By R.L. Bynum
CHAPEL HILL — While the bubble battle for the ACC’s possible fourth NCAA tournament berth took a lousy turn Saturday for Wake Forest and Pittsburgh, it couldn’t have gone better for North Carolina three weeks from Selection Sunday.
With an 81–66 Saturday home Quad 3 victory over Virginia, the Tar Heels (17–11, 10–6 ACC) also gave themselves an outside shot at a double-bye in the ACC tournament while continuing on a possible path to a spot in the NCAA tournament.
UNC is one game back of Wake Forest (19–8, 11–5) and SMU (20–7, 11–5) for fourth place and the last double-bye spot, holding the tiebreaker with the Mustangs but losing it against the Deacs.
Despite the large victory margin, UNC’s NET ranking stayed at 45 after Saturday’s results that downgraded a Quad 3 win to Quad 4. Carolina’s last four games include one game in each quadrant, starting with Monday’s 7 p.m. Quad 2 game (ESPN) at Florida State (16–11, 7–9; 88th in NET rankings). The Seminoles lost 89–81 Saturday at Louisville and have dropped two of their last three games.
“It feels great,” UNC center Ven-Allen Lubin said. “We’re just getting started. Knowing the potential we have as a team and the belief that we have, we can continue to stack wins like this. We have the confidence moving forward and have to prepare for Monday night.”
Graduate guard RJ Davis feels the urgency of every remaining game.
“In the crunch of time where we’re at right now, the position that we put ourselves in, we’re still in control of our destiny,” he said. “We’re still in control of how we play and how we’re gonna be able to manage to pull wins out.”
While UNC has put itself in a good position, the Demon Deacons’ shot at an NCAA berth took a significant hit with an 86–73 loss at N.C. State, and the Panthers’ chances dropped with a 76–72 loss at Notre Dame. Wake Forest fell two spots in the NET to 62nd, and Pittsburgh (16–11, 7–9) dropped four places to 55th.
No. 3 Duke (24–3, 15–1; 2nd in NET rankings), No. 18 Clemson (22–5, 14–2; 22nd) and No. 25 Louisville (21–6, 14–2; 25th) appear to be locks to make the NCAA tournament, with Carolina in the mix for a possible fourth league berth.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 4–3; 6 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 2–1; 2 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 6–0; 1 game left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
In Friday’s bracket projections before Saturday’s action, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had UNC as the fourth team on the “First four out” list and CBS’ Jerry Palm has the Heels as the third team on his “First four out.”
In the Sunday Bracket Matrix update, only five of the 87 listed projections include UNC.
To make the field, UNC still likely must win its next three games before the March 8 regular-season finale at the Smith Center against No. 3 Duke.
After the FSU game, UNC hosts last-place Miami (6–21, 2–14; 217th) at noon Saturday in its final Quad 4 game of the regular season before visiting Virginia Tech (11–15, 6–9; 158th) at 7 p.m. Tuesday, March 4, in its last Quad 3 game.
Elon (17–12) fell nine spots to 164th in the NET rankings after Saturday’s 79–70 home loss to William & Mary (15–11, 191st in the NET), dropping UNC’s 90–76 opening-game win from Quad 3 to Quad 4.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 25
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 122
Average NET win: 141
Average NET loss: 44
NET strength of schedule: 50
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 29
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 199 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 14 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 243 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 340 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 170 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 146 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 95 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 286 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 129 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 40 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 289 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 102 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 70 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 78 | 2 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 51 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 85 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 18 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 143 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 73 | 2 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 39 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 114 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 26 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 73 | 1 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 56 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 31 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 10–0 | 21–1 | 3 |
| No. 20 Clemson | 9–1 | 19–4 | 31 |
| No. 18 Virginia | 8–2 | 19–3 | 17 |
| N.C. State | 8–2 | 17–6 | 25 |
| No. 14 North Carolina | 6–3 | 18–4 | 26 |
| Miami | 6–3 | 17–5 | 39 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 6–4 | 16–6 | 18 |
| California | 5–5 | 17–6 | 50 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–5 | 16–7 | 56 |
| SMU | 4–5 | 15–7 | 34 |
| Syracuse | 4–6 | 13–10 | 72 |
| Florida State | 3–6 | 10–12 | 100 |
| Stanford | 3–7 | 14–9 | 77 |
| Wake Forest | 2–7 | 11–11 | 72 |
| Boston College | 2–7 | 9–13 | 148 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–7 | 9–13 | 113 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–8 | 11–12 | 143 |
| Notre Dame | 2–8 | 11–12 | 85 |
* — Through Tuesday games
Monday’s result
No. 14 North Carolina 87, Syracuse 77
Tuesday’s results
No. 4 Duke 67, Boston College 49
No. 18 Virginia 67, Pittsburgh 47
N.C. State 84, SMU 83
Wednesday’s results
No. 24 Louisville 76, Notre Dame 65
California 90, Georgia Tech 85
No. 20 Clemson 66, Stanford 64
Saturday’s games
Virginia Tech at N.C. State, noon, The CW
Syracuse at No. 18 Virginia, noon, ESPN
No. 24 Louisville at Wake Forest, noon, ACC Network
Miami at Boston College, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Pittsburgh, 2 p.m., The CW
Florida State at Notre Dame, 4 p.m., The CW
No. 4 Duke at No. 14 North Carolina, 6:30, ESPN
No. 20 Clemson at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Stanford, 8 p.m., ESPNU
Monday’s game
N.C. State at No. 24 Louisville, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
No. 14 North Carolina at Miami, 7 p.m., ESPN
No. 18 Virginia at Florida State, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Notre Dame at SMU, 7 p.m., ACC Network
No. 4 Duke at Pittsburgh, 9 p.m., ESPN
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 16 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 11 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 10 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 18 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 24 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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