By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina appears destined for a No. 6 seed when the NCAA tournament committee reveals the bracket at 6 p.m. Sunday night.
The consensus of 120 projections listed Sunday on Bracket Matrix has No. 19 Tar Heels as the second-highest No. 6 seed, with 12 seeing the Tar Heels as a No. 5 seed and two having Carolina as a No. 7 seed. UNC has a NET ranking of 24 and a WAB ranking of 21.
Carolina is 3–3 all-time as a No. 6 seed, losing to the No. 3 seed in the second round all three previous times as a 6 seed: 85–83 to Iowa in San Antonio in 2014, 78–75 in Denver against Texas in 2004 (Roy Williams’ first season) and 92–73 in Richmond to Texas Tech in 1996.
Although the Tar Heels (24–8) might prefer to be seeded as high as possible, the path for a No. 6 seed can be easier than it is for a No. 5 seed. The highest seed that a 6 seed can face in the Sweet 16 is No. 2, while a No. 5 seed could face the region’s top seed in the regional semifinal.
As to where Carolina will play its early-round games, the consensus seems to be Oklahoma City. Other projections have UNC playing in Buffalo or Portland, Ore.
Last week, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi suggested that the Tar Heels will need “geography luck,” to get sent to Greenville, but that they would have a better chance as a No. 6 seed. His Sunday morning projection, though, has UNC playing in Oklahoma City as a 6 seed.
North Carolina heads into Selection Sunday 6–8 in Quad 1 games and 18–0 in all other games, but with back-to-back Quad 1 losses after finishing the regular season with a setback at No. 1 Duke and losing to Clemson in the ACC tournament quarterfinals.
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings and WAB as two of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings and WAB will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand today, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
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Here’s a sampling of some projections (made Sunday unless otherwise indicated):
— Patrick Stevens on oviesandgiglio.com: No. 6 seed in West Regional (San Jose); early-round games in Portland
— Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports: No. 6 seed in South Regional (Houston); no early-round destination predicted
— Field of 68 (Saturday): No. 5 seed in Midwest (Chicago); no early-round destination predicted
— CBS Sports: No. 6 seed in South Regional (Houston); no early-round destination predicted
— Jerry Palm: No. 6 in South Regional (Houston); early-round games in Oklahoma City
— Made For March: No. 6 in Midwest Regional (Chicago); early-round games in Portland
— James Fletcher III of On3: No. 6 seed in East Regional (Washington); early-round games in Oklahoma City
— Lunardi: No 6 seed in Midwest (Chicago); early-round games in Oklahoma City
— Matthew Glenesk and Erick Smith of USA Today: No. 6 seed in Midwest Regional (Chicago); early-round games in Buffalo
— Joe Rexrode of The Athletic: No. 6 seed in West Regional (San Jose); early-round games in Portland
UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| Date | Time/ scores | Month/day | Opponent/event (final ranks) | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | Exhibitions | |||
| 9 | W, 88–70 | Friday | vs. USC in Greensboro | |
| 18 | 5 p.m. | Sunday | vs. Indiana in Indianapolis | B1G+ * |
| 27 | 7:30 | Tuesday | vs. Charlotte | ACCN Extra |
| November | Regular season | |||
| 2 | 7 p.m. | Monday | vs. Western Carolina | ACCN |
| 6 | 7 p.m. | Friday | vs. Wofford | ACCN |
| 10 | 7 p.m. | Tuesday | vs. Wyoming | ACCN |
| 13 | 7 p.m. | Friday | vs. Georgia | ESPN2 |
| 20 | 9 p.m. | Friday | vs. Marshall | ACCN |
| 23 | 7 p.m. | Monday | vs. Monmouth | ACCN |
| 27 | 7 p.m. | Friday | Dick Vitale Invitational vs. West Virginia in Charlotte | ESPN |
| December | ||||
| 1 | 7:30 | Tuesday | ACC/SEC Challenge vs. No. 13 Arkansas | ESPN |
| 6 | 3 p.m. | Sunday | vs. Butler | ESPN2 |
| 12 | Noon | Saturday | at Georgetown | Peacock |
| 15 | 7 p.m. | Tuesday | Tobacco Road Classic vs. N.C. State in Greensboro | ESPN2 |
| 19 | 2:30 | Saturday | CBS Sports Classic vs. Kentucky in New York | CBS |
| 21 | 8 p.m. | Monday | vs. The Citadel | The CW |
| 30 | 4 p.m. | Wednesday | vs. California | ACCN |
| January | ||||
| 2 | 4 p.m. | Saturday | at Boston College | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 5 | 9 p.m. | Tuesday | at Louisville | ESPN or ESPNU |
| 9 | Noon | Saturday | vs. N.C. State | ESPN2 |
| 13 | 7 p.m. | Wednesday | at Florida State | ESPN2 or ESPNU |
| 16 | 2:15 | Saturday | vs. Stanford | The CW |
| 19 | 9 p.m. | Tuesday | vs. No. 17 Virginia | ESPN |
| 23 | Noon | Saturday | at Syracuse | ESPN or 2 or U |
| 26 | 7 p.m. | Tuesday | vs. SMU | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 30 | 6 or 6:30 | Saturday | Nashville Hoops Showdown vs. No. 5 Illinois in Nashville, Tenn. | ESPN |
| February | ||||
| 2 | 7 p.m. | Tuesday | at Notre Dame | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 6 | 2:15 | Saturday | vs. Georgia Tech | The CW |
| 8 | 6 p.m. | Monday | vs. Louisville | ESPN |
| 13 | 5:30 | Saturday | at No. 4 Duke | ABC |
| 20 | 7 p.m. | Saturday | at Wake Forest | ACCN |
| 22 | 7 p.m. | Monday | vs. No. 24 Miami | ESPN |
| 27 | 7 p.m. | Saturday | at Virginia Tech | ESPN |
| March | ||||
| 2 | 9 p.m. | Tuesday | at Pittsburgh | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 6 | 6 or 6:30 | Saturday | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 9–13 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament in Greensboro |
Photo courtesy of the ACC
