By R.L. Bynum
The projections for North Carolina have only become less favorable since Friday’s ACC tournament semifinal loss to No. 1 Duke.
If the NCAA men’s tournament selection committee agrees, winning eight of their last 10 games — with the only losses against the Blue Devils (31–3; 1st in NET) — won’t be enough for the Tar Heels (22–13) to make the field. It could be a rare year where a team 36th in the NET, which is where UNC stands, misses the field.
This evening, the question could become whether or not the players favor continuing the season in the 32-team NIT, which would likely mean three home games. UNC declined an NIT bid when the Tar Heels missed the NCAA tournament in 2023, but the program could have a different mindset this time around.
The NCAA Selection Show is at 6 p.m. on CBS. The NIT will announce its field on its X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram accounts.
First-round NIT games are Tuesday and Wednesday, with the second round Saturday and Sunday and the quarterfinals March 25–26. The semifinals are on Tuesday, April 1, and the championship game is on Thursday, April 3, at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Carolina made it to the championship game before losing to Dayton 79–68 when it last played in the NIT in 2010 as a No. 4 seed. If it chose to participate this season, UNC would likely be a No. 1 NIT seed, with SMU (23–10; 46th), Pittsburgh (17–15; 61st), Wake Forest (21–11; 69th) and Stanford (20–13; 81st) also possible NIT teams.
UNC won the NIT title in 1971 behind MVP Bill Chamberlain and Bobby Jones, when the tournament was much more prestigious. Teams had to win their conference titles to make the 25-team NCAA tournament and only 16 teams made the NIT.
Ultimately, Carolina’s 1–12 record in Quad 1 games was damning, but other numbers are also damaging for the Tar Heels:
— 0–5 against the ACC teams that are locks for the NCAA (Duke, Clemson and Louisville)
— 2–7 against the top seven ACC teams (wins over SMU and Wake Forest)
— 0–8 against teams in the top 20 of the NET
— 1–10 vs. teams in the NET’s top 40
— 1–10 against the expected NCAA at-large field
On Bracket Matrix, Carolina went from appearing on 64.6% (73 of 113) of the projections before the Duke game to 36.4% (43 of 118) after the game to 24.3% Sunday (27 of 111).
UNC is the second team out on Sunday morning update of Joe Rexrode at The Athletic. Bart Torvik, Joe Lunardi at ESPN, CBS’ Jerry Palm and USA Today all have UNC as the third team out.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
It didn’t help when Mountain West regular-season champion New Mexico lost in the league’s tournament semifinals. That means the league will get at least two bids after Colorado State (25–9; 47th in the NET) blew out No. 5-seed Boise State (23–10, 44th in NET) 69–56 in Saturday’s championship. Palm has the Broncos as the last team in.
If UNC is to have any shot at getting a berth, favorites VCU (28–6; 31st) and Memphis (28–5; 50th) needed to win their league tournament championship games Sunday and both did.
No. 1-seed VCU held off No. 2-seed George Mason (26–8; 68th) 68–63 in the Atlantic 10 championship, then No. 1-seed Memphis (29–5; 50th) beat No. 3-seed UAB 84–72 in the American Athletic championship game.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams.
Cunningham must leave the room when Carolina’s fate is discussed.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| Date | Month/day | Scores | Opponent/event (current ranks) | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 17 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 11 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 9 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | W, 71–68 | vs. No. 1 Duke | 19–4, 7–3 |
| 10 | Tuesday | L, 75–66 | at No. 25 Miami | 19–5, 7–4 |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 79–65 | vs. Pittsburgh | 20–5, 8–4 |
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 82–58 | at N.C. State | 20–6, 8–5 |
| 21 | Saturday | W, 77–64 | at Syracuse | 21–6, 9–5 |
| 23 | Monday | W, 77–74 | vs. Louisville | 22–6, 10–5 |
| 28 | Saturday | W, 89–82 | vs. Virginia Tech | 23–6, 11–5 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | W, 67–63 | vs. Clemson | 24–6, 12–5 |
| 7 | Saturday | L, 76–61 | at No. 1 Duke | 24–7, 12–6 |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte | |
| 12 | Thursday | L, 80–79 | Quarterfinals: vs. Clemson | 24–8 |
| NCAA tournament | ||||
| 19 | Thursday | L, 82–78, OT | First round: vs. VCU in Greenville, S.C. | 24–9 |
Photo by Smith Hardy
