By R.L. Bynum

North Carolina (4–2, 4–2 ACC) at Duke (2–5, 1–5 ACC)
Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham
When: Noon
Where to watch: ESPN2
TV announcers: Roy Philpott (play by play), Kelly Stouffer (analyst) and Alex Chappell (sideline reporter)
Line: UNC -11.5
Over/under: 63
Last season’s meeting: UNC won 20–17 in Chapel Hill.

Last week: Carolina lost at Virginia 44–41 and Duke won at home against Charlotte 53–10. The 49ers on Friday postponed their scheduled Saturday game with Middle Tennessee because of COVID-19 issues.
Coaches’ records in rivalry: UNC’s Mack Brown is 9-2 and Duke’s David Cutcliffe is 5-7.
Series record: UNC leads 62–40–4 according to Carolina, 61–41–4 according to Duke.and 61–40–4 according to the ACC. Both teams stayed home in 1889 because they both believed they were the home team. Both claim the victory that year by forfeit and the ACC doesn’t give either a victory. The Tar Heels haven’t beaten Duke in consecutive seasons since 2014 and 2015.
Series record in Durham: UNC leads 29–19–2, according to the ACC. Duke has won three of the last four meetings at Wade Stadium, including the last two in 2016 and 2018.

Duke’s Chris Rumph, right, pursuing Charlotte’s Micaleous Elder on Saturday, is tied for the ACC lead with 7.5 sacks with teammate Victor Dimukeje.

Key matchup to watch:
Duke defensive ends Victor Dimukeje and Chris Rumph vs. UNC’s offensive line

Dimukeje

Victor Dimukeje, a 6–3, 265-pound senior, has 21.5 career sacks and needs one more to break the school career record (22). He and fellow defensive end Chris Rumph, a 6–4, 235-pound redshirt junior, each have 7.5 sacks per game and are tied for the ACC lead. (Carolina’s leader is Tomari Fox with four.) Carolina is 90th in the country in sacks allows with 19.

Will UNC’s offensive line give quarterback Sam Howell enough time to throw? Carolina tackles Asim Richards and Jordan Tucker and tight end Garrett Walston will have to be effective in blocking the talented pair of Blue Devil defensive ends. If not, Howell will have to make quick decisions. According to Pro Football Focus, his pass completion percentage falls from 76.5% to 53.4% when he keeps the ball longer than 2.5 seconds.

Key statistic: Turnovers
The Blue Devils have committed more turnovers than any team in the country with 23 (tied for second are Georgia Tech and Mississippi State with 19 each). That breaks down to 10 fumbles lost and 13 interceptions. Quarterback Chase Brice, a transfer from Clemson, has 11 of those interceptions. Duke’s turnover margin of -1.43 per game is 103rd in the country. Conversely, UNC is tied for 50th in the country in forced turnovers with only seven (1 forced fumble and six interceptions.) Carolina is even on turnover margin, tied for 55th in the country.

Depth charts

 

Matchup by the numbers

UNC Common opponents Duke
Won 26–22* Boston College Lost 26–6
Lost 44–41* Virginia Lost 38–20*
Won 56–45 Virginia Tech Lost 38–31
Won 31–6 Syracuse Won 38–25*
Won 48–21 N.C. State Lost 31–20*
* — road game
UNC Per game statistics Duke
38.3 (2nd in ACC) Scoring offense 25.9 (11th)
28.2 (7th) Scoring defense 29.0 (8th)
532.0 (1st) Total offense 402.0 (10th)
382.0 (4th) Total defense 393.0 (7th)
223.0 (3rd) Rushing offense 167.1 (10th)
142.2 (5th) Rushing defense 155.1 (7th)
309.0 (2nd) Pass offense 234.3 (7th)
239.8 (8th) Pass defense 239.9 (7th)
176.8 (1st) Pass efficiency 108.2 (13th)
123.5 (5th) Pass defense efficiency 127.9 (7th)
48.5% (3rd) 3rd-down conversions 40.6% (7th)
0 (9th) Turnover margin -10 (14th)
Individual statistical leaders
North Carolina Passing
Sam Howell 176.85 rating, 118–176–4, 1,846 yards, 14 TDs, 307.7 yards per game
Jace Ruder 167.20 rating 1–1–0, 8 yards, 0 TDs, 8 yards per game
Rushing
Michael Carter 83–659, 3 TDs, 108.0 yards per game
Javonte Williams 95–632, 11 TDs, 102.7 yards per game
Receiving
Dyami Brown 35–641, 6 TDs, 106.8 yards per game
Dazz Newsome 18–209, 1 TD, 34.8 yards per game
Michael Carter 14–128, 0 TDs, 21.3 yards per game
Defense
Chazz Surratt 24 tackles, 18 assists, 4 sacks, hurried QBs 5 times
Jeremiah Gemmel 23 tackles, 16 assists, 1 sack, hurried QBs 4 times
Don Chapman 28 tackles, 8 assists, 2 sacks
Tomari Fox 17 tackles, 18 assists, 4 sacks, hurried QB once
Duke Passing
Chase Brice 108.80 rating, 136–247–11, 1,567 yards, 7 TDs, 223.9 yards per game
Gunnar Holmberg 94.30 rating, 3–4–1, 33 yards, 0 TDs, 11.0 yards per game
Rushing
Deon Jackson 118–571, 4 TDs, 78.1 yards per game
Mataeo Durant 71–468, 5 TDs, 65.7 yards per game
Receiving
Jake Bobo 22–260, 1 TD, 37.1 yards per game
Noah Gray 25–244, 2 TDs, 35.9 yards per game
Jalon Calhoun 21-223, 2 TDs, 31.9 yards per game
Defense
Shaka Heyward 32 tackles, 26 assists, 2 sacks
Marquis Waters 29 tackles, 11 assists, 1 sack
Chris Rumph 15 tackles, 20 assists, 7.5 sacks, hurried QBs 4 times
Victor Dimukeje 14 tackles, 13 assists, 7.5 sacks, hurried QBs 4 times
Pool photos by Jaylynn Nash

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