By R.L. Bynum
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — North Carolina’s NCAA tournament chances, which were remote two weeks earlier, continue to improve after Monday’s 96–85 Quad 2 victory at Florida State for the Tar Heels’ fourth consecutive victory.
UNC (18–11, 11–6 ACC) moved up one spot in the NET rankings to 44th ahead of Saturday’s noon Quad 4 home game against Miami (6–21, 2–14; 218th in the NET), but fell back to 45th after Wednesday’s games.
The modest NET ranking improvement after the win over the Seminoles (16–12, 7–10; 90th) shows that Carolina can’t afford another loss before the senior night game against No. 2 Duke (24–3, 15–1; 2nd).
Days ago, Carolina only appeared on three projections on Bracket Matrix, but the Tar Heels were on 16 of 116 brackets on the site’s Tuesday update.
The Bracketolgist website projects UNC to make the field. In Tuesday projections, Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News has the Tar Heels as the last team out, as does ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who had them as the fourth team on his “First four out” list on Friday, and USA Today.
Jerry Palm’s CBS projection on Monday had UNC as the second team on his “First four out” list.
UNC is the third team on the “First four out” list of Joe Rexrode’s projection in The Athletic and Patrick Stevens in The Washington Post.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
The Tar Heels still need to win over the Hurricanes, preferably convincingly, and will likely need a victory at Virginia Tech (12–15, 7–9; 158th) in a Quad 3 game the following Tuesday to make the field.
“The thing right now that I’m most proud of is this group has stayed the course, and they’ve stayed connected when very easily they could not have, and that’s a testament to them,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said. “To be able to stay the course and stay connected when things weren’t going so well, to get us to now where we’re playing better.”
It looked like Carolina’s chances of making the field were over after the loss at Clemson, but graduate guard RJ Davis said the team’s response since then has changed that.
“Throughout the year, we’ve been knocked down a lot of times, and we get back up again, knocked down again,” RJ Davis said. “But I think our response has been better, and our energy has been better. I just think we’re connected really well. We’re showing the right way, and everyone’s trying the right way.”
UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* | WAB* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Duke | 17–1 | 29–2 | 1 | 2 |
| No. 10 Virginia | 15–3 | 27–4 | 13 | 11 |
| Miami | 13–5 | 24–7 | 32 | 28 |
| No. 19 North Carolina | 12–6 | 24–7 | 23 | 19 |
| Clemson | 12–6 | 22–9 | 36 | 33 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 11–7 | 22–9 | 14 | 25 |
| N.C. State | 10–8 | 19–12 | 35 | 45 |
| Florida State | 10–8 | 17–14 | 69 | 74 |
| California | 9–9 | 21–10 | 65 | 49 |
| Stanford | 9–9 | 20–11 | 59 | 51 |
| SMU | 8–10 | 19–12 | 39 | 50 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–10 | 19–12 | 53 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 7–11 | 16–15 | 64 | 81 |
| Syracuse | 6–12 | 15–16 | 83 | 92 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–13 | 12–19 | 109 | 146 |
| Notre Dame | 4–14 | 13–18 | 93 | 121 |
| Boston College | 4–14 | 11–20 | 159 | 217 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–16 | 11–20 | 167 | 210 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
No. 1 Duke 76, No. 19 North Carolina 61
Boston College 77, Notre Dame 69
Clemson 79, Georgia Tech 76
No. 24 Louisville 92, Miami 89
Florida State 92, SMU 78
Stanford 85, N.C. State 84
Wake Forest 80, California 73
Pittsburgh 71, Syracuse 69, OT
END OF REGULAR SEASON
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday through Saturday
UNC schedule
| Date | Month/day | Opponent/event (final ranks) |
|---|---|---|
| October | Exhibitions | |
| 9 | 7 p.m. Friday | vs. USC in Greensboro |
| 18 | 5 p.m. Sunday | vs. Indiana in Indianapolis |
| 27 | Tuesday | vs. Charlotte |
| November | Regular season | |
| 2 | Monday | vs. Western Carolina |
| 6 | Friday | vs. Wofford |
| 10 | Tuesday | vs. Wyoming |
| 13 | Friday | vs. Georgia |
| 20 | Friday | vs. Marshall |
| 23 | Monday | vs. Monmouth |
| 27 | Friday | Dick Vitale Invitational vs. West Virginia in Charlotte |
| December | ||
| 1 | Tuesday | ACC/SEC Challenge vs. No. 13 Arkansas |
| 6 | Sunday | vs. Butler |
| 12 | Saturday | at Georgetown |
| 15 | Tuesday | Tobacco Road Classic vs. N.C. State in Greensboro |
| 19 | 2:30 Saturday, CBS | CBS Sports Classic vs. Kentucky in New York |
| 21 | Monday | vs. The Citadel |
| 30 | Wednesday | vs. California |
| January | ||
| 2 | Saturday | at Boston College |
| 5 | Tuesday | at Louisville |
| 9 | Saturday | vs. N.C. State |
| 13 | Wednesday | at Florida State |
| 16 | Saturday | vs. Stanford |
| 19 | Tuesday | vs. No. 17 Virginia |
| 23 | Saturday | at Syracuse |
| 26 | Tuesday | vs. SMU |
| 30 | Saturday | Nashville Hoops Showdown vs. No. 5 Illinois in Nashville, Tenn. |
| February | ||
| 2 | Tuesday | at Notre Dame |
| 6 | Saturday | vs. Georgia Tech |
| 8 | Monday | vs. Louisville |
| 13 | Saturday | at No. 4 Duke |
| 20 | Saturday | at Wake Forest |
| 22 | Monday | vs. No. 24 Miami |
| 27 | Saturday | at Virginia Tech |
| March | ||
| 2 | Tuesday | at Pittsburgh |
| 6 | Saturday | vs. No. 4 Duke |
| 9–13 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament in Greensboro |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
