By R.L. Bynum
With North Carolina’s chances of making the NCAA men’s tournament looking dire, a stretch of two games in three days beginning Saturday is crucial.
Only 14.4% of bracket projections listed on Bracket Matrix (13 of 90) have the Tar Heels (13–10, 6–5 ACC) in the field 40 days away from Selection Sunday, with 12 of them predicting the Tar Heels as a No. 11 seed, which would mean a trip to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four.
Saturday’s 4 p.m. rematch (ESPN2) in the Smith Center with Pittsburgh (14–8, 5–6; 45th in NET) and Monday’s 7 p.m. game (ESPN) at Clemson (18–5, 10–2; 33rd in the NET) will likely determine if UNC can turn its season around.
Carolina, 43rd in the NET rankings, is third on the “Next four out” list in Joe Lunardi’s Tuesday projection for ESPN, meaning that he ranks the Tar Heels as the seventh-best team left out of his field. Jerry Palm of CBS has UNC as the four team in his “Next four out” in his first only has a “First four out” list in his first “bubble watch update,” released Wednesday.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–9; 2 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 4–1; 3 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 4–0; 3 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 4–0; 1 game left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
ESPN’s “Bubble Watch” update gives UNC an 87% chance of making the field. Here’s what Neil Paine says in the story about the Tar Heels:
“UNC easily has the talent to make the tourney, and that factor may help them make it as one of the last power-conference teams in. But they are just 52nd in SOR [strength of record] with a 6–10 record against top-100 opponents, including 2–8 against the top 50. A recent loss at Duke in which they were down 19 on average won’t help their optics with the committee.”
What makes Saturday’s game against Pittsburgh huge, even though it’s only a Quad 2 game, is that the Panthers are one of the teams UNC is competing against for a spot. Lunardi and Palm have Pitt as the second-to-last team to make their projections.
The Panthers beat UNC 73–65 in Pittsburgh on Jan. 28, but that’s one of only two wins in the last eight games, the other a 77–63 win on Jan. 25 at Syracuse (10–12, 4–7; 135th in the NET).
The Clemson game and the home finale against No. 2 Duke (19–2, 11–0; 2nd in NET) are the only Quad 1 opportunities left on UNC’s regular-season schedule. The Tigers lost at home Tuesday night in triple overtime 89–86 to Georgia Tech and host the Blue Devils at 6 p.m. Saturday (ESPN).
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 43
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 47 on Jan. 1
Average opponent NET: 87
Average NET win: 134
Average NET loss: 26
NET strength of schedule: 12
KenPom: 39
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 31
KPI: 52
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 47
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Tuesday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | 152 | 3 | Win |
| At Kansas | 8 | 1 | Loss |
| American | 231 | 4 | Win |
| At Hawai’i | 173 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Dayton | 74 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Auburn | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Michigan State | 20 | 1 | Loss |
| Alabama | 6 | 1 | Loss |
| Georgia Tech | 119 | 3 | Win |
| La Salle | 188 | 4 | Win |
| (N) Florida | 5 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) UCLA | 26 | 1 | Win |
| Campbell | 183 | 4 | Win |
| At Louisville | 29 | 1 | Loss |
| At Notre Dame | 94 | 2 | Win |
| SMU | 40 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. State | 115 | 2 | Win |
| California | 132 | 3 | Win |
| Stanford | 72 | 2 | Loss |
| At Wake Forest | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston College | 215 | 4 | Win |
| At Pittsburgh | 45 | 1 | Loss |
| At Duke | 2 | 1 | Loss |
| Pittsburgh | 45 | 2 | |
| At Clemson | 33 | 1 | |
| At Syracuse | 135 | 2 | |
| N.C. State | 115 | 3 | |
| Virginia | 114 | 3 | |
| At Florida State | 86 | 2 | |
| Miami | 227 | 4 | |
| At Virginia Tech | 163 | 3 | |
| Duke | 2 | 1 |
ACC standings
| Team | League | Overall | NET |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 2 Duke | 11–0 | 19–2 | 2 |
| Clemson | 10–2 | 18–5 | 33 |
| Louisville | 9–2 | 16–6 | 29 |
| SMU | 8–3 | 17–5 | 40 |
| Wake Forest | 8–3 | 16–6 | 68 |
| Stanford | 7–4 | 15–7 | 72 |
| North Carolina | 6–5 | 13–10 | 43 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–6 | 14–8 | 45 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–6 | 10–12 | 163 |
| Florida State | 5–7 | 14–9 | 86 |
| Georgia Tech | 5–7 | 11–12 | 119 |
| California | 4–7 | 11–11 | 130 |
| California | 4–7 | 11–11 | 132 |
| Notre Dame | 4–7 | 10–12 | 94 |
| Syracuse | 4–7 | 10–12 | 135 |
| Virginia | 4–8 | 11–12 | 114 |
| N.C. State | 2–8 | 9–12 | 115 |
| Boston College | 2–8 | 10–11 | 215 |
| Miami | 1–10 | 5–17 | 227 |
Monday’s result
Virginia 73, Pittsburgh 57
Tuesday’s results
Florida State 67, Notre Dame 60
Georgia Tech 89, Clemson 86, 3 OTs
Wednesday’s games
No. 2 Duke at Syracuse, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Louisville at Boston College, 7 p.m., ACCN
SMU at Virginia Tech, 9 p.m., ACCN
Wake Forest at Stanford, 11 p.m., ESPNU
N.C. State at California, 11 p.m., ACCN
Saturday’s games
Virginia Tech at Notre Dame, 1 p.m., The CW
Miami at Louisville, 2 p.m., ESPN2
Boston College at Syracuse, 3:15, The CW
Pittsburgh at North Carolina, 4 p.m., ESPN2
Wake Forest at California, 5 p.m., ACCN
Georgia Tech at Virginia, 5:20, The CW
No. 2 Duke at Clemson, 6 p.m., ESPN
N.C. State at Stanford, 7 p.m., ACCN
| Date | Month/day | Time/ score | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 15 | Tuesday | W, 84–76 | at No. 19 Memphis | Exhibition |
| 27 | Sunday | W, 127–63 | vs. Johnson C. Smith | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 4 | Monday | W, 90–76 | vs. Elon | 1–0 |
| 8 | Friday | L, 92–89 | at No. 11 Kansas | 1–1 |
| 15 | Friday | W, 107–55 | vs. American | 2–1 |
| 22 | Friday | W, 85–69 | at Hawai’i | 3–1 |
| Maui Invitational | ||||
| 25 | Monday | W, 92–90 | Dayton | 4–1 |
| 26 | Tuesday | L, 85–72 | No. 1 Auburn | 4–2 |
| 27 | Wednesday | L, 94–91, OT | No. 7 Michigan State | 4–3 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 4 | Wednesday | L, 94–79 | vs. No. 4 Alabama | 4–4 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Saturday | W, 68–65 | vs. Georgia Tech | 5–4, 1–0 ACC |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 93–67 | vs. LaSalle | 6–4 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 90–84 | No. 5 Florida | 6–5 |
| CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden | ||||
| 21 | Saturday | W, 76–74 | UCLA | 7–5 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Sunday | W, 97–81 | vs. Campbell | 8–5 |
| January | ||||
| 1 | Wednesday | L, 83–70 | at No. 21 Louisville | 8–6, 1–1 |
| 4 | Saturday | W, 74–73 | at Notre Dame | 9–6, 2–1 |
| 7 | Tuesday | W, 82–67 | vs. SMU | 10–6, 3–1 |
| 11 | Saturday | W, 63–61 | at N.C. State | 11–6, 4–1 |
| 15 | Wednesday | W, 79–53 | vs. California | 12–6, 5–1 |
| 18 | Saturday | L, 72–71 | vs. Stanford | 12–7, 5–2 |
| 21 | Tuesday | L, 67–66 | at Wake Forest | 12–8, 5–3 |
| 25 | Saturday | W, 102–96, OT | vs. Boston College | 13–8, 6–3 |
| 28 | Tuesday | L, 73–65 | at Pittsburgh | 13–9, 6–4 |
| February | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | L, 87–70 | at No. 2 Duke | 13–10, 6–5 |
| 8 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 10 | Monday | 7 p.m. | at Clemson | ESPN |
| 15 | Saturday | 6 p.m. | at Syracuse | ESPN |
| 19 | Wednesday | 7 p.m. | vs. N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 22 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | vs. Virginia | ESPN |
| 24 | Monday | 7 p.m. | at Florida State | ESPN |
| March | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | Noon | vs. Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 4 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Virginia Tech | ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU |
| 8 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 2 Duke | ESPN |
| 11– 15 | Tues.–Sat. | ACC tournament Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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