By R.L. Bynum
It’s clear that North Carolina freshman Caleb Wilson is one of the best players in the country.
After watching him produce a double-double (21 points, 13 rebounds) in addition to having an impact in many ways against his N.C. Central team in No. 18 UNC’s 97–53 win on Friday, Eagles coach LeVelle Moton was effusive with his praise.
“Caleb is absolutely incredible,” Moton said. “If there’s anyone better in the country, I’ve got to see that for myself, because this kid is remarkable.”
The eye test tells Moton and everyone in the basketball world that Wilson, who leads the country in dunks with 16, is performing at a high level, and the analytics confirm that.
According to basketball analytics expert Evan Miyakawa’s Box BPR (Bayesian Performance Rating), Wilson has been the fourth-best player in the country so far this season with a value of 5.34.
The only players ahead of Wilson are Duke freshman forward Cameron Boozer (6.70), Texas Tech sophomore guard Christian Anderson (5.50) and South Florida senior guard Josh Omajafo (5.44).
Wilson is shooting 66.7% and averaging 20 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. According to ESPN, the only other ACC freshmen in the last 30 years with a 20-point double-double while shooting at least 85% were Duke’s Zion Williamson in 2019 and N.C. State’s J.J. Hickson in 2007.
The Box BPR value is the sum of a player’s box offensive ratings and box defensive ratings. It estimates a player’s overall value, based on his individual statistics.
The next-highest Carolina players in that metric are Henri Veesaar (2.72), followed by Kyan Evans (2.47) and Luka Bogavac (1.69).
Wilson has the highest Box Offensive BPR on the team at 3.82, followed by Veesaar (3.47) and Evans (3.31). In Box Defensive BPR, Wilson leads the team by a wide margin at 3.26, followed by Jarin Stevenson (2.38), Seth Trimble (1.85), Bogavac (1.64) and Jonathan Powell (1.16).
The above numbers are based on statistics so far this season. Wilson was underestimated before the season, and that dynamic is reflected in Miyakawa’s overall ranking, which predicts how valuable a player will be (far left column in the table below).
Under that metric, Wilson is 27th in the country, Veesaar 58th and Trimble 155.
You can dig into the numbers on the table below or visit EvanMiya.com.
Analytics on UNC’s roster
Data courtesy of EvanMiya.com
| Rank | Player | Box BPR | Offensive BPR | Defensive BPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Caleb Wilson | 5.34 | 3.82 | 3.26 |
| 58 | Henri Veesaar | 2.72 | 3.47 | 2.6 |
| 155 | Seth Trimble | 0.45 | 2.74 | 1.85 |
| 169 | Kyan Evans | 2.47 | 3.31 | 1.16 |
| 302 | Luka Bogavac | 1.69 | 1.81 | 1.64 |
| 307 | Jarin Stevenson | 0.19 | 1.05 | 2.38 |
| 564 | Jonathan Powell | -0.09 | 1.2 | 1.16 |
| 989 | Derek Dixon | 0.45 | 0.35 | 0.86 |
| 1,625 | Zayden High | 0.06 | -0.65 | 0.69 |
| 1,908 | Jaydon Young | -1.17 | 0.19 | -0.57 |
| 2,042 | James Brown | 0.07 | -0.46 | -0.08 |
Rank is where each player stands nationally on a predictive metric of a player’s value over the course of a season.
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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