Prominent bracket projections now have UNC in NCAA men’s field as NET ranking rises

By R.L. Bynum

CHARLOTTE — ESPN’s Joe Lunardi changed his view of North Carolina in hours, and Bart Torvik has the Tar Heels comfortably in the field with the view of the Tar Heels is starting to shift as their NET ranking went up four spots to 36th, the highest in nearly two months.

It’s the highest UNC has been in the NET rankings since the Tar Heels were 34th after the Jan. 15 win over California for their fourth consecutive victory.

Lunardi went from saying early Wednesday afternoon in a press availability that North Carolina probably wouldn’t make the field unless the Tar Heels (21–12) beat No. 1 Duke (28–3; 1st in NET) in the ACC tournament semifinals to including them in his projection after their 76–56 second-round victory over Notre Dame at the Spectrum Center.

That win over the Irish was Quad 2 on Wednesday night but fell to Quad 3 overnight when Notre Dame fell below the 100 threshold to 104.

Lunardi had UNC as the second team in his “First four out” list in the bracket he released on Wednesday morning, but has the Tar Heels as the last team in with the bracket that he released Wednesday evening.

Carolina swapped positions in Lunardi’s projection with Ohio State, which went from the last team in the field to the second team on his “First four out” after the Buckeyes’ 77–70 loss to Iowa Wednesday in the Big Ten tournament. Indiana, which Lunardi had as the second team on his “Last four in,” lost to Oregon 72–59 on Thursday afternoon.


Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 50): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower


In his update Wednesday evening, Torvik listed the Tar Heels as the first team in his “Last four in” list and an 11 seed heading to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.

Joe Rexrode of the Athletic has UNC as the third team in his “Last four in” list and a No. 12 seed headed to the First Four. James Fletcher III’s projection on On3 has the Tar Heels as the last team in the field.

“Obviously you hear the noise, you hear being a bubble team, and me experiencing being the No. 1 seed and not making the tournament,” RJ Davis said. “It’s really just about staying present and understanding that anything is possible, so just be smart and enjoy it.”

Jerry Palm’s Thursday update on CBS has UNC as the first team on his “First four out” list.

To keep its hopes alive, though, UNC must beat Wake Forest (21–10; 68th) at 2:30 Thursday in the ACC tournament quarterfinals.

“Our eyes and our preparation are on what is real, and what is real is our preparation in regards to our play [Thursday] against a very good Wake Forest team,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said.

In the Wednesday update on the Bracket Matrix website, which doesn’t reflect the win over the Irish or Ohio State’s loss, only nine of 96 brackets include UNC.

Before the Notre Dame game, Patrick Stevens of The Washington Post projected UNC as the second team on his “First four on the outside” list.

The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams.


UNC’s NCAA résumé

NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27


UNC quad schedule breakdown

(Through Saturday games)

DateOpponentNET
ranking
Current quad
designation
Outcome
N3Central Arkansas1664Win
N7Kansas211Win
N11Radford2524Win
N14N.C. Central3424Win
N18Navy1364Win
N25(N) St. Bonaventure1433Win
N27(N) Michigan State111Loss
D2At Kentucky281Win
D7Georgetown903Win
D13USC Upstate3034Win
D16ETSU1393Win
D20(N) Ohio State291Win
D22East Carolina2674Win
D30Florida State622Win
J3At SMU371Loss
J10Wake Forest672Win
J14At Stanford611Loss
J17At California681Loss
J21Notre Dame943Win
J24At Virginia121Win
J31At Georgia Tech1693Win
F2Syracuse863Win
F7Duke11Win
F10At Miami321Loss
F14Pittsburgh1043Win
F17At N.C. State361Loss
F21At Syracuse861Win
F23Louisville161Win
F28Virginia Tech552Win
M3Clemson342Win
M7At Duke11Loss
M12(N) Clemson34 1Loss
Quad designations are according to the current NET rankings. The only designation that matters is the designation on Selection Sunday.

ACC tournament

Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday’s first round
No. 15 Pittsburgh 64, No. 10 Stanford 63
No. 11 SMU 86, No. 14 Syracuse 69
No. 13 Wake Forest 95, No. 12 Virginia Tech 89, OT
Wednesday’s second round
No. 7 N.C. State 98, Pittsburgh 88
No. 6 (No. 24 ranked) Louisville 62, SMU 58
No. 8 Florida State 95, No. 9 California 89
No. 5 Clemson 71, Wake Forest 62
Thursday’s quarterfinals
No. 2 (No. 10 ranked) Virginia 81, N.C. State 74
No. 3 Miami 78, Louisville 73
No. 1 (No. 1 ranked) Duke 80, Florida State 79
Clemson 80, No. 4 (No. 19 ranked) North Carolina 79
Friday’s semifinals
Virginia 84, Miami 62
Duke 73, Clemson 61
Saturday’s championship
Duke 74, Virginia 70


DateMonth/dayScoresOpponent/event
(current ranks)
Record
October
24FridayL, 78–76vs. BYU in SLCExhib.
29WednesdayW, 95–53vs. Winston-Salem St.Exhib.
November
3MondayW, 94–54vs. Central Arkansas1–0
7FridayW, 87–74vs. No. 17 Kansas2–0
11TuesdayW, 89–74vs. Radford3–0
14FridayW, 97–53vs. N.C. Central4–0
18TuesdayW, 73–61vs. Navy5–0
Fort Myers Tip-Off
25TuesdayW, 85–70vs. St. Bonaventure6–0
27ThursdayL, 74–58vs. No. 11 Michigan State6–1
DecemberACC/SEC
Men’s Challenge
2TuesdayW, 67–64at Kentucky7–1
—————————
7SundayW, 81–61vs. Georgetown8–1
13SaturdayW, 80–62vs. USC Upstate9–1
16TuesdayW, 77–58vs. ETSU10–1
CBS Sports Classic
in Atlanta
20SaturdayW, 71–70vs. Ohio State11–1
—————————
22MondayW, 99–51vs. East Carolina12–1
30TuesdayW, 79–66vs. Florida State13–1,
1–0 ACC
January
3SaturdayL, 97–83at SMU13–2, 1–1
10SaturdayW, 87–84vs. Wake Forest14–2, 2–1
14WednesdayL, 95–90at Stanford14–3, 2–2
17SaturdayL, 84–78at California14–4, 2–3
21WednesdayW, 91–69vs. Notre Dame15–4, 3–3
24SaturdayW, 85–80at No. 9 Virginia16–4, 4–3
31SaturdayW, 91–75at Georgia Tech17–4, 5–3
February
2MondayW, 87–77vs. Syracuse18–4, 6–3
7SaturdayW, 71–68vs. No. 1 Duke19–4, 7–3
10TuesdayL, 75–66at No. 25 Miami19–5, 7–4
14SaturdayW, 79–65vs. Pittsburgh20–5, 8–4
17TuesdayL, 82–58at N.C. State20–6, 8–5
21SaturdayW, 77–64at Syracuse21–6, 9–5
23MondayW, 77–74vs. Louisville22–6, 10–5
28SaturdayW, 89–82vs. Virginia Tech23–6, 11–5
March
3TuesdayW, 67–63vs. Clemson24–6, 12–5
7SaturdayL, 76–61at No. 1 Duke24–7, 12–6
10–14Tues.-Sat.ACC
tournament
Spectrum Center,
Charlotte
12ThursdayL, 80–79Quarterfinals:
vs. Clemson
24–8
NCAA
tournament
19ThursdayL, 82–78, OTFirst round: vs. VCU
in Greenville, S.C.
24–9

Photo courtesy of the ACC

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