By R.L. Bynum

As North Carolina’s men’s and women’s teams wait for Selection Sunday, ESPN’s bracket analysts say that both face challenges to get their preferred placements in the NCAA tournament.

During a media call on Monday, Charlie Creme, who still projects Coach Courtney Banghart’s No. 15 team (26–7, with a NET ranking of 19 and a WAB ranking of 14) as a 5 seed, said the Tar Heels haven’t done enough to earn the needed No. 4 seed to host. Other projections, however, have the Heels as a No. 4 seed.

For Coach Hubert Davis’s No. 19 team (24–7 with a NET ranking of 23 and a WAB ranking of 15), the major question revolves around how the NCAA tournament committee will account for the prolonged absence and season-ending right thumb injury to freshman star Caleb Wilson.

Joe Lunardi said the committee has already had “almost a month now of being able to evaluate North Carolina without him,” and he expects the Tar Heels to be treated accordingly.

“Without him, they’re not unlike the North Carolina women,” Lunardi said. “Just kind of off of the top four lines and in the five maybe six range, depending on how they do this week in Charlotte.”

UNC’s NET rises after loss, tracking as 5 seed with chances to boost resume in Charlotte

Have UNC’s women done enough to be NCAA tournament host?

Most bracket projections have the UNC men as a No. 5 seed, but Lunardi projects the Tar Heels as a 6 seed heading into the ACC tournament. He doesn’t see UNC getting any better than a 5 of 6 seed unless they win the ACC tournament.

Lunardi said that the teams Carolina is competing with for a No. 4 seed “have better profiles across the board. That’s the Caleb Wilson factor, I think they’ll be about a half a seed to a seed less than what they would have been if he was playing and healthy.”

The other looming question for Davis’ team is whether their seed line will align favorably enough to earn a spot in the Greenville, S.C., pod — the closest first‑weekend site to Chapel Hill.

Lunardi said geographic luck, not UNC’s record, is the bigger factor, with each site having “pod leaders” and their locations dictating where lower-seeded teams are sent.

“There’s going to be a one to four seed leading each of two foursomes in Greenville. One of them is going to be Duke,” Lunardi said.

The key for UNC is the No. 3 seed that gets paired with one of those Duke‑led foursomes. Lunardi’s latest projection has Purdue as a No. 3 seed with Greenville as its closest pod. Greenville, though, would be one of four Tar Heels’ options as a No. 6 seed.

“It really isn’t about where Carolina falls as much as it is the team that leads their pod,” he said. “If they move up to a five, they’ll almost certainly not be in Greenville … and if they drop to a seven, they’ll almost certainly not be in Greenville,” Lunardi said. “They really have to be at six and get lucky with the three [seed] having that as their closest available spot.”

Most Big Ten and Big 12 contenders for No. 3 seeds have closer primary sites, but Lunardi said those locations such as St. Louis and Buffalo may not be available when it gets down to the 3 seeds.

The outlook is clearer for the UNC women, and not in the Tar Heels’ favor, according to Creme. Despite late‑season improvement, he does not expect them to climb into the top 16 and host early‑round games in Carmichael Arena.

Creme’s view is that UNC needed to beat Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament semifinals.

“They’ve sort of been out of that mix most of the year for me, just barely out of the mix,” Creme said. “Yeah, they have played well down the stretch, but they needed another win. I think that’s what it kind of boils down to.”

The Tar Heels have won 13 of their last 15 games, including Quad 1 victories at N.C. State (20–10; NET of 25, WAB of 27) and Virginia (19–11; 36, 53) and at home against No. 8 Duke (24–8; 11, 11), which won the ACC regular-season and tournament titles.

But Creme said UNC’s résumé simply doesn’t compare favorably with the teams occupying the final hosting positions. He has West Virginia as the lowest-seeded team to host. The Mountaineers traveled to Chapel Hill last season but won the Big 12 tournament title on Sunday.

He noted that the Tar Heels’ profile lacked several common host metrics for most of the season.

“They haven’t been inside the top 16 in the NET all year,” Creme said. “And, until very recently, they really didn’t have the Quad 1 win profile that most hosts have. They have accumulated a few more of those in the last couple weeks, but they just aren’t quite there. Year to year, it’s all comparative to the teams you’re dealing with in that particular season. This year, they just don’t quite crack that 16 barrier to be able to host.”

While the Carolina men can improve their NCAA resume in Charlotte, the UNC women can only wait and hope.

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ACC tournament

Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday’s first round
No. 15 Pittsburgh 64, No. 10 Stanford 63
No. 11 SMU 86, No. 14 Syracuse 69
No. 13 Wake Forest 95, No. 12 Virginia Tech 89, OT
Wednesday’s second round
No. 7 N.C. State 98, Pittsburgh 88
No. 6 (No. 24 ranked) Louisville 62, SMU 58
No. 8 Florida State 95, No. 9 California 89
No. 5 Clemson 71, Wake Forest 62
Thursday’s quarterfinals
No. 2 (No. 10 ranked) Virginia 81, N.C. State 74
No. 3 Miami 78, Louisville 73
No. 1 (No. 1 ranked) Duke 80, Florida State 79
Clemson 80, No. 4 (No. 19 ranked) North Carolina 79
Friday’s semifinals
Virginia 84, Miami 62
Duke 73, Clemson 61
Saturday’s championship
Duke 74, Virginia 70

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Date	Month/day	Scores	Opponent/event (current ranks)	Record
	October
24	Friday	L, 78–76	vs. BYU in SLC	Exhib.
29	Wednesday	W, 95–53	vs. Winston-Salem St.	Exhib.
	November
3	Monday	W, 94–54	vs. Central Arkansas	1–0
7	Friday	W, 87–74	vs. No. 17 Kansas	2–0
11	Tuesday	W, 89–74	vs. Radford	3–0
14	Friday	W, 97–53	vs. N.C. Central	4–0
18	Tuesday	W, 73–61	vs. Navy	5–0
			Fort Myers Tip-Off
25	Tuesday	W, 85–70	vs. St. Bonaventure	6–0
27	Thursday	L, 74–58	vs. No. 11 Michigan State	6–1
	December		ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge
2	Tuesday	W, 67–64	at Kentucky	7–1
			—————————
7	Sunday	W, 81–61	vs. Georgetown	8–1
13	Saturday	W, 80–62	vs. USC Upstate	9–1
16	Tuesday	W, 77–58	vs. ETSU	10–1
			CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta
20	Saturday	W, 71–70	vs. Ohio State	11–1
			—————————
22	Monday	W, 99–51	vs. East Carolina	12–1
30	Tuesday	W, 79–66	vs. Florida State	13–1, 1–0 ACC
	January
3	Saturday	L, 97–83	at SMU	13–2, 1–1
10	Saturday	W, 87–84	vs. Wake Forest	14–2, 2–1
14	Wednesday	L, 95–90	at Stanford	14–3, 2–2
17	Saturday	L, 84–78	at California	14–4, 2–3
21	Wednesday	W, 91–69	vs. Notre Dame	15–4, 3–3
24	Saturday	W, 85–80	at No. 9 Virginia	16–4, 4–3
31	Saturday	W, 91–75	at Georgia Tech	17–4, 5–3
	February
2	Monday	W, 87–77	vs. Syracuse	18–4, 6–3
7	Saturday	W, 71–68	vs. No. 1 Duke	19–4, 7–3
10	Tuesday	L, 75–66	at No. 25 Miami	19–5, 7–4
14	Saturday	W, 79–65	vs. Pittsburgh	20–5, 8–4
17	Tuesday	L, 82–58	at N.C. State	20–6, 8–5
21	Saturday	W, 77–64	at Syracuse	21–6, 9–5
23	Monday	W, 77–74	vs. Louisville	22–6, 10–5
28	Saturday	W, 89–82	vs. Virginia Tech	23–6, 11–5
	March
3	Tuesday	W, 67–63	vs. Clemson	24–6, 12–5
7	Saturday	L, 76–61	at No. 1 Duke	24–7, 12–6
10–14	Tues.-Sat.	ACC tournament	Spectrum Center, Charlotte
12	Thursday	L, 80–79	Quarterfinals: vs. Clemson	24–8
		NCAA tournament
19	Thursday	L, 82–78, OT	First round: vs. VCU in Greenville, S.C.	24–9

Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics