By R.L. Bynum
CHAPEL HILL — North Carolina continues to beat the teams it has to beat to make the NCAA tournament field, easily knocking off Miami 92–73 for its season-high fifth consecutive victory.
The victory margin boosted the Tar Heels’ NET ranking three spots to 42nd, even though it was only a Quad 4 victory. However, they had a Quad 2 win downgraded to Quad 3.
Two weeks away from Selection Sunday, there’s still no margin for error, as UNC (19–11, 12–6 ACC) must win its final Quad 3 game of the regular season at Virginia Tech (13–16, 8–10; 154th in the NET rankings) at 7 p.m. Tuesday (ESPNU).
“We’ve kind of had that chip on our shoulder — that extra edge — because we don’t have too much room for error,” Seth Trimble said. “If we would have lost this game, we would have absolutely been done — or if we lost the game before at Florida State. We know it’s kind of a do-or-die. We know the situation that we’re in, but everybody’s embracing it and kind of taking it on the chin and accepting it.”
The Tar Heels’ advancement of three spots contrasted with what happened after Monday’s 96–85 Quad 2 win at Florida State. UNC only moved up one spot to 44th, only to fall back to 45th later in the week.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 4–3; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–1; 3 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 6–0; 2 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
In Saturday’s Bracket Matrix update, UNC appears on 11 of 99 bracket projections, with the Tar Heels as a No. 9 seed in the best projection.
James Fletcher III’s Thursday projection for On3 has UNC as a No. 11 seed and playing West Virginia in a First Four game in Dayton.
Carolina is the second team on the “First four out” lists of ESPN’s Joe Lunardi (updated Friday), CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm (updated Saturday) and USA Today (updated Friday).
It was helpful for UNC Saturday that other teams on the bubble lost, including Arkansas (17–12; 47th in the NET rankings; lost 72–53 at South Carolina), George Mason (21–7; 75th; 85–68 at Duquesne), Nebraska (17–12; 57th; 67–66 vs. Minnesota), Oklahoma (17–12; 52nd; 87–84 at Ole Miss), Cincinnati (17–12; 40th; 73–64 at No. 4 Houston), SMU (21–8, 12–6; 41st; 73–68 at Stanford) and San Francisco (22–8; 62nd; 95–75 vs. Gonzaga).
N.C. State (11–18, 4–14) fell 12 spots to 137th after the Wolfpack’s 87–62 loss Saturday at Georgia Tech, dropping Carolina’s 63–61 victory in Raleigh on Jan. 11 from Quad 2 to Quad 3. The Wolfpack likely won’t make the ACC tournament field.
According to Matt Hackman, UNC has a 21% chance of earning a No. 4 seed and a double-bye in the ACC tournament, based on 100,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season. He says that UNC has a 33% chance to be a No. 5 seed, a 35% chance at a No. 6 seed and an 11% chance to be a No. 7 seed.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 25
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 122
Average NET win: 141
Average NET loss: 44
NET strength of schedule: 50
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 29
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 199 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 14 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 243 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 340 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 170 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 146 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 95 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 286 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 129 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 40 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 289 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 102 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 70 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 78 | 2 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 51 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 85 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 18 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 143 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 73 | 2 | |
| F7 | Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 39 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 114 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 26 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 73 | 2 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 56 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 31 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 9–0 | 20–1 | 2 |
| No. 22 Clemson | 8–1 | 18–4 | 31 |
| No. 17 Virginia | 7–2 | 18–3 | 18 |
| N.C. State | 7–2 | 16–6 | 26 |
| Miami | 6–3 | 17–5 | 39 |
| No. 16 North Carolina | 5–3 | 17–4 | 25 |
| No. 20 Louisville | 5–4 | 15–6 | 17 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–5 | 16–7 | 56 |
| SMU | 4–4 | 15–6 | 34 |
| California | 4–5 | 16–6 | 51 |
| Syracuse | 4–5 | 13–9 | 78 |
| Stanford | 3–6 | 14–8 | 77 |
| Florida State | 3–6 | 10–12 | 102 |
| Boston College | 2–6 | 9–12 | 152 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–7 | 11–11 | 143 |
| Notre Dame | 2–7 | 11–11 | 85 |
| Wake Forest | 2–7 | 11–11 | 70 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–7 | 9–13 | 114 |
* — Through Saturday games
Saturday’s games
No. 16 North Carolina 91, Georgia Tech 75
No. 4 Duke 72, Virginia Tech 58
N.C. State 96, Wake Forest 78
No. 22 Clemson 63, Pittsburgh 52
No. 17 Virginia 73, Boston College 66
No. 23 Louisville 88, SMU 74
California 86, Miami 81
Florida State 88, Stanford 80
Syracuse 86, Notre Dame 72
Monday’s game
Syracuse at No. 16 North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
Boston College at No. 4 Duke, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Pittsburgh at No. 17 Virginia, 9 p.m., ACC Network
N.C. State at SMU, 9 p.m, ESPN2
Wednesday’s games
Notre Dame at No. 20 Louisville, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Georgia Tech at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
No. 22 Clemson at Stanford, 10 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday’s games
Syracuse at No. 17 Virginia, noon
No. 20 Louisville at Wake Forest, noon, ACC Network
Virginia Tech at N.C. State, 1:30, The CW
Miami at Boston College, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Pittsburgh, 3:45, The CW
Florida State at Notre Dame, 4 p.m., ACC Network
No. 4 Duke at No. 16 North Carolina, 6:30, ESPN
No. 22 Clemson at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Stanford, 8 p.m., ESPNU
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 13 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 14 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 7 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 17 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 22 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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