By R.L. Bynum
PALO ALTO, Calif. — The good NCAA tournament résumé that North Carolina built up during nonconference play is rapidly falling apart.
After the No. 14 Tar Heels fell to 3–3 in Quad 1 games with their 95–90 loss Wednesday night at Stanford, they fell eight spots in the NET rankings to a season-low 30. That’s the lowest since UNC was 32 at the end of last season, when it barely slipped into the tournament field.
The average NET ranking of teams defeating the Tar Heels dropped from 19 to 37 after Wednesday’s loss.
UNC (14–3, 2–2 ACC) still has a chance to leave Northern California with a Quad 1 victory if the Heels can rebound at 4 p.m. Saturday with a victory at Cal (13–5, 1–4; NET ranking of 69).
Getting a win in Berkeley would be huge for UNC since the only other Quad 1 chance in January will be on Jan. 24 with a visit to No. 16 Virginia (15–2, 4–0; NET ranking of 14).
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 3–3; 9 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 3 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 4–0; 2 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
Carolina has nine more games currently classified as Quad 1.
The consensus of 68 bracket projections made before the loss to Stanford that are listed on Bracket Matrix projected UNC to be the lowest of the No. 4 seeds, with ESPN listing the Tar Heels as a No. 5 seed.
The chances of being sent to Greenville, S.C., for first- and second-round games are becoming remote and even getting a double-bye in the ACC tournament will no longer be easy.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 30
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (current)
Average opponent NET: 140
Average NET win: 162
Average NET loss: 37
NET strength of schedule: 74
KenPom: 35
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 37
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 29
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Wednesday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 235 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 17 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 263 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 333 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 205 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 140 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 13 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 34 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 127 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 257 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 125 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 41 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 296 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 134 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 59 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 65 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 69 | 1 | |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 72 | 2 | |
| J24 | At Virginia | 14 | 1 | |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 164 | 3 | |
| F2 | Syracuse | 60 | 2 | |
| F7 | Duke | 3 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 31 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 101 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 29 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 67 | 1 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 21 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 26 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 3 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 6 Duke | 5–0 | 16–1 | 3 |
| No. 22 Clemson | 5–0 | 15–3 | 26 |
| Miami | 4–0 | 15–2 | 31 |
| No. 16 Virginia | 4–1 | 15–2 | 14 |
| N.C. State | 3–1 | 12–5 | 29 |
| Syracuse | 3–1 | 12–5 | 60 |
| Stanford | 3–2 | 14–4 | 65 |
| No. 14 North Carolina | 2–2 | 14–3 | 30 |
| No. 24 SMU | 2–2 | 13–4 | 32 |
| Virginia Tech | 2–3 | 13–5 | 55 |
| No. 20 Louisville | 2–3 | 12–5 | 21 |
| Notre Dame | 1–3 | 10–7 | 72 |
| Wake Forest | 1–3 | 10–7 | 59 |
| Pittsburgh | 1–3 | 8–9 | 101 |
| California | 1–4 | 13–5 | 69 |
| Georgia Tech | 1–4 | 10–8 | 164 |
| Boston College | 0–4 | 7–10 | 181 |
| Florida State | 0–4 | 7–10 | 134 |
* — Through Wednesday games
Tuesday’s results
No. 22 Clemson 74, Boston College 50
Miami 81, Notre Dame 69
No. 16 Virginia 79, No. 20 Louisville 70
Syracuse 94, Florida State 86
Wednesday’s results
Stanford 95, No. 14 North Carolina 90
Pittsburgh 89, Georgia Tech 66
SMU 77, Virginia Tech 76
No. 6 Duke 71, California 56
Saturday’s games
No. 16 Virginia at SMU, noon, ESPN2
Notre Dame at Virginia Tech, noon, ACC Network
Georgia Tech at N.C. State, noon, The CW
Syracuse at Boston College, 2 p.m., ACC Network
Miami at No. 22 Clemson, 2:15, The CW
No. 14 North Carolina at California, 4 p.m., ACC Network
No. 6 Duke at Stanford, 6 p.m., ACC Network
Wake Forest at Florida State, 6 p.m., ESPN
No. 20 Louisville at Pittsburgh, 8 p.m., ESPN2
Tuesday’s games
N.C. State at No. 22 Clemson, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Florida State at Miami, 7 p.m., ESPNU
SMU at Wake Forest, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Wednesday, Jan. 21, games
Notre Dame at No. 14 North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Pittsburgh at Boston College, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Virginia Tech at Syracuse, 9 p.m., ACC Network
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 11 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 12 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | at California | ACCN |
| 21 | Wednesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Notre Dame | ESPN2 |
| 24 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at No. 16 Virginia | ESPN |
| 31 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at Georgia Tech | ACCN |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 6 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 22 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 6 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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