By R.L. Bynum
For North Carolina, the projected numbers tell a story that begins on the perimeter with Kyan Evans and includes plenty of production inside from Henri Veesaar, among others.
That’s according to the statistical projections of basketball analytics guru Evan Miyakawa (EvanMiya.com), who projects Evans, a 6–2 junior Colorado State transfer point guard, to rank No. 8 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.6%.
Combine that with a team-high free-throw percentage projection of 82.8%, and Evans figures to be a reliable option when the game slows down and every possession matters.
Evans is a career 44.6% shooter from outside the arc and 85.2% from the free throw line, with the ability to stretch defenses.
Coach Hubert Davis has emphasized that spacing will be necessary for the Tar Heels, and Evans will help provide that. His shooting forces defenders to extend beyond the arc, opening driving lanes and creating opportunities for teammates.
Veesaar, a 6–11 Arizona junior transfer center, looms as a significant force, according to Miyakawa’s projections. He is predicted to lead the team in scoring volume (points per 100 possessions) at 25.4, and projects to shoot a team-leading 67.7% inside the arc (he’s shot 66.9% for his career) but 31.1% from 3-point range (31.7% for his career).
His efficiency around the rim makes him a natural focal point in the half-court, forcing opponents to adjust. Veesaar’s presence will redefine UNC’s offensive balance after last season’s team lacked a true big man, allowing the Tar Heels to punish defenses inside and out.
Veesaar’s ability to finish at a high clip means UNC can generate easy points even when the pace slows.
Virginia Tech transfer Jaydon Young, a 6–4 junior guard, is projected to have the second-highest scoring volume (23.4), but it’s unclear how many minutes he’ll get per game.
Five-star freshman 6–10 forward Caleb Wilson (22.4) and junior Montenegrin newcomer Luka Bogavac (22.2), in no surprise, are next on the scoring volume projections, followed by 6–5 freshman guard Derek Dixon (22.1) and sophomore 6–10 center Zayden High (21.9).
Second behind Evans in projected 3-point shooting percentage is 6–3 senior guard Seth Trimble, 34.3% (29.8% for his career), followed by three newcomers at 34.1%: Wilson, Bogavac and Dixon.
Second behind Evans in projected free-throw percentage is Young (81.6%; 84.1% for his career), followed by Trimble (78.8%; 74.3% for his career) and Bogavac (73.9%).
While Alabama transfer Jarin Stevenson, a 6–10 junior, has a team-low scoring volume projection at 15.3 (even behind the walk-ons), he’s second in projected 2-point shooting percentage at 61.3.
Of course, projections aren’t guarantees. Shooting slumps happen, and post touches can be hard to come by against elite defenses; sometimes, players just don’t meet expectations.
That happened last season when Miyakawa projected Cade Tyson to shoot 41.3% from 3-point range, ranking him third in the country. After shooting 46.5% the previous season at Belmont, he only shot 29.2% at Carolina last season. He transferred to Minnesota in the offseason and scored 28 points and was 6 of 9 from outside the arc Thursday in an 80–54 exhibition win over North Dakota State.
The Tar Heels can only hope the good projections pan out this season.
Evan Miyakawa UNC player projections
| Player | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | SV* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri Veesaar | 31.3 | 67.7 | 69.6 | 25.4 |
| Jaydon Young | 33.8 | 45.1 | 81.6 | 23.4 |
| Caleb Wilson | 34.1 | 48.6 | 74 | 22.4 |
| Luka Bogavac | 34.1 | 48.6 | 73.9 | 22.2 |
| Derek Dixon | 34.1 | 48.5 | 73.8 | 22.1 |
| Zayden High | 34 | 48.5 | 73.6 | 21.9 |
| Isaiah Denis | 34 | 48.4 | 73.6 | 21.8 |
| Kyan Evans | 39.7 | 49.3 | 82.8 | 20.7 |
| James Brown | 32.1 | 57 | 60.8 | 20.6 |
| Seth Trimble | 34.3 | 50.9 | 78.8 | 20.4 |
| Evan Smith | 33.1 | 47.1 | 70.4 | 18.7 |
| Ivan Matlekovic | 30.6 | 54.7 | 59.5 | 18.1 |
| Jonathan Powell | 33.5 | 49.3 | 72.7 | 17.4 |
| Elijah Davis | 33.3 | 45.2 | 72.7 | 17.4 |
| John Holbrook | 32 | 51.5 | 64.7 | 16.7 |
| Jarin Stevenson | 31.2 | 61.3 | 64.9 | 15.3 |
* — Scoring volume (points per 100 possessions); numbers for category leads in bold.
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Roster assuming all players with eligibility other than Caleb Wilson, Luka Bogavac, Derek Dixon, Kyan Evans, Jonathan Powell, James Brown, Ivan Matlekovic and Zayden High return and the players in the incoming freshman class hold in their commitment (Dylan Mingo has reopened his recruitment), which would put UNC three under the 15-player limit. The class for next season is listed.
| No./ Stars | Class | Player | Pos. | Hgt | Wgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 star | Freshman | Maximo Adams | SF | 6–7 | 205 |
| 4 star | Freshman | Malloy Smith | CG | 6–5 | 190 |
| Sophomore | Neoklis Avdalas — W | G | 6–5 | 215 | |
| Sophomore | Isaiah Denis | G | 6–4 | 180 | |
| Sophomore | Matt Able — X | G | 6–6 | 205 | |
| Junior | Maxim Logue — Y | C | 6–9 | 232 | |
| Senior | Terrence Brown — Z | G | 6–3 | 174 | |
| 4 | Senior | Jaydon Young | G | 6–4 | 200 |
| 13 | RS senior | Henri Veesaar | 5 | 7–0 | 225 |
| 15 | Senior | Jarin Stevenson | 4 | 6–10 | 215 |
| Walk-ons | |||||
| 25 | Junior | John Holbrook | 4 | 6–8 | 230 |
| 32 | Senior | Evan Smith | 2 | 6–1 | 195 |
W — Virginia Tech transfer; X — N.C. State transfer; Y — FAU transfer; X — Utah transfer
In transfer portal
| Player | Class next season | Pos. | Hgt | Wgt | Next school |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Bogavac | Senior | W | 6–6 | 215 | Oklahoma State |
| James Brown | Senior | C | 6–10 | 240 | |
| Derek Dixon | Sophomore | G | 6–5 | 200 | Arizona |
| Kyan Evans | Senior | G | 6–2 | 175 | Minnesota |
| Zayden High | Junior | C | 6–10 | 230 | South Florida |
| Jonathan Powell | Junior | G | 6–6 | 190 | Pittsburgh |
| Ivan Matlekovic | Junior | C | 7–0 | 255 |
Key offseason dates
April 7 — Transfer portal opened
April 16 — Was the deadline to request an evaluation from the NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee
11:59 p.m. Tuesday — Transfer portal closes
11:59 p.m. Friday — NBA early-entry deadline
Sunday — Deadline for UNC players on last season’s roster to enter the transfer portal
May 8–10 — G-League Combine in Chicago
May 10 — NBA Draft Lottery
May 10–17 — NBA Draft Combine in Chicago
May 27 (11:59 p.m.) — NCAA early-entry withdrawal deadline
Week of June 22 (date to be determined) — NBA Draft
Nonconference schedule so far
(Other than the ACC/SEC Challenge, games without links revealed from reporting by Alex Rosinski)
(10 of 14 games)
Nov. 2 — vs. Western Carolina
Nov. 6 — vs. Wofford
Nov. 10 — vs. Wyoming
Nov. 13 — vs. Georgia
Nov. 20 — vs. Marshall
Dec. 1 or 2 — vs. SEC team in ACC/SEC Challenge
Dec. 12 — at Georgetown
Dec. 19 — vs. Kentucky in CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden
Dec. 21 — vs. The Citadel
November or December — vs. Butler
Photo by Joshua Lawton
