By R.L. Bynum
No. 15 North Carolina will have to wait until next Sunday to find out if Coach Courtney Banghart’s team has done enough to host early-round NCAA women’s tournament games. But the Tar Heels’ late-season surge has at least put them in the hosting conversation.
“I’ll be shocked if they’re not hosting the first two rounds,” Louisville coach Jeff Walz said of UNC (26–7) after his No. 12 Cardinals beat the Tar Heels 67–65 Saturday in the ACC tournament semifinals in Duluth, Ga. “I think they’ve shown that they deserve to be a top 16 [team]. So, there’s no doubt that they’re going to have a ton of success, I feel, in the tournament.”
UNC’s NET ranking is 19, but WAB (wins above bubble) is another metric that the tournament committee will heavily weigh, and the Tar Heels are 15th in that metric (6.19, the third-highest in the ACC).
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings and WAB as two of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings and WAB will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA women’s quadrant system
(Different criteria for each quadrant than those used for men’s basketball)
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 4–6): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 25 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 35 or better, and road games against teams ranked 45 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 9–1): Home 26–55, neutral 36–65, road 46–80
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 3–0): Home 56–90, neutral 66–105, road 81–130
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 10–0): Home 91 or lower, neutral 106 or lower, road 131 or lower
“There are so many factors at play,” Banghart said before the ACC tournament, suggesting that it will depend on which factors the committee values more. “Typically, one of the more consistent ones is how are you playing late?”
The Tar Heels have won 13 of their last 15 games, including Quad 1 victories at N.C. State (20–10; NET of 25, WAB of 27) and Virginia (19–11; 36, 53) and at home against No. 8 Duke (24–8; 11, 11), which won the ACC regular-season and tournament titles.
UNC was a host last season with a NET ranking of 20, showing that the metric is far from the only factor that the committee considers. The Tar Heels finished 14–4 in the ACC, and no league team with at least that record has been denied hosting.
Carolina is 4–6 in Quad 1 games, with the only loss in other games a 77–71 overtime Quad 2 home loss on Jan. 4 to Stanford (19–13; 44, 58). UNC’s ACC quarterfinal victory Friday over Virginia Tech (23–9; 41, 34) boosted its record in Quad 2 games to 9–1.
UNC’s combined total of Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins of 13 is tied for the eighth-most.
No. 2 UCLA’s 51-point victory over No. 7 Iowa (96–45) and the 78–61 win for No. 3 Texas over No. 4 South Carolina in league tournament championship games Sunday are a reminder of the tough early-season schedule the Tar Heels’ played. UNC faced the Bruins in Las Vegas and played at Texas in the ACC/SEC Women’s Challenge. In Cancun, Carolina beat South Dakota State, which won the Summit League tournament on Sunday.
Connor Groel of CBS Sports (Fort Worth 1 Regional), Mitchell Northam of USA Today (Sacramento 4 Regional) and College Sports Madness (a Sacramento regional) all list UNC as a host and No. 4 seed.
Her Hoops Stats (Fort Worth 2 Regional) has UNC as a No. 5 seed, in a change after having the Heels as 4 seed on Saturday.
But ESPN’s Charlie Creme, whose final UNC projection the last three seasons was higher than it received, has the Tar Heels as a No. 5 seed in the Sacramento 4 Regional, playing early-round games in Minneapolis.
Before the ACC tournament, Autumn Johnson on ncaa.com had UNC as a No. 5 seed in the Sacramento 4 regional (with no early-round games location predicted).
Subscribe to read Tar Heel Tribune ad-free
Subscribe for a cleaner, smoother reading experience without the flashing banners, slow-loading elements, or those especially annoying pop‑up ads that interrupt the flow of the story. You’ll also get the first version of each story emailed to you. The only ads you’ll see are static, non-intrusive ads for UNC‑related books, and there are none currently on the site.
UNC’s NCAA resume
NET ranking: 19
WAB ranking: 15 (6.17)
Average NET win: 103
Average NET loss: 27
NET strength of schedule: 44
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| N.C. Central | 316 | 4 | Win |
| Elon | 211 | 4 | Win |
| (N) UCLA | 2 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Fairfield | 53 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. A&T | 258 | 4 | Win |
| UNCG | 276 | 4 | Win |
| (N) South Dakota State | 42 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Kansas State | 54 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Columbia | 58 | 2 | Win |
| At Texas | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston University | 287 | 4 | Win |
| Louisville | 12 | 1 | Loss |
| UNCW | 329 | 4 | Win |
| Charleston Southern | 331 | 4 | Win |
| Boston College | 245 | 4 | Win |
| California | 52 | 2 | Win |
| Stanford | 44 | 2 | Loss |
| At Notre Dame | 21 | 1 | Loss |
| Miami | 57 | 3 | Win |
| At Florida State | 108 | 3 | Win |
| At Georgia Tech | 75 | 2 | Win |
| Syracuse | 39 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. State | 25 | 1 | Win |
| Clemson | 40 | 2 | Win |
| At Wake Forest | 129 | 3 | Win |
| SMU | 221 | 4 | Win |
| At Duke | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| At Virginia Tech | 41 | 2 | Win |
| Pittsburgh | 234 | 4 | Win |
| At Virginia | 36 | 1 | Win |
| Duke | 11 | 1 | Win |
| (N) Virginia Tech | 41 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Louisville | 12 | 1 | Loss |
Photo courtesy of the ACC
1 Comment