By R.L. Bynum
With Carolina’s small margin for error, winning all six games heading into Saturday’s senior day clash in the Smith Center against No. 2 Duke was always going to be crucial to making the NCAA men’s tournament field.
Heading into Tuesday’s 7 p.m. game (ESPNU) at Virginia Tech, most projections suggest that the season-high five-game win streak for UNC (19–11, 12–6 ACC) against weak ACC competition hasn’t been convincing enough.
The Hokies (13–16, 8–10) have a NET ranking of 155, making this UNC’s final Quad 3 game of the regular season, and another game that the Tar Heels can’t afford to lose.
Carolina moved up three spots to 42nd in the NET after the 92–73 Quad 4 win over Miami (6–23, 2–16; 223rd in the NET) but slipped back to 43rd following Monday’s results. That’s possibly because Wake Forest (20–10, 12–7) slipped four spots to 72nd after the Deacons’ 93–60 loss Monday at No. 2 Duke.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
After the Miami win, UNC appeared on 11.1% of projections on Bracket Matrix, but that is up to 18.2% (19 of 104) in the Monday update on that website.
Bill Bender of The Sporting News, in a Tuesday projection, has Carolina as the second team on his “Last four in” list, projecting the Tar Heels as the No. 11 seed.
Most other Tuesday updates still have UNC on “first four out” lists, with Jerry Palm of CBS putting UNC second, Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report having the Heels third and USA Today putting Carolina fourth on that list.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* | WAB* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Duke | 17–1 | 29–2 | 1 | 2 |
| No. 10 Virginia | 15–3 | 27–4 | 13 | 11 |
| Miami | 13–5 | 24–7 | 32 | 28 |
| No. 19 North Carolina | 12–6 | 24–7 | 23 | 19 |
| Clemson | 12–6 | 22–9 | 36 | 33 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 11–7 | 22–9 | 14 | 25 |
| N.C. State | 10–8 | 19–12 | 35 | 45 |
| Florida State | 10–8 | 17–14 | 69 | 74 |
| California | 9–9 | 21–10 | 65 | 49 |
| Stanford | 9–9 | 20–11 | 59 | 51 |
| SMU | 8–10 | 19–12 | 39 | 50 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–10 | 19–12 | 53 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 7–11 | 16–15 | 64 | 81 |
| Syracuse | 6–12 | 15–16 | 83 | 92 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–13 | 12–19 | 109 | 146 |
| Notre Dame | 4–14 | 13–18 | 93 | 121 |
| Boston College | 4–14 | 11–20 | 159 | 217 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–16 | 11–20 | 167 | 210 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
No. 1 Duke 76, No. 19 North Carolina 61
Boston College 77, Notre Dame 69
Clemson 79, Georgia Tech 76
No. 24 Louisville 92, Miami 89
Florida State 92, SMU 78
Stanford 85, N.C. State 84
Wake Forest 80, California 73
Pittsburgh 71, Syracuse 69, OT
END OF REGULAR SEASON
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday through Saturday
| Date | Month/day | Scores | Opponent/event (current ranks) | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 17 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 11 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 9 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | W, 71–68 | vs. No. 1 Duke | 19–4, 7–3 |
| 10 | Tuesday | L, 75–66 | at No. 25 Miami | 19–5, 7–4 |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 79–65 | vs. Pittsburgh | 20–5, 8–4 |
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 82–58 | at N.C. State | 20–6, 8–5 |
| 21 | Saturday | W, 77–64 | at Syracuse | 21–6, 9–5 |
| 23 | Monday | W, 77–74 | vs. Louisville | 22–6, 10–5 |
| 28 | Saturday | W, 89–82 | vs. Virginia Tech | 23–6, 11–5 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | W, 67–63 | vs. Clemson | 24–6, 12–5 |
| 7 | Saturday | L, 76–61 | at No. 1 Duke | 24–7, 12–6 |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte | |
| 12 | Thursday | L, 80–79 | Quarterfinals: vs. Clemson | 24–8 |
| NCAA tournament | ||||
| 19 | Thursday | L, 82–78, OT | First round: vs. VCU in Greenville, S.C. | 24–9 |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
