By R.L. Bynum
CHARLOTTE — For the first time since Feb. 2, the consensus on Bracket Matrix is that North Carolina has done enough to make the NCAA tournament, and Bart Torvik projects that the Tar Heels won’t have to play in the First Four.
In a Friday update on Bracket Matrix after the Tar Heels’ 68–59 victory Thursday over Wake Forest in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament, UNC is a consensus No. 12 seed, appearing on 52.9% (45 of 85) of the brackets after going from 9.7% on Wednesday to 37.7% on Thursday.
That’s the highest percentage of brackets that UNC (22–12) has appeared on since making 49.4% (45 of 91) of the brackets on Feb. 2 and the first time the Tar Heels have appeared in more than half the ballots since late January.
UNC moved up one spot in the NET after the win to 35th, its highest position since it was 34th after the Jan. 15 victory over California.
After the win over the Demon Deacons, Torvik — whose metric is one of the ones that the NCAA tournament selection committee uses — has UNC the fourth team on his “Last four byes” list, which would mean no trip to Dayton for the First Four.
The latest projections of Joe Lunardi’s ESPN and USA Today have UNC as the third team in “Last four in” lists and playing in the First Four. Lunardi has UNC facing San Diego State as a No. 11 seed and USA Today has the Heels taking on Boise State as a No. 12 seed. On3 projects UNC to face West Virginia as a No. 11 seed in the First Four.
Jerry Palm of CBS has UNC as the first team of his “First 4 out” list.
Coach Hubert Davis isn’t worried about all of that.
“My communication with them in regards to the NCAA tournament has been zero,” he said. “What is real for us is our improvement as a team. What is real for us has been the opponent right in front of us. Right now, it’s playing Duke [Friday] at 7:00. Those are the things that we’re focused on.”
While it may not be his focus, a Quad 1 win over the No. 1 Blue Devils (29–3; 1st in NET) would all but seal an NCAA tournament berth. Should UNC get past Duke, it would get a second consecutive Quad 1 game in the ACC tournament championship against either Clemson (26–5; 22nd in the NET) or Louisville (26–6; 26th).
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–11; 1 game left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 8–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–1): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
Thursday was a mixed bag for UNC regarding success for other teams battling in the bubble for an NCAA berth:
— Indiana (19–13; 54th in NET) lost 72–59 in the Big Ten tournament to Oregon.
— Xavier (21–11; 46th) lost 89–87 in the Big East tournament to No. 25 Marquette.
— Boise State (23–9; 43rd) beat San Diego State 62–52 in the Mountain West tournament. The Broncos face New Mexico (25–6; 42nd in NET) at 9:30 Friday night in the semifinals in a Quad 1 game.
— Texas (19–14; 38th) upset No. 14 Texas A&M 94–89 in double overtime in the SEC tournament. The Longhorns meet No. 8 Tennessee (25–6; 5th in the NET) at 3:30 p.m. Friday in a quarterfinal game, another Quad 1 game.
— Colorado State (23–9; 52nd) beat Nevada 67–59 in the Mountain West tournament. The Rams take on Utah State (25–6; 37th in NET) in a semifinal game at midnight Friday, a Quad 1 game.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 35
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 51 on Feb. 10
Average opponent NET: 96
Average NET win: 135
Average NET loss: 25
NET strength of schedule: 48
KenPom: 35
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 27
KPI: 54
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 36
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Thursday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | 184 | 4 | Win |
| At Kansas | 20 | 1 | Loss |
| American | 226 | 4 | Win |
| At Hawai’i | 223 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Dayton | 67 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Auburn | 2 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Michigan State | 10 | 1 | Loss |
| Alabama | 6 | 1 | Loss |
| Georgia Tech | 107 | 3 | Win |
| La Salle | 215 | 4 | Win |
| (N) Florida | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) UCLA | 24 | 1 | Win |
| Campbell | 222 | 4 | Win |
| At Louisville | 26 | 1 | Loss |
| At Notre Dame | 103 | 3 | Win |
| SMU | 45 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. State | 132 | 2 | Win |
| California | 125 | 3 | Win |
| Stanford | 81 | 3 | Loss |
| At Wake Forest | 69 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston College | 204 | 4 | Win |
| At Pittsburgh | 62 | 1 | Loss |
| At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| Pittsburgh | 62 | 2 | Win |
| At Clemson | 22 | 1 | Loss |
| At Syracuse | 133 | 2 | Win |
| N.C. State | 132 | 3 | Win |
| Virginia | 110 | 3 | Win |
| At Florida State | 90 | 2 | Win |
| Miami | 225 | 4 | Win |
| At Virginia Tech | 167 | 3 | Win |
| Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Notre Dame | 103 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Wake Forest | 69 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Duke | 1 | 1 | |
| (N) Louisville or Clemson (with Friday win) | 26 or 22 | 1 |
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday’s first round
No. 12 Notre Dame 55, No. 13 Pittsburgh 54
No. 15 California 82, No. 10 Virginia Tech 73, 2 OTs
No. 14 Syracuse 66, No. 11 Florida State 62
Wednesday’s second round
No. 8 Georgia Tech 66, No. 9 Virginia 60
No. 5 North Carolina 76, Notre Dame 56
No. 7 Stanford 78, California 73
No. 6 SMU 73, Syracuse 53
Thursday’s quarterfinals
No. 1 (and No. 1-ranked) Duke 78, Georgia Tech 70
North Carolina 68, No. 4 Wake Forest 59
No. 2 (and No. 13-ranked) Louisville 75, Stanford 73
No. 3 (and No. 10-ranked) Clemson 57, SMU 54
Friday’s semifinals
Duke (29–3) vs. North Carolina (22–12), 7 p.m., ESPN
Louisville (26–6) vs. Clemson (27–5), 9:30, ESPN/2
Saturday’s championship
Duke-UNC winner vs. Louisville-Clemson winner, 8:30, ESPN
| Date | Month/day | Time/ score | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 15 | Tuesday | W, 84–76 | at No. 16 Memphis | Exhibition |
| 27 | Sunday | W, 127–63 | vs. Johnson C. Smith | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 4 | Monday | W, 90–76 | vs. Elon | 1–0 |
| 8 | Friday | L, 92–89 | at Kansas | 1–1 |
| 15 | Friday | W, 107–55 | vs. American | 2–1 |
| 22 | Friday | W, 85–69 | at Hawai’i | 3–1 |
| Maui Invitational | ||||
| 25 | Monday | W, 92–90 | Dayton | 4–1 |
| 26 | Tuesday | L, 85–72 | No. 3 Auburn | 4–2 |
| 27 | Wednesday | L, 94–91, OT | No. 7 Michigan State | 4–3 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 4 | Wednesday | L, 94–79 | vs. No. 5 Alabama | 4–4 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Saturday | W, 68–65 | vs. Georgia Tech | 5–4, 1–0 ACC |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 93–67 | vs. LaSalle | 6–4 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 90–84 | No. 4 Florida | 6–5 |
| CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden | ||||
| 21 | Saturday | W, 76–74 | UCLA | 7–5 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Sunday | W, 97–81 | vs. Campbell | 8–5 |
| January | ||||
| 1 | Wednesday | L, 83–70 | at No. 13 Louisville | 8–6, 1–1 |
| 4 | Saturday | W, 74–73 | at Notre Dame | 9–6, 2–1 |
| 7 | Tuesday | W, 82–67 | vs. SMU | 10–6, 3–1 |
| 11 | Saturday | W, 63–61 | at N.C. State | 11–6, 4–1 |
| 15 | Wednesday | W, 79–53 | vs. California | 12–6, 5–1 |
| 18 | Saturday | L, 72–71 | vs. Stanford | 12–7, 5–2 |
| 21 | Tuesday | L, 67–66 | at Wake Forest | 12–8, 5–3 |
| 25 | Saturday | W, 102–96, OT | vs. Boston College | 13–8, 6–3 |
| 28 | Tuesday | L, 73–65 | at Pittsburgh | 13–9, 6–4 |
| February | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | L, 87–70 | at No. 1 Duke | 13–10, 6–5 |
| 8 | Saturday | W, 67–66 | vs. Pittsburgh | 14–10, 7–5 |
| 10 | Monday | L, 85–65 | at No. 10 Clemson | 14–11, 7–6 |
| 15 | Saturday | W, 88–82 | at Syracuse | 15–11, 8–6 |
| 19 | Wednesday | W, 97–73 | vs. N.C. State | 16–11, 9–6 |
| 22 | Saturday | W, 81–66 | vs. Virginia | 17–11, 10–6 |
| 24 | Monday | W, 96–85 | at Florida State | 18–11, 11–6 |
| March | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | W, 92–73 | vs. Miami | 19–11, 12–6 |
| 4 | Tuesday | W, 91–59 | at Virginia Tech | 20–11, 13–6 |
| 8 | Saturday | L, 82–69 | vs. No. 1 Duke | 20–12, 13–7 |
| ACC tournament Spectrum Center, Charlotte | ||||
| 12 | Wednesday | W, 76–56 | 2nd-round: vs. Notre Dame | 21–12 |
| 13 | Thursday | W, 68–59 | Quarterfinal: vs. Wake Forest | 22–12 |
| 14 | Friday | 7 p.m. | Semifinal: vs. No. 1 Duke | ESPN |
| 15 | Saturday | 8:30 | Final (with Fri. win): No. 10 Louisville or No. 13 Clemson | ESPN |
Photo courtesy of the ACC
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