By R.L. Bynum
If Carolina makes a deep run in March, it will be with lockdown defense.
The No. 7 Tar Heels (19–6, 11–3 ACC) haven’t reached the level they’ll need to do that since their 10-game win streak ended with the loss at Georgia Tech on Jan. 30.
Anybody who has watched UNC in the last five games knows that their defensive performance has fallen dramatically, and the numbers back that up.
Syracuse’s 62.5% shooting was the best against UNC in nine years, only bettered by the 64.5% Pittsburgh shot in 2015.
According to Bart Torvik’s site, Carolina had the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country in the eight games before losing to the Yellow Jackets. In the games since then, that rank has plummeted to 129th (hat tip to Isaac Schade for pointing that out).
In UNC’s worst previous defensive game of the season, the Tar Heels’ offense was enough to compensate in a 100–92 home win on Nov. 29 over Tennessee since UNC had an adjusted offensive efficiency of 152.4. The second-best offensive efficiency this season of 132.0 against Syracuse wasn’t enough.
Carolina gave up a season-high 1.410 points per possession in the loss to Syracuse (topping the previous worst of 1.103 against the Vols). Its season-worst adjusted defensive efficiency of 127.6 was much worse than the 105 against the Vols.
The Tennessee game and the 93–84 home win Feb. 3 over Duke are the only times UNC has given up at least 74 points and won, with the Heels 2–6 in those games. They are 17–0 in all other games.
Nearly three weeks ago, UNC gave up 89.1 points per 100 possessions in ACC games, and now that’s up to 96.6.
Carolina’s ball-screen defense has got to get better. It’s been trending down in recent games, but Syracuse repeatedly beat the Tar Heels one-on-one off of pick-and-rolls and Carolina must make the adjustment.
With some adjustments and a return to the defense that fueled that 10-game win streak, Carolina could very well become title contenders in March.
UNC season statistics
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 9–0 | 20–1 | 2 |
| No. 20 Clemson | 8–1 | 18–4 | 31 |
| No. 18 Virginia | 7–2 | 18–3 | 18 |
| N.C. State | 7–2 | 16–6 | 26 |
| No. 14 North Carolina | 6–3 | 18–4 | 25 |
| Miami | 6–3 | 17–5 | 39 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 5–4 | 15–6 | 17 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–5 | 16–7 | 56 |
| SMU | 4–4 | 15–6 | 34 |
| California | 4–5 | 16–6 | 51 |
| Syracuse | 4–6 | 13–10 | 78 |
| Stanford | 3–6 | 14–8 | 77 |
| Florida State | 3–6 | 10–12 | 102 |
| Boston College | 2–6 | 9–12 | 152 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–7 | 11–11 | 143 |
| Notre Dame | 2–7 | 11–11 | 85 |
| Wake Forest | 2–7 | 11–11 | 70 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–7 | 9–13 | 114 |
* — Through Saturday games
Saturday’s games
No. 14 North Carolina 91, Georgia Tech 75
No. 4 Duke 72, Virginia Tech 58
N.C. State 96, Wake Forest 78
No. 20 Clemson 63, Pittsburgh 52
No. 18 Virginia 73, Boston College 66
No. 24 Louisville 88, SMU 74
California 86, Miami 81
Florida State 88, Stanford 80
Syracuse 86, Notre Dame 72
Monday’s game
No. 14 North Carolina 87, Syracuse 77
Tuesday’s games
Boston College at No. 4 Duke, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Pittsburgh at No. 18 Virginia, 9 p.m., ACC Network
N.C. State at SMU, 9 p.m, ESPN2
Wednesday’s games
Notre Dame at No. 24 Louisville, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Georgia Tech at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
No. 20 Clemson at Stanford, 10 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday’s games
Virginia Tech at N.C. State, noon, The CW
Syracuse at No. 18 Virginia, noon, ESPN
No. 24 Louisville at Wake Forest, noon, ACC Network
Miami at Boston College, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Pittsburgh, 2 p.m., The CW
Florida State at Notre Dame, 4 p.m., The CW
No. 4 Duke at No. 14 North Carolina, 6:30, ESPN
No. 20 Clemson at California, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Stanford, 8 p.m., ESPNU
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 16 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 11 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 10 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 18 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 24 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo via @UNC_Basketball
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