By R.L. Bynum

CHAPEL HILL —  While the bubble battle for the ACC’s possible fourth NCAA tournament berth took a lousy turn Saturday for Wake Forest and Pittsburgh, it couldn’t have gone better for North Carolina three weeks from Selection Sunday.

With an 81–66 Saturday home Quad 3 victory over Virginia, the Tar Heels (17–11, 10–6 ACC) also gave themselves an outside shot at a double-bye in the ACC tournament while continuing on a possible path to a spot in the NCAA tournament.

UNC is one game back of Wake Forest (19–8, 11–5) and SMU (20–7, 11–5) for fourth place and the last double-bye spot, holding the tiebreaker with the Mustangs but losing it against the Deacs.

Despite the large victory margin, UNC’s NET ranking stayed at 45 after Saturday’s results that downgraded a Quad 3 win to Quad 4. Carolina’s last four games include one game in each quadrant, starting with Monday’s 7 p.m. Quad 2 game (ESPN) at Florida State (16–11, 7–9; 88th in NET rankings). The Seminoles lost 89–81 Saturday at Louisville and have dropped two of their last three games.

“It feels great,” UNC center Ven-Allen Lubin said. “We’re just getting started. Knowing the potential we have as a team and the belief that we have, we can continue to stack wins like this. We have the confidence moving forward and have to prepare for Monday night.”

Graduate guard RJ Davis feels the urgency of every remaining game.

“In the crunch of time where we’re at right now, the position that we put ourselves in, we’re still in control of our destiny,” he said. “We’re still in control of how we play and how we’re gonna be able to manage to pull wins out.”

While UNC has put itself in a good position, the Demon Deacons’ shot at an NCAA berth took a significant hit with an 86–73 loss at N.C. State, and the Panthers’ chances dropped with a 76–72 loss at Notre Dame. Wake Forest fell two spots in the NET to 62nd, and Pittsburgh (16–11, 7–9) dropped four places to 55th.

No. 3 Duke (24–3, 15–1; 2nd in NET rankings), No. 18 Clemson (22–5, 14–2; 22nd) and No. 25 Louisville (21–6, 14–2; 25th) appear to be locks to make the NCAA tournament, with Carolina in the mix for a possible fourth league berth.

The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.

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NCAA quadrant system

Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–10; 1 game left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0; 1 game left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 6–1; 1 game left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0; 1 game left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower

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In Friday’s bracket projections before Saturday’s action, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had UNC as the fourth team on the “First four out” list and CBS’ Jerry Palm has the Heels as the third team on his “First four out.”

In the Saturday Bracket Matrix update, only three of the 105 listed projections include UNC. One of those, however, from Bart Torvik, lists UNC as the second team out in his Sunday update.

To make the field, UNC still likely must win its next three games before the March 8 regular-season finale at the Smith Center against No. 3 Duke.

After the FSU game, UNC hosts last-place Miami (6–21, 2–14; 217th) at noon Saturday in its final Quad 4 game of the regular season before visiting Virginia Tech (11–15, 6–9; 158th) at 7 p.m. Tuesday, March 4, in its last Quad 3 game.

Elon (17–12) fell nine spots to 164th in the NET rankings after Saturday’s 79–70 home loss to William & Mary (15–11, 191st in the NET), dropping UNC’s 90–76 opening-game win from Quad 3 to Quad 4.

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UNC’s NCAA resume

(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 46
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 51 on Feb. 10
Average opponent NET: 91
Average NET win: 133
Average NET loss: 27
NET strength of schedule: 33
KenPom: 44
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 33
KPI: 53
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 49

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UNC quad schedule breakdown

(Through Saturday’s games)

Opponent	NET ranking	Quad designation	Outcome
Elon	155	3	Win
At Kansas	17	1	Loss
American	237	4	Win
At Hawai’i	215	3	Win
(N) Dayton	76	2	Win
(N) Auburn	1	1	Loss
(N) Michigan State	15	1	Loss
Alabama	6	1	Loss
Georgia Tech	128	3	Win
La Salle	227	4	Win
(N) Florida	4	1	Loss
(N) UCLA	27	1	Win
Campbell	189	4	Win
At Louisville	25	1	Loss
At Notre Dame	100	2	Win
SMU	39	2	Win
At N.C. State	118	2	Win
California	123	3	Win
Stanford	85	3	Loss
At Wake Forest	62	1	Loss
Boston College	193	4	Win
At Pittsburgh	55	1	Loss
At Duke	2	1	Loss
Pittsburgh	55	2	Win
At Clemson	22	1	Loss
At Syracuse	145	2	Win
N.C. State	118	3	Win
Virginia	102	3	Win
At Florida State	88	2
Miami	217	4
At Virginia Tech	158	3
Duke	2	1

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ACC standings

Team	League	Overall	NET
No. 3 Duke	15–1	24–3	2
No. 25 Louisville	14–2	21–6	25
No. 18 Clemson	14–2	22–5	22
SMU	11–5	20–7	39
Wake Forest	11–5	19–8	62
North Carolina	10–6	17–11	45
Stanford	8–7	16–10	85
Pittsburgh	7–9	16–11	55
Florida State	7–9	16–11	88
Georgia Tech	7–9	13–14	128
Virginia Tech	6–9	11–15	158
Virginia	6–10	13–14	102
Notre Dame	6–10	12–15	100
California	5–10	12–14	123
Syracuse	5–11	11–16	145
N.C. State	4–12	11–16	118
Boston College	4–12	12–15	193
Miami	2–13	6–20	217

Saturday’s games
North Carolina 81, Virginia 66
No. 25 Louisville 89, Florida State 81
N.C. State 85, Wake Forest 73
Boston College 69, Georgia Tech 54
Notre Dame 76, Pittsburgh 72
No. 18 Clemson 79, SMU 69
Virginia Tech 81, Miami 68
No. 3 Duke 110, Illinois 67
California at Stanford, 10 p.m., ESPN2
Monday’s game
North Carolina at Florida State, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
No. 3 Duke at Miami, 7 p.m., ESPN
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh, 7 p.m., ACCN
No. 25 Louisville at Virginia Tech, 9 p.m., ACCN
Wednesday’s games
Notre Dame at No. 18 Clemson, 7 p.m., ACCN
N.C. State at Syracuse, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Virginia at Wake Forest, 9 p.m., ESPNU
Boston College at Stanford, 9 p.m., ACCN
SMU at California, 11 p.m., ESPNU

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Date	Month/day	Time/ score	Opponent/event (current ranks)	TV/ record
	October
15	Tuesday	W, 84–76	at No. 19 Memphis	Exhibition
27	Sunday	W, 127–63	vs. Johnson C. Smith	Exhibition
	November
4	Monday	W, 90–76	vs. Elon	1–0
8	Friday	L, 92–89	at No. 17 Kansas	1–1
15	Friday	W, 107–55	vs. American	2–1
22	Friday	W, 85–69	at Hawai’i	3–1
			Maui Invitational
25	Monday	W, 92–90	Dayton	4–1
26	Tuesday	L, 85–72	No. 1 Auburn	4–2
27	Wednesday	L, 94–91, OT	No. 11 Michigan State	4–3
	December		ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge
4	Wednesday	L, 94–79	vs. No. 2 Alabama	4–4
			—————————
7	Saturday	W, 68–65	vs. Georgia Tech	5–4, 1–0 ACC
14	Saturday	W, 93–67	vs. LaSalle	6–4
			Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte
17	Tuesday	L, 90–84	No. 3 Florida	6–5
			CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden
21	Saturday	W, 76–74	UCLA	7–5
			—————————
29	Sunday	W, 97–81	vs. Campbell	8–5
	January
1	Wednesday	L, 83–70	at Louisville	8–6, 1–1
4	Saturday	W, 74–73	at Notre Dame	9–6, 2–1
7	Tuesday	W, 82–67	vs. SMU	10–6, 3–1
11	Saturday	W, 63–61	at N.C. State	11–6, 4–1
15	Wednesday	W, 79–53	vs. California	12–6, 5–1
18	Saturday	L, 72–71	vs. Stanford	12–7, 5–2
21	Tuesday	L, 67–66	at Wake Forest	12–8, 5–3
25	Saturday	W, 102–96, OT	vs. Boston College	13–8, 6–3
28	Tuesday	L, 73–65	at Pittsburgh	13–9, 6–4
	February
1	Saturday	L, 87–70	at No. 3 Duke	13–10, 6–5
8	Saturday	W, 67–66	vs. Pittsburgh	14–10, 7–5
10	Monday	L, 85–65	at No. 23 Clemson	14–11, 7–6
15	Saturday	W, 88–82	at Syracuse	15–11, 8–6
19	Wednesday	W, 97–73	vs. N.C. State	16–11, 9–6
22	Saturday	W, 81–66	vs. Virginia	17–11, 10–6
24	Monday	7 p.m.	at Florida State	ESPN
	March
1	Saturday	Noon	vs. Miami	ESPN or ESPN2
4	Tuesday	7 p.m.	at Virginia Tech	ESPNU
8	Saturday	6:30	vs. No. 3 Duke	ESPN
11– 15	Tues.–Sat.		ACC tournament Spectrum Center, Charlotte

Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics