By R.L. Bynum
While making the NCAA men’s tournament still is a long shot for North Carolina, the Tar Heels took the first step toward giving them a chance with their 88–82 Quad 3 victory Saturday night at Syracuse.
UNC (15–11, 8–6 ACC) will likely need to make the win over the Orange (11–15, 5–10; 149th in the NET) the start of a six-game winning streak heading to the second game against No. 3 Duke (22–3, 14–1; 2nd in NET) to have a decent chance of making the field.
After falling to a season-low 51st in the NET rankings following Monday’s 85–65 loss at No. 23 Clemson (21–5, 13–2; 26th in NET), Carolina was 50th entering Saturday’s game and is now 47th with 28 days until Selection Sunday.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 5–5; 5 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 2–0; 1 game left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–0; 1 game left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
Of the 108 projections on Bracket Matrix, only three include UNC, all as a No. 11 seed going to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.
In Friday projections, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UNC as the fourth team in his “first four out” list, while CBS’ Jerry Palm has the Tar Heels as the third team in his “next four out” list.
Carolina has two Quad 3 home games next week, facing N.C. State (10–15, 3–11; 124th in NET) at 7 p.m. Tuesday (ESPN) and Virginia (13–12, 6–8; 104th in NET) at 4 p.m. Saturday (ESPN), before traveling to Florida State (15–10, 6–8; 88th in NET) on Monday, Feb. 24, for a Quad 2 game.
After that, it’s a Quad 4 home game against Miami (6–19, 2–12; 212th in NET) on Saturday, March 1, and a Quad 3 game at Virginia Tech (11–14, 6–8; 156th in NET) on Tuesday, March 4, before the regular-season finale against Duke.
Elon slipped to 173 after its 60–59 home loss to N.C. A&T on Thursday, making Carolina’s 90–76 season-opening win briefly fall from Quad 3 to Quad 4. However, the Phoenix’s 81–70 win at UNCW on Saturday moved them up 15 spots to 158th, returning that Tar Heels win to Quad 3.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 25
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 109
Average NET win: 127
Average NET loss: 43
NET strength of schedule: 64
KenPom: 28
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 32
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Wednesday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 181 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 13 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 243 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 338 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 153 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 144 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 27 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 93 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 283 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 116 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 40 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 278 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 65 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 69 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 63 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 88 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 18 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 159 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 71 | 2 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 3 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 124 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 29 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 68 | 1 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 14 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 51 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 33 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 3 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 4 Duke | 11–1 | 22–2 | 3 |
| No. 15 Virginia | 10–2 | 21–3 | 18 |
| No. 20 Clemson | 10–2 | 20–5 | 33 |
| N.C. State | 9–3 | 18–7 | 29 |
| Miami | 8–3 | 19–5 | 37 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 8–4 | 18–6 | 13 |
| No. 11 North Carolina | 7–4 | 19–5 | 25 |
| SMU | 6–5 | 17–7 | 35 |
| Virginia Tech | 6–6 | 17–8 | 51 |
| California | 5–7 | 17–8 | 63 |
| Syracuse | 5–7 | 14–11 | 68 |
| Stanford | 5–7 | 16–9 | 69 |
| Florida State | 4–7 | 11–13 | 95 |
| Wake Forest | 3–8 | 12–12 | 67 |
| Boston College | 2–9 | 9–15 | 152 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–10 | 11–14 | 157 |
| Notre Dame | 2–10 | 11–14 | 88 |
| Pittsburgh | 2–10 | 9–16 | 123 |
* — Through Friday games
Saturday’s games
No. 20 Clemson at No. 4 Duke, noon, ESPN
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame, noon, The CW
California at Boston College, noon, ACC Network
Pittsburgh at No. 11 North Carolina, 2 p.m., ESPN
Florida State at Virginia Tech, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at Syracuse, 2 p.m., The CW
No. 24 Louisville vs. Baylor in Fort Worth, Texas, 4 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2
Stanford at Wake Forest, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Miami at N.C. State, 4 p.m., ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU
No. 15 Virginia vs. Ohio State in Nashville, 8 p.m., Fox
Monday’s game
Syracuse at No. 4 Duke, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
Boston College at Florida State, 6 p.m., ACC Network
No. 11 North Carolina at N.C. State, 7 p.m., ESPN
No. 24 Louisville at SMU, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Virginia Tech at Miami, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Wednesday’s games
No. 20 Clemson at Wake Forest, 7 p.m., ACC Network
No. 15 Virginia at Georgia Tech, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday, Feb. 21, games
Florida State at No. 20 Clemson, noon, The CW
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech, noon, ACC Network
No. 11 North Carolina at Syracuse, 1 p.m., ABC
Miami at No. 15 Virginia, 2 p.m.
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 2 p.m., ACC Network
Georgia Tech at No. 24 Louisville, 2:15, The CW
Boston College at SMU, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Stanford at California, 6 p.m., ACC Network
No. 2 Michigan at No. 4 Duke, 6:30, ESPN
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 22 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 9 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 10 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at No. 25 Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 15 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | W, 71–68 | vs. No. 4 Duke | 19–4, 7–3 |
| 10 | Tuesday | L, 75–66 | at Miami | 19–5, 7–4 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 24 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 20 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 4 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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