By R.L. Bynum
If the NCAA men’s tournament selection committee sees North Carolina the way that most projections have it, the Tar Heels likely still have work to do to make the field.
There’s little doubt that an upset at 6:30 Saturday at the Smith Center (ESPN) against No. 2 Duke (27–3, 18–1 ACC; 1st in NET rankings) would be enough to put UNC (20–11, 13–6; 38th in the NET) in the field.
Short of that, one or two wins in the ACC tournament next week at Charlotte’s Spectrum Center may be needed. The Tar Heels could be anywhere from a No. 4 to a No. 6 seed in Charlotte (read about the possibilities here).
UNC’s six-game win streak has improved the Tar Heels’ NCAA chances, but only by so much considering the caliber of the competition in a down year for the ACC.
The 96–85 win Feb. 24 at Florida State (16–14, 7–12; 89th in the NET) was a Quad 2 win, the 92–73 home win March 1 over Miami (6–24, 2–17; 227th) was Quad 4 and the other four were Quad 3 victories against teams with NET rankings ranging from 102 (Virginia) to 164 (Virginia Tech).
One of the worst teams in the league, N.C. State (12–18, 5–14), gave Carolina a minor boost. With the Wolfpack’s 71–63 home victory Wednesday over Pittsburgh, their NET ranking jumped to 10 spots to 128, upgrading the Tar Heels’ 63–61 win Jan. 11 in Raleigh from a Quad 3 to a Quad 2.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 4–4; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 3 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 5–0; 3 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
In the Friday update on the Bracket Matrix website, UNC appears on only 17.5% of the 103 projections (18), with one (Offshore Sportsbooks) listing the Tar Heels as a No. 10 seed.
The most encouraging projections for UNC are from Bart Torvick (in a Friday projection), James Fletcher III of On3 (Thursday), Andy Katz on ncaa.com (Tuesday) and Bill Bender of The Sporting News (Friday), all projecting UNC as a No. 11 seed.
Fletcher lists the Tar Heels as the fourth team on his “Last four byes” list, with Bender listing UNC second and Torvick having the Heels first. Getting a bye means not having to go to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four.
In bracket projections updated Friday, the Tar Heels appeared on several “First four out” lists. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS’s Jerry Palm each have the Tar Heels as the second team on their lists while Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports and Craig Meyer of USA Today have UNC third.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 23
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 124
Average NET win: 145
Average NET loss: 42
NET strength of schedule: 65
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 30
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 204 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 15 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 262 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 179 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 158 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 10 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 112 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 292 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 123 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 36 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 287 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 113 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 33 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 66 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 72 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 54 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 83 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 14 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 145 | 3 | |
| F2 | Syracuse | 79 | 3 | |
| F7 | Duke | 3 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 37 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 126 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 27 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 79 | 2 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 51 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 31 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 3 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 8–0 | 19–1 | 2 |
| No. 22 Clemson | 7–1 | 17–4 | 29 |
| No. 17 Virginia | 6–2 | 17–3 | 16 |
| Miami | 6–2 | 17–4 | 36 |
| N.C. State | 6–2 | 15–6 | 27 |
| No. 16 North Carolina | 4–3 | 16–4 | 26 |
| SMU | 4–3 | 15–5 | 31 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–4 | 16–6 | 54 |
| No. 20 Louisville | 4–4 | 14–6 | 19 |
| California | 3–5 | 15–6 | 56 |
| Stanford | 3–5 | 14–7 | 77 |
| Syracuse | 3–5 | 12–9 | 80 |
| Boston College | 2–5 | 9–11 | 157 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–6 | 11–10 | 140 |
| Notre Dame | 2–6 | 11–10 | 82 |
| Wake Forest | 2–6 | 11–10 | 67 |
| Florida State | 2–6 | 9–12 | 107 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–6 | 9–12 | 118 |
* — Through Wednesday games
Monday’s result
No. 4 Duke 83, No. 20 Louisville 52
Tuesday’s results
Pittsburgh 80, Wake Forest 76, OT
N.C. State 88, Syracuse 68
No. 17 Virginia 100, Notre Dame 97, 2 OTs
Virginia Tech 71, Georgia Tech 65
Wednesday’s results
Florida State 63, California 61
Miami 79, Stanford 70
Saturday’s games
No. 4 Duke at Virginia Tech, noon, ESPN
N.C. State at Wake Forest, noon, TV TBA
Pittsburgh at No. 22 Clemson, noon, ACC Network
No. 17 Virginia at Boston College, 1:30, The CW
No. 16 North Carolina at Georgia Tech, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at No. 23 Louisville, 2 p.m., ESPN
California at Miami, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Stanford at Florida State, 6 p.m., ACC Network
Notre Dame at Syracuse, 6 p.m., The CW
Monday’s game
Syracuse at No. 16 North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 13 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 14 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 7 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 17 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at Georgia Tech | ACCN |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 22 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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