By R.L. Bynum
CHAPEL HILL — While the bubble battle for the ACC’s possible fourth NCAA tournament berth took a lousy turn Saturday for Wake Forest and Pittsburgh, it couldn’t have gone better for North Carolina three weeks from Selection Sunday.
With an 81–66 Saturday home Quad 3 victory over Virginia, the Tar Heels (17–11, 10–6 ACC) also gave themselves an outside shot at a double-bye in the ACC tournament while continuing on a possible path to a spot in the NCAA tournament.
UNC is one game back of Wake Forest (19–8, 11–5) and SMU (20–7, 11–5) for fourth place and the last double-bye spot, holding the tiebreaker with the Mustangs but losing it against the Deacs.
Despite the large victory margin, UNC’s NET ranking stayed at 45 after Saturday’s results that downgraded a Quad 3 win to Quad 4. Carolina’s last four games include one game in each quadrant, starting with Monday’s 7 p.m. Quad 2 game (ESPN) at Florida State (16–11, 7–9; 88th in NET rankings). The Seminoles lost 89–81 Saturday at Louisville and have dropped two of their last three games.
“It feels great,” UNC center Ven-Allen Lubin said. “We’re just getting started. Knowing the potential we have as a team and the belief that we have, we can continue to stack wins like this. We have the confidence moving forward and have to prepare for Monday night.”
Graduate guard RJ Davis feels the urgency of every remaining game.
“In the crunch of time where we’re at right now, the position that we put ourselves in, we’re still in control of our destiny,” he said. “We’re still in control of how we play and how we’re gonna be able to manage to pull wins out.”
While UNC has put itself in a good position, the Demon Deacons’ shot at an NCAA berth took a significant hit with an 86–73 loss at N.C. State, and the Panthers’ chances dropped with a 76–72 loss at Notre Dame. Wake Forest fell two spots in the NET to 62nd, and Pittsburgh (16–11, 7–9) dropped four places to 55th.
No. 3 Duke (24–3, 15–1; 2nd in NET rankings), No. 18 Clemson (22–5, 14–2; 22nd) and No. 25 Louisville (21–6, 14–2; 25th) appear to be locks to make the NCAA tournament, with Carolina in the mix for a possible fourth league berth.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 2–1; 9 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 6 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 2–0; 4 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0; 1 games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
In Friday’s bracket projections before Saturday’s action, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had UNC as the fourth team on the “First four out” list and CBS’ Jerry Palm has the Heels as the third team on his “First four out.”
In the Sunday Bracket Matrix update, only five of the 87 listed projections include UNC.
To make the field, UNC still likely must win its next three games before the March 8 regular-season finale at the Smith Center against No. 3 Duke.
After the FSU game, UNC hosts last-place Miami (6–21, 2–14; 217th) at noon Saturday in its final Quad 4 game of the regular season before visiting Virginia Tech (11–15, 6–9; 158th) at 7 p.m. Tuesday, March 4, in its last Quad 3 game.
Elon (17–12) fell nine spots to 164th in the NET rankings after Saturday’s 79–70 home loss to William & Mary (15–11, 191st in the NET), dropping UNC’s 90–76 opening-game win from Quad 3 to Quad 4.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 15
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 26 (2 days)
Average opponent NET: 151
Average NET win: 165
Average NET loss: 10
NET strength of schedule: 92
KenPom: 22
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 34
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 24
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Wednesday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Arkansas | 240 | 4 | Win |
| Kansas | 13 | 1 | Win |
| Radford | 301 | 4 | Win |
| N.C. Central | 343 | 4 | Win |
| Navy | 208 | 4 | Win |
| (N) St. Bonaventure | 97 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Michigan State | 10 | 1 | Loss |
| At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| Georgetown | 111 | 3 | Win |
| USC Upstate | 198 | 4 | Win |
| ETSU | 109 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Ohio State | 47 | 1 | |
| East Carolina | 288 | 4 | |
| Florida State | 148 | 3 | |
| At SMU | 43 | 1 | |
| Wake Forest | 59 | 2 | |
| At Stanford | 98 | 2 | |
| At California | 63 | 1 | |
| Notre Dame | 65 | 2 | |
| At Virginia | 21 | 1 | |
| Georgia Tech | 189 | 3 | |
| Syracuse | 96 | 3 | |
| Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| At Miami | 33 | 1 | |
| Pittsburgh | 154 | 3 | |
| At N.C. State | 34 | 1 | |
| At Syracuse | 96 | 2 | |
| Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| Virginia Tech | 58 | 2 | |
| Clemson | 32 | 2 | |
| At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 3 Duke | 0–0 | 11–0 | 2 |
| California | 0–0 | 10–1 | 63 |
| No. 12 North Carolina | 0–0 | 10–1 | 15 |
| No. 23 Virginia | 0–0 | 9–1 | 21 |
| Miami | 0–0 | 10–2 | 33 |
| Virginia Tech | 0–0 | 10–2 | 58 |
| No. 11 Louisville | 0–0 | 9–2 | 17 |
| SMU | 0–0 | 9–2 | 43 |
| Stanford | 0–0 | 8–2 | 98 |
| Clemson | 0–0 | 9–3 | 32 |
| Notre Dame | 0–0 | 9–3 | 65 |
| Wake Forest | 0–0 | 9–3 | 59 |
| N.C. State | 0–0 | 8–4 | 34 |
| Georgia Tech | 0–0 | 7–4 | 189 |
| Syracuse | 0–0 | 7–4 | 96 |
| Pittsburgh | 0–0 | 6–6 | 154 |
| Boston College | 0–0 | 5–6 | 177 |
| Florida State | 0–0 | 5–6 | 148 |
* — Through Wednesday games
Tuesday’s results
No. 12 North Carolina 77, East Tennessee State 58
No. 3 Duke 97, Lipscomb 73
No. 20 Tennessee 83, No. 11 Louisville 62
Dayton 97, Florida State 69
Clemson 68, South Carolina 61
Miami 98, Florida International 81
Georgia Tech 87, Marist 76
Wednesday’s results
N.C. State 108, Texas Southern 72
Pittsburgh 103, Binghamton 6
Syracuse 76, Mercyhurst 62
Wake Forest 71, Longwood 68
UT Arlington at Stanford, 10 p.m., ACCN Extra
Friday’s games
Mississippi Valley State at Florida State, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Morgan State at California, 10 p.m., ACCN Extra
Saturday’s games
Montana at No. 11 Louisville, noon, ACCN Extra
Lafayette at Georgia Tech, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Elon at Virginia Tech, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Ohio State vs. No. 12 North Carolina at CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta, 3 p.m., CBS
Northeastern at Syracuse, 4 p.m., ACCN Extra
Maryland at No. 23 Virginia, 6 p.m., ESPN
No. 3 Duke at No. 16 Texas Tech, 8 p.m., ESPN
Stanford at Colorado, 8 p.m., ESPNU
Sunday’s games
Penn State vs. Pittsburgh in Hershey, Pa., noon, Big Ten Network
Ole Miss vs. N.C. State in Greensboro, 1 p.m., ESPN
No. 13 Vanderbilt at Wake Forest, 1 p.m., The CW
Purdue Ft. Wayne at Notre Dame, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Central Arkansas at SMU, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Cincinnati vs. Clemson in Greenville, S.C., 3 p.m., ESPN
North Florida at Miami, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Columbia at California, 5 p.m., ACCN Extra
Monday’s games
American at Virginia, 6 p.m., ACCN Extra
Jacksonville at Florida State, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Stonehill at Syracuse, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Fairleigh Dickinson at Boston College, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
East Carolina at No. 12 North Carolina, 8 p.m., ACC Network
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 10 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 17 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 9 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. East Tennessee State | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | 3 p.m. | vs. Ohio State | CBS |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | 8 p.m. | vs. East Carolina | ACCN |
| 30 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Florida State | ESPN2 |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | 2:15 | at SMU | The CW |
| 10 | Saturday | 6 p.m. | vs. Wake Forest | ACCN |
| 14 | Wednesday | 9 p.m. | at Stanford | ACCN |
| 17 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | at California | ACCN |
| 21 | Wednesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Notre Dame | ESPN2 |
| 24 | Saturday | 2 or 2:30 | at No. 23 Virginia | ESPN or ESPNU |
| 31 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at Georgia Tech | ACCN |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 3 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 11 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 3 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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