 10 | Saturday | 6 p.m. | vs. Wake Forest | ACCN |
| 14 | Wednesday | 9 p.m. | at Stanford | ACCN |
| 17 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | at California | ACCN |
| 21 | Wednesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Notre Dame | ESPN2 |
| 24 | Saturday | 2 or 2:30 | at No. 23 Virginia | ESPN or ESPNU |
| 31 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at Georgia Tech | ACCN |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 3 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 11 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 3 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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