By R.L. Bynum
The NET rankings can fluctuate wildly early in the season, leading to surprising changes.
That was the case for No. 12-ranked North Carolina (12–1) when the Tar Heels fell four spots to 19 in the NET rankings after Saturday night’s 71–70 Quad 1 victory in the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta over Ohio State.
After the 99–51 Monday win over East Carolina (with the third-lowest NET of any UNC opponent at 302), which was only a Quad 4 victory? The Heels moved up to 16 and then to 15 after Tuesday’s games, returning their NET ranking to the second-highest in the ACC.
Obviously, the game margins had something to do with how the results changed UNC’s NET ranking.
With the Buckeyes’ NET ranking only dropping to 47 after the game, and now at 43, the win will stay Quad 1 for now. But it would become Quad 2 if that falls below 50.
The consensus of the 32 projections that Bracket Matrix listed on Tuesday is for UNC to be the third-highest No. 4 seed, with nine projecting the Tar Heels as high as a No. 3 seed and one listing them as a No. 6 seed. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UNC as a 5 seed.
Next up for UNC is a Quad 3 game as the Tar Heels open ACC play at home against Florida State (7–6; NET ranking of 129) at 7 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 30 (ESPN2).
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 5–4; 6 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 2–0; 1 game left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–0; 1 game left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
UNC has eight remaining Quad 1 games, but the home game against Notre Dame on Jan. 21 moved from Quad 2 to Quad 3 over the weekend after the Irish lost 72–69 at home to Purdue Fort Wayne on Sunday. That dropped the Irish (9–4) in the NET rankings from 61 to 81.
That leaves the Tar Heels with five more Quad 2 games and five more Quad 3 games.
No. 11 Louisville (10–2) is just behind UNC in the NET at 17 after a 94–54 win over Montana.
No. 3 Duke (11–1) fell two spots to 4 after the Blue Devils’ 82–81 loss at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night to No. 19 Texas Tech but moved back up to 3 on Monday.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 24
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 122
Average NET win: 141
Average NET loss: 44
NET strength of schedule: 50
KenPom: 27
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 180 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 13 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 244 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 339 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 160 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 141 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 12 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 94 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 281 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 116 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 37 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 279 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 95 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 69 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 59 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 89 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 16 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 151 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 68 | 2 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 3 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 38 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 121 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 27 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 68 | 1 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 30 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 3 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 10–1 | 21–2 | 3 |
| No. 20 Clemson | 10–1 | 20–4 | 30 |
| No. 18 Virginia | 9–2 | 20–3 | 16 |
| N.C. State | 9–2 | 18–6 | 27 |
| No. 14 North Carolina | 7–3 | 19–4 | 24 |
| Miami | 7–3 | 18–5 | 38 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 7–4 | 17–6 | 17 |
| SMU | 5–5 | 16–7 | 34 |
| California | 5–6 | 17–7 | 59 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–6 | 16–8 | 55 |
| Florida State | 4–6 | 11–12 | 95 |
| Stanford | 4–7 | 15–9 | 69 |
| Syracuse | 4–7 | 13–11 | 68 |
| Wake Forest | 2–8 | 11–12 | 67 |
| Boston College | 2–8 | 9–14 | 147 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–9 | 11–13 | 151 |
| Notre Dame | 2–9 | 11–13 | 89 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–9 | 9–15 | 121 |
* — Through Saturday games
Saturday’s results
N.C. State 82, Virginia Tech 71
No. 18 Virginia 72, Syracuse 59
No. 24 Louisville 88, Wake Forest 80
Miami 74, Boston College 68
SMU 86, Pittsburgh 67
Florida State 82, Notre Dame 79
No. 14 North Carolina 71, No. 4 Duke 68
No. 20 Clemson 77, California 55
Stanford 95, Georgia Tech 72
Monday’s game
N.C. State at No. 24 Louisville, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
No. 14 North Carolina at Miami, 7 p.m., ESPN
No. 18 Virginia at Florida State, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Notre Dame at SMU, 7 p.m., ACC Network
No. 4 Duke at Pittsburgh, 9 p.m., ESPN
Wednesday’s games
Virginia Tech at No. 20 Clemson, ACC Network
California at Syracuse, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stanford at Boston College, 9 p.m., ESPNU
Saturday, Feb. 14, games
No. 20 Clemson at No. 4 Duke, noon, ESPN
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame, noon, The CW
California at Boston College, noon, ACC Network
Pittsburgh at No. 14 North Carolina, 2 p.m., ESPN
Florida State at Virginia Tech, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Syracuse, 2 p.m., The CW
No. 24 Louisville vs. Baylor in Fort Worth, Texas, 4 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2
Stanford at Wake Forest, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Miami at N.C. State, 4 p.m., ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU
No. 18 Virginia vs. Ohio State in Nashville, 8 p.m., Fox
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 16 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 11 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 10 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 18 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | W, 71–68 | vs. No. 4 Duke | 19–4, 7–3 |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 24 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo by Adam Hagy/Intersport
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