By R.L. Bynum
No. 16 North Carolina (20–5, 8–4 ACC) at N.C. State (18–8, 9–4)
When: 7 p.m. Tuesday
Where: Lenovo Center
Line: N.C. State -7½
Moneylines: UNC +275, N.C. State -350
Over/under: 158½
TV: ESPN: Kevin Brown play-by-play, Cory Alexander analyst
Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network (affiliates list; streams on the Varsity Network app); Jones Angell play-by-play, Tyler Zeller analyst
Coaches: Will Wade (264–111 in 12th season; 18–6 in first season at N.C. State) and Hubert Davis (121–50 overall and 65–28 in the ACC in fifth season, all at UNC; was 228–95 in nine seasons as a UNC assistant coach; 7–2 against N.C. State)
Series: UNC leads 166–81 (see list below), including 70–40 at N.C. State and 20–6 at the arena now called the Lenovo Center; Carolina has won 8 of the last 10 meetings, including the last two. Including NCAA tournament games, the Tar Heels are 24–6 in the arena.
Quad designation: N.C. State’s NET ranking is 29, making this the first of four remaining regular-season Quad 1 games.
Common opponents (current ranks):
— Both beat N.C. Central at home: State 114–66 on Nov. 3, UNC 97–53 on Nov. 14
— Both played No.8 Kansas at home: UNC won 87–74 on Nov. 7, State lost 77–76 in OT on Dec. 13
— Both beat Wake Forest: State 70–57 at home on Dec. 31 and 96–78 on the road Jan. 31, UNC 87–54 on Jan. 10
— Both played at No. 14Virginia: State lost 76–61 at home on Jan. 3, UNC won 85–80 on the road Jan. 24
— Both beat Florida State: UNC 79–66 at home on Dec. 30, State 113–69 on the road on Jan. 10
— Both played Georgia Tech: State lost 78–74 at home on Jan 17, UNC won 91–75 on Jan. 31
— Both beat Pittsburgh: State 81–72 on the road on Jan. 24, UNC at home 79–65 on Saturday
— Both beat Syracuse at home: State 88–68 on Jan. 27, UNC 87–77 on Feb. 2|
— Both played at SMU: UNC lost 97–83 on Jan. 3, State won 84–83 on Feb. 3
— Both lost to Miami: UNC 75–66 on the road Feb. 10, State 77–76 at home on Saturday
N.C. State resume
— 29 NET ranking
— 3–5 in Quad 1 games: wins at Clemson, SMU and Wake Forest; losses at No. 21 Louisville and Auburn, at home vs. No. 8 Kansas, No. 14 Virginia and at a neutral site vs. Texas
— 8–2 in Quad 2 games: home wins VCU, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Syracuse; road win vs. Florida State, and Pittsburgh; neutral-site wins over Boise State and Ole Miss; home loss to Miami; neutral-site loss vs. Seton Hall
— 3–0 in Quad 3 games: home wins over Liberty and UAB; road win over Boston College
— 4–1 in Quad 4 games: All at home, wins vs. UNC Asheville, UNC Greensboro, Texas Southern and N.C. Central; loss vs. Georgia Tech
— 0–3 against teams currently ranked
Usual N.C. State starting lineup
No. 1 | F | Darrion Williams (top photo) | 6–6, 225 | senior | Texas Tech transfer
— Team-high 14.2 points, 41.6 FG%, 40.3 3P%, 78.6 FT%, 4.2 rebounds; totals of 75 assists, 43 turnovers, 7 blocks, 26 steals
— Preseason ACC Player of the Year
— Played freshman season at Nevada (Mountain West Freshman of the Year), and was at Texas Tech for his sophomore (All-Big 12 Second Team) and junior (All-Big 12 First Team) seasons
— Averaged 21 points in four NCAA tournament games last season, including scoring 23 points against eventual national champion Florida
— Scored career-highs of 32 points and six 3-pointers Nov. 12 against UNC Greensboro (also scored 6 3-pointers in a 25-point game Feb. 3 at SMU)
— Has 22 career games with at least three 3-pointers (9 this season), 11 with at least four (6 this season) and five with at least five (4 this season).
— Has 14 career double-doubles, including three this season.
No. 11 | PG | Quadir Copeland | 6–6, 220 | senior | McNeese State transfer
— 13.8 points, 51.3 FG%, team-high 42.3 3P%, 77.0 FT%, 3.5 rebounds; totals of 177 assists, 69 turnovers, 46 steals
— Played freshman and sophomore seasons at Syracuse and last season at McNeese State, named All-Southland Conference Second Team.
— Scored career-high 28 points Nov. 26 at the Maui Invitational against Texas
— Has seven career double-digit assist games (4 this season), including a career-high 17 (when he had 10 rebounds and 7 points) in a win at SMU (highlights below).
— Has four career double-doubles, including one this season (the SMU game).
No. 22 | F | Ven-Allen Lubin | 6–9, 240 | senior | UNC transfer
— 13.7 points, ACC-leading 68.4 FG%, 27.3 3P%, 71.0 FT%, 7.1 rebounds; totals of 25 assists, 23 turnovers, 23 blocks, 13 steals
— Played at Notre Dame as a freshman, Vanderbilt as a sophomore and UNC as a junior, leading each team in field-goal percentage as he has done this season for the Wolfpack.
— His two best career scoring games were both at Vanderbilt: 25 points on Feb. 13, 2024, against Texas A&M and March 9, 2024, against Florida. His N.C. State high is 23 in the Maui Invitational against Texas on Nov. 26, and his UNC high was 20 against Duke in last season’s ACC tournament
— Has 15 career double-doubles, four at UNC and five at N.C. State
No. 2 | P | Paul McNeil Jr. | 6–5, 190 | sophomore
— 13.6 points, 43.3 FG%, 43.5 3P%, 81.0 FT%, 3.6 rebounds; totals of 23 assists, 12 turnovers, 11 blocks, 18 steals
— Scored career-highs of 47 points and 11 3-pointers on Dec. 17 against Texas Southern (highlights below)
— 16 career games with at least three 3-pointers (14 this season), 10 with at least four (9 this season), six with at least five (all this season) and four with at least six (all this season).
No. 5 | G | Tre Holloman | 6–2, 195 | senior | Michigan State transfer
— 10.0 points, 43.4 FG%, 43.4 3P%, 40.6 FT%, 1.8 rebounds; totals of 53 assists, 32 turnovers, 7 blocks, 22 steals
— Played first three seasons at Michigan State, and was a co-captain last season
— Scored career-high 25 points on Nov. 17 against VCU
— Has 18 games with at least three 3-pointers (8 this season), six with at least four (3 this season), and scored a career-high five for Michigan State against Alcorn State on Nov 19, 2023
More on Tar Heels
— UNC slips in AP Top 25 men’s poll after splitting two games
— Davis says that Veesaar is progressing but status unclear
— If Wilson has scaphoid fracture, his season could be in peril
— UNC holds NET position with three straight Quad 1 games ahead
—UNC’s smaller lineup created more spacing, ball movement on offense, and versatility on defense
— Short-handed Heels play faster, show needed resilience to beat Pitt
— Day of redemption for High after enduring plenty of lows
UNC’s keys to the game
Win the rebounding battle — N.C. State is 16th in the league in offensive rebounding and 12th in rebounding margin, so UNC may have a chance to end a string of three consecutive games getting outrebounded, which has happened four times in the last six games. UNC has to dominate the glass, especially on defense, to control the tempo. The Wolfpack is 13th in the ACC in rebounding (35.1 per game).
Play fast, but smart — Carolina is at its best when the pace is up, particularly without Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. The Tar Heels need to push in transition, get easy buckets, but don’t turn it into sloppy chaos with turnovers.
Take care of the ball — N.C. State, which leads the ACC in turnover margin (+3.81) and is second in steals (8.38 per game), will pressure guards and jump passing lanes. UNC can’t give away free points in a tight rivalry matchup.
Attack in the paint early — State can be tough on the perimeter, but UNC’s advantage is inside. Feed the bigs, drive to the basket, force fouls, and make the Wolfpack defend the rim.
Defend without fouling — Letting N.C. State live at the free-throw line keeps the Wolfpack in the game even if UNC is playing better. Stay disciplined on closeouts and avoid cheap fouls. Against State’s guards, the Tar Heels have to avoid over-helping on defense and avoid leaving shooters open, since the Pack leads the ACC in 3-point shooting percentage (39.4%) and ranks second in 3-pointers per game (10.6). Quadir Copeland is a talented playmaker who can make very difficult passes look routine.
Make perimeter shots when they’re there — The Pack will pack the lane. UNC doesn’t need to shoot a crazy-high percentage, but hitting open shots outside the arc is a must to stretch the defense.
N.C. State ACC ranks
| Rank | Statistic | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3P FG% | 39.4 |
| 1st | Turnover margin | +3.81 |
| 2nd | 3P/game | 10.6 |
| 2nd | Assist-to-turnover ratio | 1.81 |
| 2nd | Steals | 8.38 |
| 3rd | Scoring | 85.0 |
| 4th | FG% | 47.6 |
| 4th | FG% | 76.4% |
| 6th | Scoring margin | 10.6 |
| 7th | Assists | 16.35 |
| 11th | Defensive rebounding | 25.7 |
| 11th | Opponent rebounding | 35.2 |
| 12th | Rebounding margin | Even |
| 13th | Defensive scoring | 74.4 |
| 13th | Opponent FG% | 43.9 |
| 13th | Rebounding | 35.1 |
| 15th | Blocks | 3.23 |
| 16th | Opponent 3P FG% | 34.7 |
| 16th | Offensive rebounding | 9.4 |
Notes
— This is the first time since 1919 that the rivals won’t play in Chapel Hill.
— There was significant turnover at N.C. State with former McNeese State coach Will Wade taking over as coach. Transferring out of the program were guard Dennis Parker Jr. (to Radford), guard Bryce Heard (Dayton), guard Mike James (Vanderbilt) and guard Marcus Hill (Texas A&M). Forward Paul Mbiya switched his commitment from N.C. State to Kansas. Transfers coming to the program included forward Darrion Williams (from Texas Tech), point guard Quadir Copeland (McNeese State), forward Ven-Allen Lubin (UNC) and guard Tre Holloman (Michigan State).
— N.C. State had won six straight games before losing last week at Louisville and at home against Miami.
— It’s Lubin’s first game against UNC since transferring to N.C. State. Lubin is 2–0 in games against former schools, both with Carolina against Notre Dame, scoring 17 points in the 76–56 ACC tournament victory last season and four in a Jan. 4 win at South Bend, Ind. He was 2–2 against N.C. State, losing 85–82 (10 points) with Notre Dame on Jan. 24, 2023, and 84–78 (16 points) with Vanderbilt on Nov. 23, 2023, and winning both games with UNC last season, 97–73 (13 points) and 63–61 (4 points).
— The trajectory of the game changes dramatically depending on whether Henri Veesaar returns at center after missing the Pittsburgh game when he was sick and dealing with an Achilles issue, or if Zayden High gets his second consecutive start. This would have been a good time to still have Lubin (or Jalen Washington, now at Vanderbilt) on the roster. Coach Hubert Davis said Monday that Veesaar is making progress but that his status is uncertain.
— UNC’s top three scorers (Caleb Wilson, Veesaar and Seth Trimble) have missed games for the first time since Cole Anthony, Garrison Brooks and Brandon Robinson missed games during the 2019–20 season.
— Carolina is 12th and N.C. State 13th in turnover percentage. UNC is shooting 47.6% and N.C. State 47.8%. The Tar Heels are 24th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 44th in defensive; the Wolfpack is 21st in offensive efficiency
and 47th defensively.
— Junior forward Jarin Stevenson has 32 points in the last two games (13 at Miami and 19 vs. Pittsburgh), the first time he’s scored in double figures in consecutive games and the first time he’s led UNC in scoring.
— Veesaar leads UNC in shooting (61.5%) and 3-point percentage (44.8%), and is second in scoring (16.4 points per game), rebounding (9.0 per game) and blocks (29).
— UNC is eighth in the country in assist/turnover ratio, 11th in turnovers, 12th in turnover percentage, 24th in offensive
efficiency, 41st in assists per game, 51st in field-goal percentage and 59th in effective field-goal percentage.
— Since ACC play started on Jan. 2, Carolina is 10th in the country in offensive efficiency and 102nd in defensive efficiency. With a 6–1 record over the last seven games, UNC ranks No. 15 nationally in offensive efficiency and 42nd in defensive efficiency.
UNC season statistics
All games
ACC games
N.C. State season statistics
All games
ACC games
Statistical comparison
All games/ACC games
| Category | UNC | NCSU |
| NET ranking | 25 | 29 |
| Points per game | 81.8/82.3 | 85.0/81.6 |
| Scoring defense | 70.4/77.91 | 74.4/76.6 |
| Scoring margin | +11.4/+4.4 | +10.6/+5.0 |
| FG% | 47.6/47.7 | 47.8/46.5 |
| 3P FG % | 34.5/35.4 | 39.4/39.8 |
| 3P per game | 8.7/8.9 | 10.6/10.1 |
| FT% | 69.2/70.2 | 76.4/76.9 |
| FG% defense | 41.5/46.3 | 43.9/45.3 |
| 3FG% defense | 34.0/40.0 | 34.7/37.1 |
| Opponent 3P/game | 7.8/9.7 | 9.0/9.2 |
| Rebounds per game | 38.8/34.9 | 35.1/32.8 |
| Offensive rebounds/game | 11.0/9.9 | 9.4/8.6 |
| Rebounding margin | +4.7/+0.5 | even/-4.0 |
| Assists per game | 16.8/16.4 | 16.3/15.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 9.3/8.4 | 9.7/9.2 |
| Assist-to-turnover ratio | 1.8/2.0 | 1.7/1.7 |
| Turnovers forced/game | 9.7/9.7 | 13.5/12.8 |
KenPom comparison
| Category | UNC | NCSU |
| Overall ranking | 28 | 31 |
| Offensive efficiency | 122.4 (24) | 122.8 (21) |
| Defensive efficiency | 100.6 (44) | 101.1 (47) |
| Possession length | 16.5 (67) | 16.2 (46) |
| Effective FG% | 54.9 (48) | 56.6 (22) |
| Turnover % | 13.4 (12) | 13.6 (13) |
| Offensive rebound % | 32.1 (137) | 27.7 (280) |
| FTA/FGA | 38.3 (104) | 34.9 (193) |
| 3FGA/FGA | 41.9 (137) | 44.3 (85) |
| Assist/FG% | 58.9 (47) | 56.2 (89) |
| Strength of schedule | 61 | 36 |
Series: UNC 168, N.C. State 81
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 3 Duke | 12–1 | 23–2 | 2 |
| No. 14 Virginia | 10–2 | 22–3 | 19 |
| Clemson | 10–3 | 20–6 | 31 |
| Miami | 9–3 | 20–5 | 35 |
| N.C. State | 9–4 | 18–8 | 29 |
| No. 16 North Carolina | 8–4 | 20–5 | 25 |
| No. 21 Louisville | 8–4 | 19–6 | 12 |
| SMU | 6–6 | 17–8 | 36 |
| California | 6–7 | 18–8 | 61 |
| Virginia Tech | 6–7 | 17–9 | 58 |
| Syracuse | 6–7 | 15–11 | 69 |
| Florida State | 5–7 | 12–13 | 82 |
| Stanford | 5–8 | 16–10 | 70 |
| Wake Forest | 4–8 | 13–12 | 64 |
| Notre Dame | 3–10 | 12–14 | 87 |
| Boston College | 2–10 | 9–16 | 152 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–11 | 11–15 | 165 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–11 | 9–17 | 124 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
No. 16 North Carolina 79, Pittsburgh 65
No. 3 Duke 67, Clemson 54
Notre Dame 89, Georgia Tech 74
California 86, Boston College 75
Florida State 92, Virginia Tech 69
Syracuse 79, SMU 78
Miami 77, N.C. State 76
Wake Forest 68, Stanford 63
No. 21 Louisville 82, Baylor 71
No. 14 Virginia 70, Ohio State 66
Monday’s game
Syracuse at No. 3 Duke, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
Boston College at Florida State, 6 p.m., ACC Network
No. 16 North Carolina at N.C. State, 7 p.m., ESPN
No. 21 Louisville at SMU, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Virginia Tech at Miami, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Wednesday’s games
Clemson at Wake Forest, 7 p.m., ACC Network
No. 14 Virginia at Georgia Tech, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday’s games
Florida State at Clemson, noon, The CW
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech, noon, ACC Network
No. 16 North Carolina at Syracuse, 1 p.m., ABC
Miami at No. 14 Virginia, 2 p.m.
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 2 p.m., ACC Network
Georgia Tech at No. 21 Louisville, 2:15, The CW
Boston College at SMU, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Stanford at California, 6 p.m., ACC Network
No. 2 Michigan at No. 3 Duke, 6:30, ESPN
Monday, Feb. 23, game
No. 21 Louisville at No. 11 North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 23 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 8 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 15 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 14 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | W, 71–68 | vs. No. 3 Duke | 19–4, 7–3 |
| 10 | Tuesday | L, 75–66 | at Miami | 19–5, 7–4 |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 79–65 | vs. Pittsburgh | 20–5, 8–4 |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 21 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 3 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo via gopack.com
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