By R.L. Bynum
If the NCAA men’s tournament selection committee sees North Carolina the way that most projections have it, the Tar Heels likely still have work to do to make the field.
There’s little doubt that an upset at 6:30 Saturday at the Smith Center (ESPN) against No. 2 Duke (27–3, 18–1 ACC; 1st in NET rankings) would be enough to put UNC (20–11, 13–6; 38th in the NET) in the field.
Short of that, one or two wins in the ACC tournament next week at Charlotte’s Spectrum Center may be needed. The Tar Heels could be anywhere from a No. 4 to a No. 6 seed in Charlotte (read about the possibilities here).
UNC’s six-game win streak has improved the Tar Heels’ NCAA chances, but only by so much considering the caliber of the competition in a down year for the ACC.
The 96–85 win Feb. 24 at Florida State (16–14, 7–12; 89th in the NET) was a Quad 2 win, the 92–73 home win March 1 over Miami (6–24, 2–17; 227th) was Quad 4 and the other four were Quad 3 victories against teams with NET rankings ranging from 102 (Virginia) to 164 (Virginia Tech).
One of the worst teams in the league, N.C. State (12–18, 5–14), gave Carolina a minor boost. With the Wolfpack’s 71–63 home victory Wednesday over Pittsburgh, their NET ranking jumped to 10 spots to 128, upgrading the Tar Heels’ 63–61 win Jan. 11 in Raleigh from a Quad 3 to a Quad 2.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 2–1; 10 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 5 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 1–0; 4 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 4–0; 3 games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
In the Friday update on the Bracket Matrix website, UNC appears on only 17.5% of the 103 projections (18), with one (Offshore Sportsbooks) listing the Tar Heels as a No. 10 seed.
The most encouraging projections for UNC are from Bart Torvick (in a Friday projection), James Fletcher III of On3 (Thursday), Andy Katz on ncaa.com (Tuesday) and Bill Bender of The Sporting News (Friday), all projecting UNC as a No. 11 seed.
Fletcher lists the Tar Heels as the fourth team on his “Last four byes” list, with Bender listing UNC second and Torvick having the Heels first. Getting a bye means not having to go to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four.
In bracket projections updated Friday, the Tar Heels appeared on several “First four out” lists. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS’s Jerry Palm each have the Tar Heels as the second team on their lists while Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports and Craig Meyer of USA Today have UNC third.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 14
High NET: 13
Low NET: 26
Average opponent NET: 152
Average NET win: 170
Average NET loss: 10
NET strength of schedule: 12
KenPom: 22
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 36
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 20
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Sunday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Arkansas | 263 | 4 | Win |
| Kansas | 18 | 1 | Win |
| Radford | 313 | 4 | Win |
| N.C. Central | 346 | 4 | Win |
| Navy | 201 | 4 | Win |
| (N) St. Bonaventure | 72 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Michigan State | 10 | 1 | Loss |
| At Kentucky | 31 | 1 | Win |
| Georgetown | 114 | 3 | Win |
| USC Upstate | 197 | 4 | |
| ETSU | 90 | 3 | |
| (N) Ohio State | 44 | 1 | |
| East Carolina | 316 | 4 | |
| Florida State | 117 | 3 | |
| At SMU | 29 | 1 | |
| Wake Forest | 64 | 2 | |
| At Stanford | 118 | 2 | |
| At California | 59 | 1 | |
| Notre Dame | 69 | 2 | |
| At Virginia | 17 | 1 | |
| Georgia Tech | 209 | 4 | |
| Syracuse | 76 | 3 | |
| Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| At Miami | 25 | 1 | |
| Pittsburgh | 164 | 3 | |
| At N.C. State | 42 | 1 | |
| At Syracuse | 76 | 2 | |
| Louisville | 12 | 1 | |
| Virginia Tech | 54 | 2 | |
| Clemson | 26 | 1 | |
| At Duke | 2 | 1 |
ACC standings
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 3 Duke | 0–0 | 10–0 | 2 |
| SMU | 0–0 | 9–1 | 30 |
| No. 24 Virginia | 0–0 | 9–1 | 17 |
| California | 0–0 | 8–1 | 56 |
| No. 11 Louisville | 0–0 | 8–1 | 12 |
| No. 14 North Carolina | 0–0 | 8–1 | 14 |
| Miami | 0–0 | 8–2 | 25 |
| Virginia Tech | 0–0 | 8–2 | 54 |
| Stanford | 0–0 | 7–2 | 118 |
| Clemson | 0–0 | 7–3 | 26 |
| Notre Dame | 0–0 | 7–3 | 69 |
| Wake Forest | 0–0 | 7–3 | 63 |
| Georgia Tech | 0–0 | 6–4 | 210 |
| N.C. State | 0–0 | 6–3 | 42 |
| Syracuse | 0–0 | 5–3 | 75 |
| Florida State | 0–0 | 5–4 | 117 |
| Boston College | 0–0 | 5–5 | 179 |
| Pittsburgh | 0–0 | 5–5 | 164 |
* — Through Monday games
Sunday’s results
No. 14 North Carolina 81, Georgetown 61
Hofstra 80, Pittsburgh 73
UNLV 75, Stanford 74
SMU 94, Texas A&M 80, OT
Tuesday’s games
No. 10 BYU 67, Clemson 64
Virginia 84, Maryland Eastern Shore 60
Dominican at California, 10 p.m., ACCN Extra
Wednesday’s games
Idaho at Notre Dame, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Liberty at N.C. State, 7 p.m., ACCN
Massachusetts at Boston College, 7 p.m. ESPNU
Thursday’s games
Western Carolina at Virginia Tech, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Saint Joseph’s at Syracuse, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday’s games
Massachusetts at Florida State, noon, ACC Network
Louisiana-Monroe at Miami, noon, ACCN Extra
South Carolina Upstate at No. 14 North Carolina, 2 p.m., The CW
Evansville at Notre Dame, 2 p.m., ACC Network
Mercer at Clemson, 3 p.m., ACCN Extra
Memphis at No. 11 Louisville, 3:30, ESPN
Hofstra at Syracuse, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Pittsburgh at Villanova, 4:30, TNT
Northwestern State at California, 5 p.m., ACCN Extra
No. 19 Kansas at N.C. State, 5:30, ESPN
Stanford at San Jose State, 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
SMU at LSU, 8:30, SEC Network
Sunday’s games
Maryland Eastern Shore at Virginia Tech, noon, ACCN Extra
Queens at Wake Forest, 5 p.m., ACCN Extra
Tuesday, Dec. 16, games
Lipscomb at No. 3 Duke, 6 p.m., ACC Network
No. 11 Louisville at No. 20 Tennessee, 7 p.m., ESPN
Florida State at Dayton, 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
South Carolina at Clemson, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Florida International at Miami, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Marist at Georgia Tech, 7:30, ACCN Extra
East Tennessee State at No. 14 North Carolina, 8 p.m., ACC Network
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 10 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 19 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 9 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. USC Upstate | The CW |
| 16 | Tuesday | 8 p.m. | vs. East Tennessee State | ACCN |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | 3 p.m. | vs. Ohio State | CBS |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | 8 p.m. | vs. East Carolina | ACCN |
| 30 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Florida State | ESPN2 |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | 2:15 | at SMU | The CW |
| 10 | Saturday | 6 p.m. | vs. Wake Forest | ACCN |
| 14 | Wednesday | 9 p.m. | at Stanford | ACCN |
| 17 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | at California | ACCN |
| 21 | Wednesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Notre Dame | ESPN2 |
| 24 | Saturday | 2 or 2:30 | at No. 24 Virginia | ESPN or ESPNU |
| 31 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at Georgia Tech | ACCN |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 3 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 11 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 3 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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