By R.L. Bynum
Carolina’s bracket projections are improving as it continues a stretch of seven games that can only hurt the Tar Heels’ resume with losses and minimally help them with wins.
The Tar Heels (11–6, 4–1 ACC) have won the first three of those seven for their first three-game win streak since November — all Quad 2 wins. Saturday’s 63–61 victory at N.C. State (9–7, 2–3; 107 NET) bumped up UNC one spot in the NET to 39, which is where it stood the day after Tuesday’s 82–67 home win over SMU (12–4, 3–2; 46 NET).
The consensus of 51 bracket projections has UNC as a high No. 10 seed. The day after the victory over the Mustangs, the consensus was that the Tar Heels were a No. 11 seed. After seven Wednesday projections didn’t include UNC in the field, only two now leave out the Heels.
In projections released Friday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm of CBS project UNC in the South Regional. Lunardi — who still lists UNC in the “last four byes” group — has the Tar Heels as a 10 seed, and Palm sees UNC as a 9 seed.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–6; 6 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 4–0; 1 game left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 4–0; 6 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 2–0; 2 games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
Carolina has two Quad 3 home games this week — at 7 p.m. Wednesday (ACC Network) against California (8–8, 1–4; 113 NET) and 2:15 Saturday (The CW) against Stanford (11–5, 3–2; 78 NET) — that it can’t afford to lose.
A loss in either game wouldn’t mean UNC won’t make the NCAA field but could shift the Tar Heels closer to the bubble.
The Tar Heels then finish that seven-game stretch with a Quad 2 game at Wake Forest (12–4, 4–1; 83 NET) on Jan. 21 and a Quad 4 home game against Boston College (9–7, 1–4; 215 NET) on Jan. 25.
After that, Carolina will get four consecutive Quad 1 games with the chance to polish its resume: at Pittsburgh (12–4, 3–2; 20 NET) on Jan. 28, at No. 4 Duke (14–2, 6–0; 2 NET) on Feb. 1, at home vs. Pittsburgh on Feb. 8 and at Clemson (13–4, 5–1; 41 NET) on Feb. 10.
The Panthers dropped five spots after Saturday’s 82–78 home loss to Louisville (12–5, 5–1; 36 NET). UNC’s road game against Pitt is safely Quad 1, but the home game against the Panthers could slide to Quad 2 if they fall below 30 in the NET.
Two weeks after that game against the Tigers, Carolina gets the first of only two more Quad 1 games: at Florida State (11–5, 2–3; 71 NET) on Feb. 24. The last Quad 1 chance comes March 8 on senior night against Duke.
That Quad 1 designation for the game against the Seminoles would shift to Quad 2, though, if their NET ranking falls below 75.
No. 22 UCLA (11–5) has lost three straight games to drop the Bruins’ NET ranking to 30th. But the Tar Heels’ only Quad 1 win, 76–74 over UCLA on Dec. 21 in New York, should remain Quad 1 since the Bruins’ NET ranking would have to drop below 50 for the game to become Quad 2.
La Salle (9–7; 153 NET) went up 21 spots after an 83–82 Saturday win at St. Bonaventure (14–3; 68 NET), moving UNC’s 93–67 home win on Dec. 14 over the Ramblers from a Quad 4 to a Quad 3. The Bonnies fell 10 spots.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 39
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 47 on Jan. 1
Average opponent NET: 89
Average NET win: 131
Average NET loss: 12
NET strength of schedule: 3
KenPom: 30
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 24
KPI: 38
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 40
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | 127 | 3 | Win |
| At Kansas | 8 | 1 | Loss |
| American | 263 | 4 | Win |
| At Hawai’i | 147 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Dayton | 61 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Auburn | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Michigan State | 5 | 1 | Loss |
| Alabama | 7 | 1 | Loss |
| Georgia Tech | 145 | 3 | Win |
| La Salle | 153 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Florida | 5 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) UCLA | 30 | 1 | Win |
| Campbell | 266 | 4 | Win |
| At Louisville | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| At Notre Dame | 96 | 2 | Win |
| SMU | 46 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. State | 108 | 2 | Win |
| California | 125 | 3 | |
| Stanford | 79 | 3 | |
| At Wake Forest | 80 | 2 | |
| Boston College | 223 | 4 | |
| At Pittsburgh | 27 | 1 | |
| At Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| Pittsburgh | 27 | 1 | |
| At Clemson | 38 | 1 | |
| At Syracuse | 144 | 3 | |
| N.C. State | 108 | 3 | |
| Virginia | 137 | 3 | |
| At Florida State | 71 | 1 | |
| Miami | 207 | 4 | |
| At Virginia Tech | 176 | 3 | |
| Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Date | Month/day | Time/ score | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 15 | Tuesday | W, 84–76 | at No. 19 Memphis | Exhibition |
| 27 | Sunday | W, 127–63 | vs. Johnson C. Smith | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 4 | Monday | W, 90–76 | vs. Elon | 1–0 |
| 8 | Friday | L, 92–89 | at No. 11 Kansas | 1–1 |
| 15 | Friday | W, 107–55 | vs. American | 2–1 |
| 22 | Friday | W, 85–69 | at Hawai’i | 3–1 |
| Maui Invitational | ||||
| 25 | Monday | W, 92–90 | Dayton | 4–1 |
| 26 | Tuesday | L, 85–72 | No. 2 Auburn | 4–2 |
| 27 | Wednesday | L, 94–91, OT | No. 16 Michigan State | 4–3 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 4 | Wednesday | L, 94–79 | vs. No. 5 Alabama | 4–4 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Saturday | W, 68–65 | vs. Georgia Tech | 5–4, 1–0 ACC |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 93–67 | vs. LaSalle | 6–4 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 90–84 | No. 8 Florida | 6–5 |
| CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden | ||||
| 21 | Saturday | W, 76–74 | No. 22 UCLA | 7–5 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Sunday | W, 97–81 | vs. Campbell | 8–5 |
| January | ||||
| 1 | Wednesday | L, 83–70 | at Louisville | 8–6, 1–1 |
| 4 | Saturday | W, 74–73 | at Notre Dame | 9–6, 2–1 |
| 7 | Tuesday | W, 82–67 | vs. SMU | 10–6, 3–1 |
| 11 | Saturday | W, 63–61 | at N.C. State | 11–6, 4–1 |
| 15 | Wednesday | 7 p.m. | vs. California | ACCN |
| 18 | Saturday | 2:15 | vs. Stanford | The CW |
| 21 | Tuesday | 9 p.m. | at Wake Forest | ESPN |
| 25 | Saturday | 2:15 p.m. | vs. Boston College | The CW |
| 28 | Tuesday | 9 p.m. | at Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| February | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | 6:30 p.m. | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 8 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 10 | Monday | 7 p.m. | at Clemson | ESPN |
| 15 | Saturday | 6 p.m. | at Syracuse | ESPN |
| 19 | Wednesday | 7 p.m. | vs. N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 22 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | vs. Virginia | ESPN |
| 24 | Monday | 7 p.m. | at Florida State | ESPN |
| March | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | Noon | vs. Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 4 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Virginia Tech | ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU |
| 8 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 11– 15 | Tues.–Sat. | ACC tournament Spectum Center, Charlotte |
Photo by Smith Hardy
tarheeltribune.com 