By R.L. Bynum
CHAPEL HILL — With most bracket projections still leaving North Carolina out of the field a week away from Selection Sunday, the Tar Heels likely still have a lot of work to do at the ACC tournament to make the NCAA tournament.
The Tar Heels (20–12) are in a perilous position on the bubble and could be left out when the field is announced next Sunday without a big week in Charlotte.
After a six-game win streak against marginal competition moved UNC up to 38th in the NET rankings, it fell two spots to 40th after Saturday’s 82–69 senior night loss to No. 2-ranked Duke (28–3), which is first in the NET rankings.
“Our responsibility is whomever we play, to be prepared to play our best game on Wednesday and, if we play well enough, we get to play on Thursday and our preparation would shift to that,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said. “You can control what you can control, and what we can control is our play and our preparation for next week on Wednesday in the ACC tournament.”
Only 13.8% of bracket projections in the Monday update on Bracket Matrix before the Duke loss (15 of 108) had UNC in the field, and the Heels are no higher than a No. 11 seed.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS’s Jerry Palm both have UNC as the second team on their “First four out” lists in projections made Tuesday, with the Tar Heels’ 1–11 Quad 1 record looming large. On3’s James Fletcher III has UNC as the first team in his “First four out.”
“I have faith in this team,” RJ Davis said. “We’re not gonna hold our heads down going into the tournament. It’s more about putting our head up high and moving with positivity. We’re a different team than we were a month ago.”
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 4–3; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–1; 3 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 6–0; 2 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
The question is whether No. 5-seed UNC can win its way into the field without making it to Friday’s semifinals and upsetting the No. 1-seed Blue Devils.
Carolina’s second-round game at 2:30 Wednesday (ESPN) will be against the winner of the 2 p.m. Tuesday first-round game: either a Quad 2 game against No. 13-seed Pittsburgh (17–14; 66th in the NET) or a Quad 3 game against No. 12-seed Notre Dame (14–17, 100th).
UNC will have to win by an impressive margin to improve its NET ranking, particularly if the opponent is the Irish. The same will be true in the quarterfinals for a Quad 2 game against No. 4-seed Wake Forest (21–10; 68th).
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 25
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 122
Average NET win: 141
Average NET loss: 44
NET strength of schedule: 50
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 29
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 199 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 14 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 243 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 340 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 170 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 146 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 95 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 286 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 129 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 40 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 289 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 102 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 70 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 78 | 2 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 51 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 85 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 18 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 143 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 73 | 2 | |
| F7 | Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 39 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 114 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 26 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 73 | 2 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 56 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 31 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 2 | 1 |
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday’s first round
No. 12 Notre Dame 55, No. 13 Pittsburgh 54
No. 15 California 82, No. 10 Virginia Tech 73, 2 OTs
No. 14 Syracuse 66, No. 11 Florida State 62
Wednesday’s second round
No. 8 Georgia Tech 66, No. 9 Virginia 60
No. 5 North Carolina 76, Notre Dame 56
No. 7 Stanford 78, California 73
No. 6 SMU 73, Syracuse 53
Thursday’s quarterfinals
No. 1 (and No. 1-ranked) Duke 78, Georgia Tech 70
North Carolina 68, No. 4 Wake Forest 59
No. 2 (and No. 13-ranked) Louisville 75, Stanford 73
No. 3 (and No. 10-ranked) Clemson 57, SMU 54
Friday’s semifinals
Duke 72, North Carolina 71
Louisville 76, Clemson 73
Saturday’s championship
Duke 73, Louisville 62
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 13 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 14 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 7 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 17 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 22 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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