UNC falls in NET rankings, but there were other positive fluctuations

R.L. Bynum

By R.L. Bynum

Two losses to unranked teams in three games, even with a victory over a top-10 team in between, isn’t the recipe for improving your NCAA tournament resume.

Luckily for No. 3 North Carolina (18–5, 10–2 ACC), the Tar Heels have banked enough big wins that they only fell one spot in the NET rankings to 10th after their 80–76 Tuesday night home loss to a Clemson team (15–7, 5–6) that had dropped three of its previous five games.

It left UNC with only a one-game lead atop the ACC over Virginia (18–5, 9–3) and a 1½-game lead over Duke (16–5, 7–3), which fell 93–84 to the Tar Heels on Saturday. Most bracket projections had Carolina as the fourth No. 1 seed entering Tuesday’s games.

In other metrics, UNC is No. 3 in KPI, No. 8 in KenPom, No. 9 in ESPN’s BPI and No. 12 in Bart Torvick’s T-Rank.

Time will tell if the Tigers’ win helps turn around the perception of the ACC as a three-bid league. Clemson (4–4 in Quad 1 games) moved up six spots to 31 in the NET, meaning Tuesday’s loss becomes a Quad 1 loss if the Tigers go up one more spot.

The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.

NCAA quadrant system

Quadrant 1 (UNC was 9–3): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC was 7–4): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC was 6–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC was 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower

Wake Forest (15–7, 7–4) once again showed that the NET rewards blowout victories. The Deacons (0–3 in Quad 1 games) jumped 10 spots to 32 in the NET after its 80–51 win Tuesday over Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels’ 85–64 home win over the Deacons on Jan. 22 becomes a Quad 1 victory if they can move up two more spots.

It will be fodder for NET critics that Wake Forest went up more spots after a win over Georgia Tech than Clemson did after a road win over the No. 3-ranked team.

The Yellow Jackets fell 11 spots after Tuesday’s loss to 134, meaning that UNC’s 74–73 loss in Atlanta on Jan. 30 will fall to a Quad 3 if they drop one more spot.

Bizarrely, Duke fell two spots to 21 despite not playing on Tuesday.

After Villanova (12–10) ended its five-game losing streak with a 68–50 Sunday home win over Providence, the Wildcats are up to 45 in the NET. That easily clears the 50 threshold for a neutral-site game to be Quad 1, moving UNC’s 83–81 overtime loss on Nov. 23 from Quad 2 to Quad 1.

UNC’s NCAA resume

(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 8
Season-high: 6 (for five days in January)
Season-low: 38 (Dec. 9)
Average opponent NET: 91
Average NET win: 101
Average NET loss: 53
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 9
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 9
KPI: 5
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 9

UNC quad schedule breakdown

(Through Saturday’s games)

OpponentNET
ranking		Quad
designation		Outcome
Radford2364Win
Lehigh2674Win
UC Riverside2304Win
(N) Northern Iowa1093Win
(N) Villanova411Loss
(N) Arkansas1153Win
Tennessee71Win
Florida State963Win
(N) Connecticut21Loss
(N) Kentucky191Loss
(N) Oklahoma461Win
Charleston Southern3154Win
At Pittsburgh401Win
At Clemson351Win
At N.C. State631Win
Syracuse842Win
Louisville2174Win
At Boston College802Win
Wake Forest432Win
At Florida State962Win
At Georgia Tech1272Loss
Duke101Win
Clemson352Loss
At Miami1012Win
At Syracuse843Loss
Virginia Tech602Win
At Virginia541Win
Miami1013Win
N.C. State632Win
Notre Dame1243Win
At Duke101Win
Florida State962Win
Pittsburgh401Win
N.C. State632Loss
Quad designations are according to the current NET rankings. The only designation that matters is the designation on Selection Sunday.
DateMonth/dayScoreOpponent/event
(current ranks)		Record
October
27FridayW, 117–53vs. St. Augustine’sExhibition
November
6MondayW, 86–70vs. Radford1–0
12SundayW, 90–68vs. Lehigh2–0
17FridayW, 77–52vs. UC Riverside3–0
Battle 4 Atlantis
in the Bahamas
22WednesdayW, 91–69Northern Iowa4–0
23ThursdayL, 83–81, OTVillanova4–1
24FridayW, 87–72Arkansas5–1
ACC/SEC
Men’s Challenge
29WednesdayW, 100–92vs. No. 6 Tennessee6–1
December
2SaturdayW, 78–70vs. Florida State7–1,
1–0 ACC
Jimmy V Classic
in New York
5TuesdayL, 87–67No. 1 Connecticut7–2
CBS Sports Classic
in Atlanta
16SaturdayL, 87–83No. 12 Kentucky7–3
Jumpman Invitational
in Charlotte
20WednesdayW, 81–69Oklahoma8–3
—————————
29FridayW, 105–60vs. Charleston Southern9–3
January
2TuesdayW, 70–57at Pittsburgh10–3, 2–0 ACC
6SaturdayW, 65–55at Clemson11–3, 3–0 ACC
10WednesdayW, 67–54at N.C. State12–3, 4–0 ACC
13SaturdayW, 103–67vs. Syracuse13–3, 5–0 ACC
17WednesdayW, 86–70vs. Louisville14–3, 6–0 ACC
20SaturdayW, 76–66vs. Boston College15–3, 7–0 ACC
22MondayW, 85–64vs. Wake Forest16–3, 8–0 ACC
27SaturdayW, 75–68at Florida State17–3, 9–0 ACC
30TuesdayL, 74–73at Georgia Tech17–4, 9–1 ACC
February
3SaturdayW, 93–84vs. No. 13 Duke18–4, 10–1 ACC
6TuesdayL, 80–76vs. Clemson18–5, 10–2 ACC
10SaturdayW, 75–72at Miami19–5, 11–2 ACC
13TuesdayL, 86–79at Syracuse19–6, 11–3 ACC
17SaturdayW, 96–81vs. Virginia Tech20–6, 12–3 ACC
24SaturdayW, 54–44at Virginia21–6, 13–3 ACC
26MondayW, 75–71vs. Miami22–6, 14–3 ACC
March
2SaturdayW, 79–70vs. N.C. State23–6, 15–3 ACC
5TuesdayW, 84–51vs. Notre Dame24–6, 16–3 ACC
9SaturdayW, 84–79at No. 13 Duke25–6, 17–3 ACC
ACC tournament
Washington
14ThursdayW, 92–67Quarterfinals:
Florida State		26–6
15FridayW, 72–65Semifinals:
Pittsburgh		27–6
16SaturdayL, 84–76Final:
N.C. State		27–7
NCAA tournament
21ThursdayW, 90–62First round in Charlotte:
Wagner		28–7
23SaturdayW, 85–69Second round in Charlotte:
Michigan State		29–7
28ThursdayL, 89–87Sweet 16 in Los Angeles:
No. 19 Alabama 		29–8

Published by R.L. Bynum

Leave a comment