By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina is trending toward a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament two weeks from Selection Sunday after the Tar Heels’ Quad 2 victory Saturday over Virginia Tech.
UNC went up on an important metric with a double-bye in the ACC tournament still possible.
Wins above bubble (WAB) is an important factor in the tournament committee’s seeding of the field, and the Tar Heels (23–6, 11–5 ACC) moved up in that ranking from 19 to 17 after their 89–82 victory over the Hokies.
WAB measures how many (or fewer) wins a team has compared to the average “bubble team would be expected to earn against the same schedule,” and UNC’s is at +5.05, compared to +11.02 for Duke and +6.05 for Virginia.
The Tar Heels’ NET ranking stayed at 26 ahead of their final regular-season Quad 2 game at 7 p.m. Tuesday at the Smith Center against Clemson (21–8, 11–5; NET ranking of 34; WAB ranking of 31).
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings and WAB as two of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. Those rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation or WAB that matters is where they are on Selection Sunday, not when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
More on Tar Heels
— Davis’ spirited halftime message changed Heels’ mindset
—Wilson participating in individual workouts, but no contact drills
UNC finishes the regular season at No. 1 Duke (27–2, 15–1; 1, 2), which will try avenge the 71–68 loss in Chapel Hill on Feb. 7.
Here are some Tar Heels’ ACC tournament seed possibilities, which you can figure out at this website:
— No. 2 seed with wins over Clemson at Duke and two losses next week from Virginia and Miami.
— No. 3 seed with wins over Clemson and Duke and no other upsets.
— No. 4 seed with wins over Clemson and Duke, two Virginia losses, a 1–1 week for Miami and State losing to Duke but beating Stanford.
— No. 5 seed with a win over Clemson and a loss to Duke
— No. 6 seed with loss to Clemson, win over Duke and N.C. State upset of the Blue Devils.
The consensus of 106 bracket projections on Bracket Matrix made before the victory over the Hokies was that UNC would be the lowest No. 5 seed, with 40 projecting of the Tar Heels as a No. 6 seed.
Here’s a sampling of the projections, most made before Saturday’s games:
— Patrick Stevens, on oviesandgiglio.com, has Carolina as the No. 5 seed in the West Regional (San Jose, Calif.) and playing early-round games in Portland, Ore.
— Jerry Palm has UNC as a No. 5 seed in the South Regional (Houston), with early-round games in Tampa, Fla.
— On Fox Sports, Mike DeCourcy has UNC as the No. 5 seed in the Midwest Regional (Chicago).
— Blogging the Bracket projects the Tar Heels as a 5 seed in the South, playing early games in Portland, Ore.
— ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UNC as the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Regional, playing its first games in Tampa, Fla.
— CBS Sports has UNC as the No. 6 seed in the South Regional (Houston).
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UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* | WAB* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Duke | 17–1 | 29–2 | 1 | 2 |
| No. 10 Virginia | 15–3 | 27–4 | 13 | 11 |
| Miami | 13–5 | 24–7 | 32 | 28 |
| No. 19 North Carolina | 12–6 | 24–7 | 23 | 19 |
| Clemson | 12–6 | 22–9 | 36 | 33 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 11–7 | 22–9 | 14 | 25 |
| N.C. State | 10–8 | 19–12 | 35 | 45 |
| Florida State | 10–8 | 17–14 | 69 | 74 |
| California | 9–9 | 21–10 | 65 | 49 |
| Stanford | 9–9 | 20–11 | 59 | 51 |
| SMU | 8–10 | 19–12 | 39 | 50 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–10 | 19–12 | 53 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 7–11 | 16–15 | 64 | 81 |
| Syracuse | 6–12 | 15–16 | 83 | 92 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–13 | 12–19 | 109 | 146 |
| Notre Dame | 4–14 | 13–18 | 93 | 121 |
| Boston College | 4–14 | 11–20 | 159 | 217 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–16 | 11–20 | 167 | 210 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
No. 1 Duke 76, No. 19 North Carolina 61
Boston College 77, Notre Dame 69
Clemson 79, Georgia Tech 76
No. 24 Louisville 92, Miami 89
Florida State 92, SMU 78
Stanford 85, N.C. State 84
Wake Forest 80, California 73
Pittsburgh 71, Syracuse 69, OT
END OF REGULAR SEASON
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday through Saturday
UNC schedule
| Date | Month/day | Opponent/event (final ranks) |
|---|---|---|
| October | Exhibitions | |
| 9 | 7 p.m. Friday, ACCN | vs. USC in Greensboro |
| 18 | 5 p.m. Sunday | vs. Indiana in Indianapolis |
| 27 | 7:30 Tuesday, ACCN Extra | vs. Charlotte |
| November | Regular season | |
| 2 | Monday | vs. Western Carolina |
| 6 | Friday | vs. Wofford |
| 10 | Tuesday | vs. Wyoming |
| 13 | Friday | vs. Georgia |
| 20 | Friday | vs. Marshall |
| 23 | Monday | vs. Monmouth |
| 27 | Friday, 7 p.m. | Dick Vitale Invitational vs. West Virginia in Charlotte |
| December | ||
| 1 | Tuesday, 7:30, ESPN2 | ACC/SEC Challenge vs. No. 13 Arkansas |
| 6 | Sunday | vs. Butler |
| 12 | Saturday afternoon | at Georgetown |
| 15 | 7 p.m. Tuesday | Tobacco Road Classic vs. N.C. State in Greensboro |
| 19 | 2:30 Saturday, CBS | CBS Sports Classic vs. Kentucky in New York |
| 21 | Monday | vs. The Citadel |
| 30 | Wednesday | vs. California |
| January | ||
| 2 | Saturday | at Boston College |
| 5 | 7 p.m. Tuesday | at Louisville |
| 9 | Saturday | vs. N.C. State |
| 13 | Wednesday | at Florida State |
| 16 | Saturday | vs. Stanford |
| 19 | Tuesday | vs. No. 17 Virginia |
| 23 | Saturday | at Syracuse |
| 26 | Tuesday | vs. SMU |
| 30 | Saturday | Nashville Hoops Showdown vs. No. 5 Illinois in Nashville, Tenn. |
| February | ||
| 2 | Tuesday | at Notre Dame |
| 6 | Saturday | vs. Georgia Tech |
| 8 | Monday, 7 p.m, ESPN | vs. Louisville |
| 13 | Saturday, 5:30, ABC | at No. 4 Duke |
| 20 | Saturday | at Wake Forest |
| 22 | Monday, 7 p.m, ESPN | vs. No. 24 Miami |
| 27 | Saturday | at Virginia Tech |
| March | ||
| 2 | Tuesday | at Pittsburgh |
| 6 | Saturday | vs. No. 4 Duke |
| 9–13 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament in Greensboro |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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