By R.L. Bynum
CHARLOTTE — ESPN’s Joe Lunardi changed his view of North Carolina in hours, and Bart Torvik has the Tar Heels comfortably in the field with the view of the Tar Heels is starting to shift as their NET ranking went up four spots to 36th, the highest in nearly two months.
It’s the highest UNC has been in the NET rankings since the Tar Heels were 34th after the Jan. 15 win over California for their fourth consecutive victory.
Lunardi went from saying early Wednesday afternoon in a press availability that North Carolina probably wouldn’t make the field unless the Tar Heels (21–12) beat No. 1 Duke (28–3; 1st in NET) in the ACC tournament semifinals to including them in his projection after their 76–56 second-round victory over Notre Dame at the Spectrum Center.
That win over the Irish was Quad 2 on Wednesday night but fell to Quad 3 overnight when Notre Dame fell below the 100 threshold to 104.
Lunardi had UNC as the second team in his “First four out” list in the bracket he released on Wednesday morning, but has the Tar Heels as the last team in with the bracket that he released Wednesday evening.
Carolina swapped positions in Lunardi’s projection with Ohio State, which went from the last team in the field to the second team on his “First four out” after the Buckeyes’ 77–70 loss to Iowa Wednesday in the Big Ten tournament. Indiana, which Lunardi had as the second team on his “Last four in,” lost to Oregon 72–59 on Thursday afternoon.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–11; 1 game left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 8–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–1): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
In his update Wednesday evening, Torvik listed the Tar Heels as the first team in his “Last four in” list and an 11 seed heading to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.
Joe Rexrode of the Athletic has UNC as the third team in his “Last four in” list and a No. 12 seed headed to the First Four. James Fletcher III’s projection on On3 has the Tar Heels as the last team in the field.
“Obviously you hear the noise, you hear being a bubble team, and me experiencing being the No. 1 seed and not making the tournament,” RJ Davis said. “It’s really just about staying present and understanding that anything is possible, so just be smart and enjoy it.”
Jerry Palm’s Thursday update on CBS has UNC as the first team on his “First four out” list.
To keep its hopes alive, though, UNC must beat Wake Forest (21–10; 68th) at 2:30 Thursday in the ACC tournament quarterfinals.
“Our eyes and our preparation are on what is real, and what is real is our preparation in regards to our play [Thursday] against a very good Wake Forest team,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said.
In the Wednesday update on the Bracket Matrix website, which doesn’t reflect the win over the Irish or Ohio State’s loss, only nine of 96 brackets include UNC.
Before the Notre Dame game, Patrick Stevens of The Washington Post projected UNC as the second team on his “First four on the outside” list.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 36
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 51 on Feb. 10
Average opponent NET: 96
Average NET win: 134
Average NET loss: 25
NET strength of schedule: 48
KenPom: 35
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 27
KPI: 54
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 36
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Wednesday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | 182 | 4 | Win |
| At Kansas | 18 | 1 | Loss |
| American | 227 | 4 | Win |
| At Hawai’i | 223 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Dayton | 67 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Auburn | 2 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Michigan State | 10 | 1 | Loss |
| Alabama | 6 | 1 | Loss |
| Georgia Tech | 111 | 3 | Win |
| La Salle | 219 | 4 | Win |
| (N) Florida | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) UCLA | 23 | 1 | Win |
| Campbell | 222 | 4 | Win |
| At Louisville | 25 | 1 | Loss |
| At Notre Dame | 104 | 3 | Win |
| SMU | 44 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. State | 132 | 2 | Win |
| California | 126 | 3 | Win |
| Stanford | 82 | 3 | Loss |
| At Wake Forest | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston College | 204 | 4 | Win |
| At Pittsburgh | 62 | 1 | Loss |
| At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| Pittsburgh | 62 | 2 | Win |
| At Clemson | 22 | 1 | Loss |
| At Syracuse | 134 | 2 | Win |
| N.C. State | 132 | 3 | Win |
| Virginia | 109 | 3 | Win |
| At Florida State | 90 | 2 | Win |
| Miami | 225 | 4 | Win |
| At Virginia Tech | 166 | 3 | Win |
| Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Notre Dame | 104 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Wake Forest | 68 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Duke | 1 | 1 | |
| (N) Louisville or Clemson (with Friday win) | 25 or 22 | 1 |
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday’s first round
No. 12 Notre Dame 55, No. 13 Pittsburgh 54
No. 15 California 82, No. 10 Virginia Tech 73, 2 OTs
No. 14 Syracuse 66, No. 11 Florida State 62
Wednesday’s second round
No. 8 Georgia Tech 66, No. 9 Virginia 60
No. 5 North Carolina 76, Notre Dame 56
No. 7 Stanford 78, California 73
No. 6 SMU 73, Syracuse 53
Thursday’s quarterfinals
No. 1 (and No. 1-ranked) Duke 78, Georgia Tech 70
North Carolina 68, No. 4 Wake Forest 59
No. 2 (and No. 13-ranked) Louisville 75, Stanford 73
No. 3 (and No. 10-ranked) Clemson 57, SMU 54
Friday’s semifinals
Duke (29–3) vs. North Carolina (22–12), 7 p.m., ESPN
Louisville (26–6) vs. Clemson (27–5), 9:30, ESPN/2
Saturday’s championship
Duke-UNC winner vs. Louisville-Clemson winner, 8:30, ESPN
| Date | Month/day | Time/ score | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 15 | Tuesday | W, 84–76 | at No. 16 Memphis | Exhibition |
| 27 | Sunday | W, 127–63 | vs. Johnson C. Smith | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 4 | Monday | W, 90–76 | vs. Elon | 1–0 |
| 8 | Friday | L, 92–89 | at Kansas | 1–1 |
| 15 | Friday | W, 107–55 | vs. American | 2–1 |
| 22 | Friday | W, 85–69 | at Hawai’i | 3–1 |
| Maui Invitational | ||||
| 25 | Monday | W, 92–90 | Dayton | 4–1 |
| 26 | Tuesday | L, 85–72 | No. 3 Auburn | 4–2 |
| 27 | Wednesday | L, 94–91, OT | No. 7 Michigan State | 4–3 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 4 | Wednesday | L, 94–79 | vs. No. 5 Alabama | 4–4 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Saturday | W, 68–65 | vs. Georgia Tech | 5–4, 1–0 ACC |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 93–67 | vs. LaSalle | 6–4 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 90–84 | No. 4 Florida | 6–5 |
| CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden | ||||
| 21 | Saturday | W, 76–74 | UCLA | 7–5 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Sunday | W, 97–81 | vs. Campbell | 8–5 |
| January | ||||
| 1 | Wednesday | L, 83–70 | at No. 13 Louisville | 8–6, 1–1 |
| 4 | Saturday | W, 74–73 | at Notre Dame | 9–6, 2–1 |
| 7 | Tuesday | W, 82–67 | vs. SMU | 10–6, 3–1 |
| 11 | Saturday | W, 63–61 | at N.C. State | 11–6, 4–1 |
| 15 | Wednesday | W, 79–53 | vs. California | 12–6, 5–1 |
| 18 | Saturday | L, 72–71 | vs. Stanford | 12–7, 5–2 |
| 21 | Tuesday | L, 67–66 | at Wake Forest | 12–8, 5–3 |
| 25 | Saturday | W, 102–96, OT | vs. Boston College | 13–8, 6–3 |
| 28 | Tuesday | L, 73–65 | at Pittsburgh | 13–9, 6–4 |
| February | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | L, 87–70 | at No. 1 Duke | 13–10, 6–5 |
| 8 | Saturday | W, 67–66 | vs. Pittsburgh | 14–10, 7–5 |
| 10 | Monday | L, 85–65 | at No. 10 Clemson | 14–11, 7–6 |
| 15 | Saturday | W, 88–82 | at Syracuse | 15–11, 8–6 |
| 19 | Wednesday | W, 97–73 | vs. N.C. State | 16–11, 9–6 |
| 22 | Saturday | W, 81–66 | vs. Virginia | 17–11, 10–6 |
| 24 | Monday | W, 96–85 | at Florida State | 18–11, 11–6 |
| March | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | W, 92–73 | vs. Miami | 19–11, 12–6 |
| 4 | Tuesday | W, 91–59 | at Virginia Tech | 20–11, 13–6 |
| 8 | Saturday | L, 82–69 | vs. No. 1 Duke | 20–12, 13–7 |
| ACC tournament Spectrum Center, Charlotte | ||||
| 12 | Wednesday | W, 76–56 | 2nd-round: vs. Notre Dame | 21–12 |
| 13 | Thursday | W, 68–59 | Quarterfinal: vs. Wake Forest | 22–12 |
| 14 | Friday | 7 p.m. | Semifinal: vs. No. 1 Duke | ESPN |
| 15 | Saturday | 8:30 | Final (with Fri. win): No. 10 Louisville or No. 13 Clemson | ESPN |
Photo courtesy of the ACC
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