By R.L. Bynum
While making the NCAA men’s tournament still is a long shot for North Carolina, the Tar Heels took the first step toward giving them a chance with their 88–82 Quad 3 victory Saturday night at Syracuse.
UNC (15–11, 8–6 ACC) will likely need to make the win over the Orange (11–15, 5–10; 149th in the NET) the start of a six-game winning streak heading to the second game against No. 3 Duke (22–3, 14–1; 2nd in NET) to have a decent chance of making the field.
After falling to a season-low 51st in the NET rankings following Monday’s 85–65 loss at No. 23 Clemson (21–5, 13–2; 26th in NET), Carolina was 50th entering Saturday’s game and is now 47th with 28 days until Selection Sunday.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–10; 1 game left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0; 1 game left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 6–1; 2 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 4–0; 1 game left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
Of the 108 projections on Bracket Matrix, only three include UNC, all as a No. 11 seed going to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.
In Friday projections, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UNC as the fourth team in his “first four out” list, while CBS’ Jerry Palm has the Tar Heels as the third team in his “next four out” list.
Carolina has two Quad 3 home games next week, facing N.C. State (10–15, 3–11; 124th in NET) at 7 p.m. Tuesday (ESPN) and Virginia (13–12, 6–8; 104th in NET) at 4 p.m. Saturday (ESPN), before traveling to Florida State (15–10, 6–8; 88th in NET) on Monday, Feb. 24, for a Quad 2 game.
After that, it’s a Quad 4 home game against Miami (6–19, 2–12; 212th in NET) on Saturday, March 1, and a Quad 3 game at Virginia Tech (11–14, 6–8; 156th in NET) on Tuesday, March 4, before the regular-season finale against Duke.
Elon slipped to 173 after its 60–59 home loss to N.C. A&T on Thursday, making Carolina’s 90–76 season-opening win briefly fall from Quad 3 to Quad 4. However, the Phoenix’s 81–70 win at UNCW on Saturday moved them up 15 spots to 158th, returning that Tar Heels win to Quad 3.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 46
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 51 on Feb. 10
Average opponent NET: 91
Average NET win: 135
Average NET loss: 27
NET strength of schedule: 29
KenPom: 45
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 34
KPI: 52
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 48
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Thursday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | 155 | 3 | Win |
| At Kansas | 22 | 1 | Loss |
| American | 235 | 4 | Win |
| At Hawai’i | 196 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Dayton | 75 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Auburn | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Michigan State | 18 | 1 | Loss |
| Alabama | 6 | 1 | Loss |
| Georgia Tech | 119 | 3 | Win |
| La Salle | 229 | 4 | Win |
| (N) Florida | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) UCLA | 28 | 1 | Win |
| Campbell | 179 | 4 | Win |
| At Louisville | 27 | 1 | Loss |
| At Notre Dame | 105 | 2 | Win |
| SMU | 38 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. State | 134 | 2 | Win |
| California | 126 | 3 | Win |
| Stanford | 85 | 3 | Loss |
| At Wake Forest | 60 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston College | 208 | 4 | Win |
| At Pittsburgh | 50 | 1 | Loss |
| At Duke | 2 | 1 | Loss |
| Pittsburgh | 50 | 2 | Win |
| At Clemson | 25 | 1 | Loss |
| At Syracuse | 147 | 2 | Win |
| N.C. State | 134 | 3 | Win |
| Virginia | 103 | 3 | |
| At Florida State | 88 | 2 | |
| Miami | 207 | 4 | |
| At Virginia Tech | 166 | 3 | |
| Duke | 2 | 1 |
ACC standings
| Team | League | Overall | NET |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 3 Duke | 15–1 | 23–3 | 2 |
| No. 18 Clemson | 13–2 | 21–5 | 25 |
| No. 25 Louisville | 13–2 | 20–6 | 27 |
| SMU | 11–4 | 20–6 | 38 |
| Wake Forest | 11–4 | 19–7 | 60 |
| North Carolina | 9–6 | 16–11 | 46 |
| Stanford | 8–7 | 16–10 | 85 |
| Florida State | 7–8 | 16–10 | 88 |
| Pittsburgh | 7–8 | 16–10 | 50 |
| Georgia Tech | 7–8 | 13–13 | 119 |
| Virginia | 6–9 | 13–13 | 103 |
| Virginia Tech | 6–9 | 11–15 | 166 |
| California | 5–10 | 12–14 | 126 |
| Notre Dame | 5–10 | 11–15 | 105 |
| Syracuse | 5–11 | 11–16 | 147 |
| N.C. State | 3–12 | 10–16 | 134 |
| Boston College | 3–12 | 11–15 | 208 |
| Miami | 2–13 | 6–20 | 207 |
Wednesday’s results
North Carolina 97, N.C. State 73
SMU 97, Notre Dame 73
Florida State 74, Miami 66
Saturday’s games
Florida State at No. 25 Louisville, noon, The CW
Wake Forest at N.C. State, 2 p.m., ESPN2
Georgia Tech at Boston College, 2 p.m., ACCN
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame, 2:15, The CW
Virginia at North Carolina, 4 p.m., ESPN
No. 18 Clemson at SMU, 4 p.m., ACCN
Virginia Tech at Miami, 6 p.m., ACCN
No. 3 Duke vs. Illinois in New York, Fox
California at Stanford, 10 p.m., ESPN2
Monday’s game
North Carolina at Florida State, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
No. 3 Duke at Miami, 7 p.m., ESPN
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh, 7 p.m., ACCN
No. 25 Louisville at Virginia Tech, 9 p.m., ACCN
Wednesday’s games
Notre Dame at No. 18 Clemson, 7 p.m., ACCN
N.C. State at Syracuse, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Virginia at Wake Forest, 9 p.m., ESPNU
Boston College at Stanford, 9 p.m., ACCN
SMU at California, 11 p.m., ESPNU
| Date | Month/day | Time/ score | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 15 | Tuesday | W, 84–76 | at No. 19 Memphis | Exhibition |
| 27 | Sunday | W, 127–63 | vs. Johnson C. Smith | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 4 | Monday | W, 90–76 | vs. Elon | 1–0 |
| 8 | Friday | L, 92–89 | at No. 17 Kansas | 1–1 |
| 15 | Friday | W, 107–55 | vs. American | 2–1 |
| 22 | Friday | W, 85–69 | at Hawai’i | 3–1 |
| Maui Invitational | ||||
| 25 | Monday | W, 92–90 | Dayton | 4–1 |
| 26 | Tuesday | L, 85–72 | No. 1 Auburn | 4–2 |
| 27 | Wednesday | L, 94–91, OT | No. 11 Michigan State | 4–3 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 4 | Wednesday | L, 94–79 | vs. No. 2 Alabama | 4–4 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Saturday | W, 68–65 | vs. Georgia Tech | 5–4, 1–0 ACC |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 93–67 | vs. LaSalle | 6–4 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 90–84 | No. 3 Florida | 6–5 |
| CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden | ||||
| 21 | Saturday | W, 76–74 | UCLA | 7–5 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Sunday | W, 97–81 | vs. Campbell | 8–5 |
| January | ||||
| 1 | Wednesday | L, 83–70 | at Louisville | 8–6, 1–1 |
| 4 | Saturday | W, 74–73 | at Notre Dame | 9–6, 2–1 |
| 7 | Tuesday | W, 82–67 | vs. SMU | 10–6, 3–1 |
| 11 | Saturday | W, 63–61 | at N.C. State | 11–6, 4–1 |
| 15 | Wednesday | W, 79–53 | vs. California | 12–6, 5–1 |
| 18 | Saturday | L, 72–71 | vs. Stanford | 12–7, 5–2 |
| 21 | Tuesday | L, 67–66 | at Wake Forest | 12–8, 5–3 |
| 25 | Saturday | W, 102–96, OT | vs. Boston College | 13–8, 6–3 |
| 28 | Tuesday | L, 73–65 | at Pittsburgh | 13–9, 6–4 |
| February | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | L, 87–70 | at No. 3 Duke | 13–10, 6–5 |
| 8 | Saturday | W, 67–66 | vs. Pittsburgh | 14–10, 7–5 |
| 10 | Monday | L, 85–65 | at No. 23 Clemson | 14–11, 7–6 |
| 15 | Saturday | W, 88–82 | at Syracuse | 15–11, 8–6 |
| 19 | Wednesday | W, 97–73 | vs. N.C. State | 16–11, 9–6 |
| 22 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | vs. Virginia | ESPN2 |
| 24 | Monday | 7 p.m. | at Florida State | ESPN |
| March | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | Noon | vs. Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 4 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Virginia Tech | ESPNU |
| 8 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 3 Duke | ESPN |
| 11– 15 | Tues.–Sat. | ACC tournament Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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