By R.L. Bynum
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — North Carolina’s NCAA tournament chances, which were remote two weeks earlier, continue to improve after Monday’s 96–85 Quad 2 victory at Florida State for the Tar Heels’ fourth consecutive victory.
UNC (18–11, 11–6 ACC) moved up one spot in the NET rankings to 44th ahead of Saturday’s noon Quad 4 home game against Miami (6–21, 2–14; 218th in the NET), but fell back to 45th after Wednesday’s games.
The modest NET ranking improvement after the win over the Seminoles (16–12, 7–10; 90th) shows that Carolina can’t afford another loss before the senior night game against No. 2 Duke (24–3, 15–1; 2nd).
Days ago, Carolina only appeared on three projections on Bracket Matrix, but the Tar Heels were on 16 of 116 brackets on the site’s Tuesday update.
The Bracketolgist website projects UNC to make the field. In Tuesday projections, Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News has the Tar Heels as the last team out, as does ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who had them as the fourth team on his “First four out” list on Friday, and USA Today.
Jerry Palm’s CBS projection on Monday had UNC as the second team on his “First four out” list.
UNC is the third team on the “First four out” list of Joe Rexrode’s projection in The Athletic and Patrick Stevens in The Washington Post.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 4–4; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 3 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 6–0; 2 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
The Tar Heels still need to win over the Hurricanes, preferably convincingly, and will likely need a victory at Virginia Tech (12–15, 7–9; 158th) in a Quad 3 game the following Tuesday to make the field.
“The thing right now that I’m most proud of is this group has stayed the course, and they’ve stayed connected when very easily they could not have, and that’s a testament to them,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said. “To be able to stay the course and stay connected when things weren’t going so well, to get us to now where we’re playing better.”
It looked like Carolina’s chances of making the field were over after the loss at Clemson, but graduate guard RJ Davis said the team’s response since then has changed that.
“Throughout the year, we’ve been knocked down a lot of times, and we get back up again, knocked down again,” RJ Davis said. “But I think our response has been better, and our energy has been better. I just think we’re connected really well. We’re showing the right way, and everyone’s trying the right way.”
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 23
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 124
Average NET win: 145
Average NET loss: 42
NET strength of schedule: 65
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 30
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 204 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 15 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 262 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 179 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 158 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 10 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 112 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 292 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 123 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 36 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 287 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 113 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 33 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 66 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 72 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 54 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 83 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 14 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 145 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 79 | 3 | |
| F7 | Duke | 3 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 37 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 126 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 27 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 79 | 2 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 51 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 31 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 3 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 9–0 | 20–1 | 2 |
| No. 22 Clemson | 8–1 | 18–4 | 29 |
| No. 17 Virginia | 7–2 | 18–3 | 16 |
| N.C. State | 7–2 | 16–6 | 27 |
| Miami | 6–3 | 17–5 | 36 |
| No. 16 North Carolina | 5–3 | 17–4 | 26 |
| No. 20 Louisville | 5–4 | 15–6 | 19 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–5 | 16–7 | 54 |
| SMU | 4–4 | 15–6 | 31 |
| California | 4–5 | 16–6 | 56 |
| Syracuse | 4–5 | 13–9 | 80 |
| Stanford | 3–6 | 14–8 | 77 |
| Florida State | 3–6 | 10–12 | 107 |
| Boston College | 2–6 | 9–12 | 157 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–7 | 11–11 | 140 |
| Notre Dame | 2–7 | 11–11 | 82 |
| Wake Forest | 2–7 | 11–11 | 6 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–7 | 9–13 | 118 |
* — Through Friday games
Saturday’s games
No. 16 North Carolina 91, Georgia Tech 75
No. 4 Duke 72, Virginia Tech 58
N.C. State 96, Wake Forest 78
No. 22 Clemson 63, Pittsburgh 52
No. 17 Virginia 73, Boston College 66
No. 23 Louisville 88, SMU 74
California 86, Miami 81
Florida State 88, Stanford 80
Syracuse 86, Notre Dame 72
Monday’s game
Syracuse at No. 16 North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
Boston College at No. 4 Duke, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Pittsburgh at No. 17 Virginia, 9 p.m., ACC Network
N.C. State at SMU, 9 p.m, ESPN2
Wednesday’s games
Notre Dame at No. 20 Louisville, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Georgia Tech at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
No. 22 Clemson at Stanford, 10 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday’s games
Syracuse at No. 17 Virginia, noon
No. 20 Louisville at Wake Forest, noon, ACC Network
Virginia Tech at N.C. State, 1:30, The CW
Miami at Boston College, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Pittsburgh, 3:45, The CW
Florida State at Notre Dame, 4 p.m., ACC Network
No. 4 Duke at No. 16 North Carolina, 6:30, ESPN
No. 22 Clemson at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Stanford, 8 p.m., ESPNU
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 13 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 14 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 7 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 17 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 22 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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