By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina heads into the new year in position to host first- and second-round games in the NCAA women’s tournament, but still with a lot of work ahead.
While ESPN’s Charlie Creme’s latest projection has the No. 16 Tar Heels (11–3, 0–1 ACC) as a No. 4 seed, which would mean hosting, their NET ranking of 20 would translate to a low No. 5 seed. Over the years, Creme has consistently projected that UNC would earn a higher seed than the selection committee gives the Tar Heels.
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA women’s quadrant system
(Different criteria for each quadrant than those used for men’s basketball)
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 0–3; 4 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 25 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 35 or better, and road games against teams ranked 45 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 2–0; 6 games left): Home 26–55, neutral 36–65, road 46–80
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 2–0; 4 games left): Home 56–90, neutral 66–105, road 81–130
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 7–0; 3 games left): Home 91 or lower, neutral 106 or lower, road 131 or lower
Two factors working against UNC are its 0–3 record in Quad 1 games and the fact that all remaining four Quad 1 opportunities are on the road.
Carolina starts the new year with a Quad 3 noon home game on New Year’s Day against California (6–5, 0–1; NET ranking of 63).
UNC played No. 4 UCLA (11–1; 4) and No. 2 Texas (14–0; 3) tough for one half before letting those games get away. Despite not playing well, Carolina had a chance at a Quad 1 win in its ACC opener against No. 13 Louisville (12–3, 2–0; 13) before losing in overtime.
Carolina’s wins at the Cancun Challenge over Kansas State (7–7; 69) and Columbia (8–4; 70) were Quad 2 when the games were played, but have fallen to Quad 3. That leaves the Heels with only two Quad 2 wins: Fairfield (8–3; 41) in Las Vegas and South Dakota State (10–4; 47) in Cancun.
The Tar Heels’ only Quad 1 chance next month is Jan. 11 when they visit Notre Dame (9–2, 1–0; NET ranking of 16). The other three Quad 1 games are Feb. 2 at N.C. State (9–4, 2–0; 30), Feb. 15 at Duke (6–6, 1–0; 29) and Feb. 26 at Virginia (9–3, 1–0; 33).
UNC likely needs to split those four games at least to be an NCAA host.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via warrennolan.com)
NET ranking: 20
Average NET win: 199
Average NET loss: 6
NET strength of schedule: 36
Massey Ratings: 27
Torvik rankings: 12
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Tuesday games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| N.C. Central | 311 | 4 | Win |
| Elon | 216 | 4 | Win |
| (N) UCLA | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Fairfield | 41 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. A&T | 267 | 4 | Win |
| UNCG | 241 | 4 | Win |
| (N) South Dakota State | 47 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Kansas State | 69 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Columbia | 70 | 3 | Win |
| At Texas | 3 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston University | 282 | 4 | Win |
| Louisville | 13 | 1 | Loss |
| UNCW | 317 | 4 | Win |
| Charleston Southern | 335 | 4 | Win |
| Boston College | 215 | 4 | |
| California | 63 | 3 | |
| Stanford | 31 | 2 | |
| At Notre Dame | 16 | 1 | |
| Miami | 45 | 2 | |
| At Florida State | 113 | 3 | |
| At Georgia Tech | 122 | 3 | |
| Syracuse | 40 | 2 | |
| At N.C. State | 30 | 1 | |
| Clemson | 48 | 2 | |
| At Wake Forest | 119 | 3 | |
| SMU | 137 | 4 | |
| At Duke | 29 | 1 | |
| At Virginia Tech | 52 | 2 | |
| Pittsburgh | 234 | 4 | |
| At Virginia | 33 | 1 | |
| Duke | 29 | 2 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 17 Duke | 12–0 | 17–6 | 13 |
| No. 6 Louisville | 11–1 | 21–4 | 7 |
| Syracuse | 9–3 | 19–4 | 36 |
| N.C. State | 9–3 | 16–7 | 25 |
| No. 25 North Carolina | 8–3 | 19–5 | 21 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–4 | 18–6 | 43 |
| Virginia | 8–4 | 16–7 | 38 |
| Clemson | 7–5 | 16–8 | 40 |
| Notre Dame | 7–5 | 15–8 | 30 |
| Stanford | 5–6 | 16–8 | 37 |
| California | 5–6 | 14–10 | 52 |
| Georgia Tech | 5–7 | 10–14 | 98 |
| Miami | 4–8 | 12–11 | 51 |
| Florida State | 2–9 | 7–16 | 111 |
| Wake Forest | 3–9 | 13–11 | 122 |
| SMU | 1–10 | 8–15 | 183 |
| Pittsburgh | 1–10 | 8–16 | 256 |
| Boston College | 0–12 | 4–21 | 252 |
* — Through Saturday games
Thursday’s results
No. 25 North Carolina 53, Clemson 44
Stanford 86, Boston College 65
No. 17 Duke 59, No. 6 Louisville 58
Notre Dame 80, Virginia Tech 70
Virginia 67, Miami 56
California 63, Georgia Tech 56
Wake Forest 70, SMU 65
N.C. State 83, Florida State 55
Sunday’s games
No. 6 Louisville at Syracuse, noon, ACCN Extra
N.C. State at Virginia Tech, noon, ACC Network
California at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ACCN Extra
No. 25 North Carolina at Wake Forest, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at No. 17 Duke, 2 p.m. The CW
Notre Dame at Virginia, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Miami at Florida State, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Stanford at Georgia Tech, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Boston College at Clemson, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Thursday, Feb. 12, games
SMU at No. 25 North Carolina, 6 p.m., ACC Network
Syracuse at Pittsburgh, 6 p.m., ACCN Extra
Boston College at Florida State, 6 p.m., ACCN Extra
Wake Forest at No. 6 Louisville, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Georgia Tech at Clemson, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Virginia at California, 10 p.m., ACCN Extra
Virginia Tech at Stanford, 10 p.m., ACCN Extra
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 17 Duke | 12–0 | 17–6 | 13 |
| No. 6 Louisville | 11–1 | 21–4 | 7 |
| Syracuse | 9–3 | 19–4 | 36 |
| N.C. State | 9–3 | 16–7 | 25 |
| No. 25 North Carolina | 8–3 | 19–5 | 21 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–4 | 18–6 | 43 |
| Virginia | 8–4 | 16–7 | 38 |
| Clemson | 7–5 | 16–8 | 40 |
| Notre Dame | 7–5 | 15–8 | 30 |
| Stanford | 5–6 | 16–8 | 37 |
| California | 5–6 | 14–10 | 52 |
| Georgia Tech | 5–7 | 10–14 | 98 |
| Miami | 4–8 | 12–11 | 51 |
| Florida State | 2–9 | 7–16 | 111 |
| Wake Forest | 3–9 | 13–11 | 122 |
| SMU | 1–10 | 8–15 | 183 |
| Pittsburgh | 1–10 | 8–16 | 256 |
| Boston College | 0–12 | 4–21 | 252 |
* — Through Saturday games
Thursday’s results
No. 25 North Carolina 53, Clemson 44
Stanford 86, Boston College 65
No. 17 Duke 59, No. 6 Louisville 58
Notre Dame 80, Virginia Tech 70
Virginia 67, Miami 56
California 63, Georgia Tech 56
Wake Forest 70, SMU 65
N.C. State 83, Florida State 55
Sunday’s games
No. 6 Louisville at Syracuse, noon, ACCN Extra
N.C. State at Virginia Tech, noon, ACC Network
California at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ACCN Extra
No. 25 North Carolina at Wake Forest, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at No. 17 Duke, 2 p.m. The CW
Notre Dame at Virginia, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Miami at Florida State, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Stanford at Georgia Tech, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Boston College at Clemson, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Thursday, Feb. 12, games
SMU at No. 25 North Carolina, 6 p.m., ACC Network
Syracuse at Pittsburgh, 6 p.m., ACCN Extra
Boston College at Florida State, 6 p.m., ACCN Extra
Wake Forest at No. 6 Louisville, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Georgia Tech at Clemson, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Virginia at California, 10 p.m., ACCN Extra
Virginia Tech at Stanford, 10 p.m., ACCN Extra
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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