By R.L. Bynum

North Carolina figured to need at least three wins in Greensboro to secure an NCAA tournament berth and, after getting only one, the Tar Heels are firmly on the bubble that is likely about to burst.

Two prominent bracket projections — from Joe Lunardi on ESPN and Jerry Palm on CBS — list the Tar Heels as the fifth team out of the field. Both list Clemson as one of the teams ahead of them but still not in the field.

Lunardi put it bluntly in a Friday media availability.

“They have no chance, at large or otherwise,” Lunardi said. “I don’t say that joyfully. But, the truth of the matter is that if it wasn’t for the fact that it says North Carolina on their jerseys, we wouldn’t be having the conversation. This is really an epic failure of both expectations and performance in the bracketology era.”

The resume for Carolina (20–13) after its 68–49 loss to Virginia in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals Thursday, despite 24 points from junior guard RJ Davis, is dotted with close losses and missed chances at Quad 1 wins.

Carolina is 47th in the NET rankings and N.C. State is 45th. Why does Lunardi see the Wolfpack as a No. 10 or No. 11 seed while says he doesn’t see the Tar Heels in the field?

“These comparisons to the Tar Heels are a false narrative for everyone,” Lunardi said. “North Carolina doesn’t have a case in any way, shape or form. They have had as many opportunities as any high-level team in the country and lost consistently.”

The Wolfpack has wins over Miami and Duke while UNC lost to the Hurricanes and got swept by the Blue Devils.

If Carolina heads to the NIT, it could be a No. 1 seed in the 32-team field along with Clemson, should the Tigers also not make the NCAA field.

“Carolina, in my view, isn’t even going to be a one seed in the NIT,” Lunardi said.

One projection has the Tar Heels playing host to Morehead State in the first round as a No. 1 seed. The Eagles (21–11) won the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season title but lost 65–58 to Southeast Missouri in the first round of the OVC Tournament.

After the Virginia loss, the players said they’d do whatever the team decided, but none sounded too excited about accepting an NIT bid.

The Tar Heels’ only Quad 1 win in 10 chances under the current NET rankings is their 71–63 victory on Feb. 25 in Chapel Hill over the Cavaliers. However, that Quad 1 classification of that win is precarious, considering that Virginia is 29 in the NET. It becomes Quad 2 if the Hoos fall below 30.

NCAA quadrant system

Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–9 in these games): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (6–4): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (7–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (6–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower

A Virginia (24–6) win over Clemson (23–9) in Friday’s second ACC Tournament semifinal would boost UNC’s longshot chances of making the NCAA field. The Tigers, with two Quad 4 losses, have what UNC doesn’t: At least one more chance to impress the selection committee.

UNC quad breakdown

Opponent	NET ranking	Quadrant	Result
UNCW	144	3	Win
College of Charleston	50	2	Win
Gardner-Webb	198	4	Win
James Madison	97	3	Win
Portland	163	4	Win
Iowa State	17	1	Loss
Alabama	2	1	Loss
At Indiana	30	1	Loss
At Virginia Tech	76	2	Loss
Georgia Tech	180	4	Win
The Citadel	331	4	Win
Ohio State	56	2	Win
Michigan	58	2	Win
At Pittsburgh	67	1	Loss
Wake Forest	90	3	Win
Notre Dame	186	4	Win
At Virginia	29	1	Loss
At Louisville	316	4	Win
Boston College	168	4	Win
N.C. State	45	2	Win
At Syracuse	127	2	Win
Pittsburgh	67	2	Loss
At Duke	19	1	Loss
At Wake Forest	90	2	Loss
Clemson	51	32	Win
Miami	34	2	Loss
At N.C. State	45	1	Loss
At Notre Dame	186	3	Win
Virginia	29	1	Win
At Florida State	222	4	Win
Duke	19	1	Loss
Boston College	168	3	Win
Virginia	29	1	Loss

Date	Month/day	Time/score	Opponent/event (current ranking)	Location	Record
	October
28	Friday	W, 101–40	Johnson C. Smith	Home	Exhibition
	November
7	Monday	W, 69–56	UNCW	Home	1–0
11	Friday	W, 102–86	College of Charleston	Home	2–0
15	Tuesday	W, 72–66	Gardner-Webb	Home	3–0
20	Sunday	W, 80–64	James Madison	Home	4–0
			Phil Knight Invitational
24	Thursday	W, 89–81	First round: Portland	Portland	5–0
25	Friday	L, 70–65	Semifinals: Iowa State	Portland	5–1
27	Sunday	L, 103–101, 4 OTs	Consolation: No. 1 Alabama	Portland	5–2
			ACC/Big Ten Challenge
30	Wednesday	L, 77–65	No. 21 Indiana	Bloomington, Ind.	5–3
	December
4	Sunday	L, 80–72	Virginia Tech	Blacksburg, Va.	5–4, 0–1 ACC
10	Saturday	W, 75–59	Georgia Tech	Home	6–4, 1–1 ACC
13	Tuesday	W, 100–67	The Citadel	Home	7–4
			*CBS Sports Classic*
17	Saturday	W, 89–84, OT	Ohio State	New York	8–4
			*Jumpman Invitational*
21	Wednesday	W, 80–76	Michigan	Charlotte	9–4
30	Friday	L, 76–74	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	9–5, 1–2 ACC
	January
4	Wednesday	W, 88–79	Wake Forest	Home	10–5, 2–2 ACC
7	Saturday	W, 81–64	Notre Dame	Home	11–5, 3–2 ACC
10	Tuesday	L, 65–58	No. 14 Virginia	Charlottesville	11–6, 3–3 ACC
14	Saturday	W, 80–59	Louisville	Louisville, Ky.	12–6, 4–3 ACC
17	Tuesday	W, 72–64	Boston College	Home	13–6, 5–3 ACC
21	Saturday	W, 80–69	N.C. State	Home	14–6, 6–3 ACC
24	Tuesday	W, 72–68	Syracuse	Syracuse, N.Y.	15–6, 7–3 ACC
	February
1	Wednesday	L, 65–64	Pittsburgh	Home	15–7, 7–4 ACC
4	Saturday	L, 63–57	No. 12 Duke	Durham	15–8, 7–5 ACC
7	Tuesday	L, 92–85	Wake Forest	Winston-Salem	15–9, 7–6 ACC
11	Saturday	W, 91–71	Clemson	Home	16–9, 8–6 ACC
13	Monday	L, 80–72	No. 16 Miami	Home	16–10, 8–7 ACC
19	Sunday	L, 77–69	N.C. State	Raleigh	16–11, 8–8 ACC
22	Wednesday	W, 63–59	Notre Dame	South Bend, Ind.	17–11, 9–8 ACC
25	Saturday	W, 71–63	No. 14 Virginia	Home	18–11, 10–8 ACC
27	Monday	W, 77–66	Florida State	Tallahassee, Fla.	19–11, 11–8 ACC
	March
4	Saturday	L, 62–57	No. 12 Duke	Home	19–12, 11–9 ACC
			*ACC tournament*
8	Wednesday	W, 85–61	Boston College	Greensboro	20–12
9	Thursday	L, 68–59	No. 14 Virginia	Greensboro	20–13