By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina heads into the new year in position to host first- and second-round games in the NCAA women’s tournament, but still with a lot of work ahead.
While ESPN’s Charlie Creme’s latest projection has the No. 16 Tar Heels (11–3, 0–1 ACC) as a No. 4 seed, which would mean hosting, their NET ranking of 20 would translate to a low No. 5 seed. Over the years, Creme has consistently projected that UNC would earn a higher seed than the selection committee gives the Tar Heels.
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA women’s quadrant system
(Different criteria for each quadrant than those used for men’s basketball)
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 0–3; 4 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 25 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 35 or better, and road games against teams ranked 45 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 2–0; 6 games left): Home 26–55, neutral 36–65, road 46–80
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 2–0; 4 games left): Home 56–90, neutral 66–105, road 81–130
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 7–0; 3 games left): Home 91 or lower, neutral 106 or lower, road 131 or lower
Two factors working against UNC are its 0–3 record in Quad 1 games and the fact that all remaining four Quad 1 opportunities are on the road.
Carolina starts the new year with a Quad 3 noon home game on New Year’s Day against California (6–5, 0–1; NET ranking of 63).
UNC played No. 4 UCLA (11–1; 4) and No. 2 Texas (14–0; 3) tough for one half before letting those games get away. Despite not playing well, Carolina had a chance at a Quad 1 win in its ACC opener against No. 13 Louisville (12–3, 2–0; 13) before losing in overtime.
Carolina’s wins at the Cancun Challenge over Kansas State (7–7; 69) and Columbia (8–4; 70) were Quad 2 when the games were played, but have fallen to Quad 3. That leaves the Heels with only two Quad 2 wins: Fairfield (8–3; 41) in Las Vegas and South Dakota State (10–4; 47) in Cancun.
The Tar Heels’ only Quad 1 chance next month is Jan. 11 when they visit Notre Dame (9–2, 1–0; NET ranking of 16). The other three Quad 1 games are Feb. 2 at N.C. State (9–4, 2–0; 30), Feb. 15 at Duke (6–6, 1–0; 29) and Feb. 26 at Virginia (9–3, 1–0; 33).
UNC likely needs to split those four games at least to be an NCAA host.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via warrennolan.com)
NET ranking: 20
Average NET win: 199
Average NET loss: 6
NET strength of schedule: 36
Massey Ratings: 27
Torvik rankings: 12
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Tuesday games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| N.C. Central | 311 | 4 | Win |
| Elon | 216 | 4 | Win |
| (N) UCLA | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Fairfield | 41 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. A&T | 267 | 4 | Win |
| UNCG | 241 | 4 | Win |
| (N) South Dakota State | 47 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Kansas State | 69 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Columbia | 70 | 3 | Win |
| At Texas | 3 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston University | 282 | 4 | Win |
| Louisville | 13 | 1 | Loss |
| UNCW | 317 | 4 | Win |
| Charleston Southern | 335 | 4 | Win |
| Boston College | 215 | 4 | |
| California | 63 | 3 | |
| Stanford | 31 | 2 | |
| At Notre Dame | 16 | 1 | |
| Miami | 45 | 2 | |
| At Florida State | 113 | 3 | |
| At Georgia Tech | 122 | 3 | |
| Syracuse | 40 | 2 | |
| At N.C. State | 30 | 1 | |
| Clemson | 48 | 2 | |
| At Wake Forest | 119 | 3 | |
| SMU | 137 | 4 | |
| At Duke | 29 | 1 | |
| At Virginia Tech | 52 | 2 | |
| Pittsburgh | 234 | 4 | |
| At Virginia | 33 | 1 | |
| Duke | 29 | 2 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 13 Louisville | 2–0 | 12–3 | 13 |
| N.C. State | 2–0 | 9–4 | 30 |
| Syracuse | 1–0 | 11–1 | 40 |
| Stanford | 1–0 | 11–2 | 31 |
| No. 18 Notre Dame | 1–0 | 9–2 | 16 |
| Virginia | 1–0 | 9–3 | 33 |
| Duke | 1–0 | 6–6 | 29 |
| Virginia Tech | 1–1 | 11–3 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 1–1 | 11–3 | 119 |
| Clemson | 1–1 | 9–4 | 48 |
| Miami | 1–1 | 8–4 | 45 |
| No. 16 North Carolina | 0–1 | 11–3 | 20 |
| California | 0–1 | 8–5 | 63 |
| SMU | 0–1 | 7–6 | 137 |
| Pittsburgh | 0–1 | 7–7 | 234 |
| Boston College | 0–1 | 4–10 | 215 |
| Florida State | 0–2 | 5–9 | 113 |
| Georgia Tech | 0–2 | 4–9 | 122 |
* — Through Tuesday games
Saturday’s results
No. 13 Louisville 89, No. 23 Tennessee 65
Virginia 88, Winthrop 53
Florida State 77, South Carolina State 36
Duke 76, Belmont 46
Sunday’s results
No. 16 North Carolina 93, Charleston Southern 74
Virginia Tech 79, Radford 47
N.C. State 68, Davidson 49
Miami 85, Kennesaw State 55
Duquesne 84, Pittsburgh 69
Clemson 84, North Florida 62
SMU 74, Southern 62
Stanford 64, Oregon 53
No. 18 Notre Dame 110, Bellarmine 38
No. 17 USC 61, California 57
Monday’s result
Wake Forest 78, Gardner-Webb 66
Sunday’s games
Wofford at Georgia Tech, noon, ACC Network
Stetson at Miami, 2 p.m., ACC Network
Clemson at Chicago State, 3 p.m.
Duke at Syracuse, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Cornell at Stanford, 4 p.m., ACCN Extra
Cal Poly at California, 5 p.m., ACCN Extra
Monday, Dec. 29, games
Pittsburgh at No. 18 Notre Dame, 6 p.m., ACCN
SMU at Virginia, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
No. 16 North Carolina at Boston College, 8 p.m., ACC Network
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 13 Louisville | 2–0 | 12–3 | 13 |
| N.C. State | 2–0 | 9–4 | 30 |
| Syracuse | 1–0 | 11–1 | 40 |
| Stanford | 1–0 | 11–2 | 31 |
| No. 18 Notre Dame | 1–0 | 9–2 | 16 |
| Virginia | 1–0 | 9–3 | 33 |
| Duke | 1–0 | 6–6 | 29 |
| Virginia Tech | 1–1 | 11–3 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 1–1 | 11–3 | 119 |
| Clemson | 1–1 | 9–4 | 48 |
| Miami | 1–1 | 8–4 | 45 |
| No. 16 North Carolina | 0–1 | 11–3 | 20 |
| California | 0–1 | 8–5 | 63 |
| SMU | 0–1 | 7–6 | 137 |
| Pittsburgh | 0–1 | 7–7 | 234 |
| Boston College | 0–1 | 4–10 | 215 |
| Florida State | 0–2 | 5–9 | 113 |
| Georgia Tech | 0–2 | 4–9 | 122 |
* — Through Tuesday games
Saturday’s results
No. 13 Louisville 89, No. 23 Tennessee 65
Virginia 88, Winthrop 53
Florida State 77, South Carolina State 36
Duke 76, Belmont 46
Sunday’s results
No. 16 North Carolina 93, Charleston Southern 74
Virginia Tech 79, Radford 47
N.C. State 68, Davidson 49
Miami 85, Kennesaw State 55
Duquesne 84, Pittsburgh 69
Clemson 84, North Florida 62
SMU 74, Southern 62
Stanford 64, Oregon 53
No. 18 Notre Dame 110, Bellarmine 38
No. 17 USC 61, California 57
Monday’s result
Wake Forest 78, Gardner-Webb 66
Sunday’s games
Wofford at Georgia Tech, noon, ACC Network
Stetson at Miami, 2 p.m., ACC Network
Clemson at Chicago State, 3 p.m.
Duke at Syracuse, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Cornell at Stanford, 4 p.m., ACCN Extra
Cal Poly at California, 5 p.m., ACCN Extra
Monday, Dec. 29, games
Pittsburgh at No. 18 Notre Dame, 6 p.m., ACCN
SMU at Virginia, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
No. 16 North Carolina at Boston College, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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