By R.L. Bynum
The ACC expanded to 18 teams for many reasons, nearly all financial, that had little to do with men’s basketball.
That will be apparent this week for North Carolina (11–6, 4–1 ACC) when California (8–8,1–4) and Stanford (11–5, 3–2) come to the Smith Center, providing Quad 3 games that, even with victories, won’t help the Tar Heels much in their pursuit of an NCAA tournament bid.
The Bears, who visit the Smith Center at 7 p.m. Wednesday (ACC Network), have made the NCAA tournament once in the last 10 years (2016) and haven’t made the round of 16 since 2013. The Cardinal, who visit UNC at 2:15 p.m. Saturday (The CW), last made the field in 2014.
In a season with No. 3 Duke the only ranked ACC team, those California schools are only bringing down the ACC, making it more difficult for league teams to earn NCAA bids. The Bracketologist website projects six league teams to make the field, which seems like a stretch.
The addition of Cal and Stanford to Carolina’s schedule means that 45% (9 of 20) of the Tar Heels’ league games are either Quad 3 (home games against Stanford, N.C. State, Cal, Virginia and Georgia Tech; road games against Syracuse and Virginia Tech) or Quad 4 (home games against Miami and Boston College).
The Bears are only at .500 because of the 132nd-toughest schedule in the country (according to KenPom). Six of their wins were Quad 4: Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly, Air Force, Sacramento State, Mercyhurst, Northwestern State and Virginia Tech.
That’s quite a contrast to Carolina’s schedule, ranked by KenPom as the toughest in the nation, which includes half of the top 10 of the current AP Top 25. In addition to two Duke games later in the season, the Tar Heels have already played No. 1 Auburn, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Florida and No. 9 Kansas.
Stanford should be the tougher opponent based on its record and an 89–81 win on Dec. 7 at Cal. But that record is deceiving, considering its schedule is even worse than Cal, rated the 193rd-toughest.
Nine of the Cardinal’s 11 wins are Quad 3 (home games vs. Grand Canyon and Virginia) or Quad 4 (home games vs. Denver, Cal State Fullerton, Northern Arizona, UC Davis, Norfolk State, Merrimack and Virginia Tech). It has a Quad 1 road win over Santa Clara and a Quad 4 home loss to Cal Poly.
Carolina’s main concern Wednesday will be to limit the number of Cal’s second shots.
“They do a really good job of getting to the free-throw line, and they shoot a really good percentage as a team,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said of the Bears, who are 27th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (36.2%) and 30th in the ratio of free-throw attempts to field-goal attempts.
“They’re also a great offensive rebounding team,” Davis said. “We gave up 16 offensive rebounds against N.C. State. That’s just not going to be sustainable. It’s not going to be a recipe for success against Cal because even their guards get to the offensive glass.”
Most other metrics for the Bears are bad: They rank 169th in effective field-goal percentage (50.9%), 176th in turnover percentage (17.5%) and 249th in defensive efficiency (109.8%).
Cal’s star is 6–7, 205-pound sophomore guard Andrei Stojakovic, a Stanford transfer who UNC pursued in the transfer portal last offseason.
The son of former NBA star Peja Stojakovic, he leads the team in scoring (20.3 points per game) and blocks (18), is tied for the team lead in assists (26), has 11 steals and pulls down 4.3 rebounds per game. He leads the ACC in scoring in league games at 24.2 points per game.
NOTES — This is the first meeting with Cal since UNC’s only loss in five meetings, a 78–71 defeat on Dec. 29, 1998, in Oakland, Calif. That was the Bill Guthridge team that lost to Weber State 76–74 in the first round of the NCAA tournament. … The Bears lost in Carmichael Auditorium 74–70 on Dec. 5, 1973, and in the Smith Center 71–47 on Nov. 22, 1997. UNC shot 70.8% in the second half of that 1997 game. … Carolina beat Cal 63–57 on March 21, 1997, in the NCAA Sweet 16 in Syracuse, the third-to-last game of Coach Dean Smith’s career. … Wes Durham, Jim Boeheim and Cory Alexander will be on the ACC Network call, with Tyler Zeller the color analyst on the Tar Heel Sports Network. … UNC moved up two spots to 35th in the NET ranking after Monday’s games, then fell back to 37th after Tuesday’s games.
UNC season statistics
California season statistics
KenPom comparison
| Category | UNC | California |
| Overall ranking | 29 | 129 |
| Offensive efficiency | 116.8 (34) | 112.5 (64) |
| Defensive efficiency | 97.5 (41) | 109.8 (249) |
| Effective FG% | 53.3 (89) | 50.9 (169) |
| Turnover % | 15.4 (49) | 17.5 (176) |
| Offensive rebound % | 27.8 (246) | 36.2 (27) |
| FTA/FGA | 37.6 (70) | 41.5 (30) |
| Strength of schedule | 1 | 132 |
Series: UNC 4, California 1
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 10–1 | 21–2 | 3 |
| No. 20 Clemson | 10–1 | 20–4 | 30 |
| No. 15 Virginia | 9–2 | 20–3 | 16 |
| N.C. State | 9–2 | 18–6 | 27 |
| No. 11 North Carolina | 7–3 | 19–4 | 24 |
| Miami | 7–3 | 18–5 | 37 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 7–4 | 17–6 | 17 |
| SMU | 5–5 | 16–7 | 34 |
| California | 5–6 | 17–7 | 60 |
| Virginia Tech | 5–6 | 16–8 | 55 |
| Florida State | 4–6 | 11–12 | 95 |
| Stanford | 4–7 | 15–9 | 70 |
| Syracuse | 4–7 | 13–11 | 68 |
| Wake Forest | 2–8 | 11–12 | 67 |
| Boston College | 2–8 | 9–14 | 148 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–9 | 11–13 | 151 |
| Notre Dame | 2–9 | 11–13 | 89 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–9 | 9–15 | 122 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
N.C. State 82, Virginia Tech 71
No. 15 Virginia 72, Syracuse 59
No. 24 Louisville 88, Wake Forest 80
Miami 74, Boston College 68
SMU 86, Pittsburgh 67
Florida State 82, Notre Dame 79
No. 11 North Carolina 71, No. 4 Duke 68
No. 20 Clemson 77, California 55
Stanford 95, Georgia Tech 72
Monday’s game
N.C. State at No. 24 Louisville, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
No. 11 North Carolina at Miami, 7 p.m., ESPN
No. 15 Virginia at Florida State, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Notre Dame at SMU, 7 p.m., ACC Network
No. 4 Duke at Pittsburgh, 9 p.m., ESPN
Wednesday’s games
Virginia Tech at No. 20 Clemson, ACC Network
California at Syracuse, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stanford at Boston College, 9 p.m., ESPNU
Saturday, Feb. 14, games
No. 20 Clemson at No. 4 Duke, noon, ESPN
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame, noon, The CW
California at Boston College, noon, ACC Network
Pittsburgh at No. 11 North Carolina, 2 p.m., ESPN
Florida State at Virginia Tech, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Syracuse, 2 p.m., The CW
No. 24 Louisville vs. Baylor in Fort Worth, Texas, 4 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2
Stanford at Wake Forest, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Miami at N.C. State, 4 p.m., ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU
No. 15 Virginia vs. Ohio State in Nashville, 8 p.m., Fox
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 22 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 9 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 10 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 15 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | W, 71–68 | vs. No. 4 Duke | 19–4, 7–3 |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 24 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo by Smith Hardy
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