By R.L. Bynum
With Carolina’s small margin for error, winning all six games heading into Saturday’s senior day clash in the Smith Center against No. 2 Duke was always going to be crucial to making the NCAA men’s tournament field.
Heading into Tuesday’s 7 p.m. game (ESPNU) at Virginia Tech, most projections suggest that the season-high five-game win streak for UNC (19–11, 12–6 ACC) against weak ACC competition hasn’t been convincing enough.
The Hokies (13–16, 8–10) have a NET ranking of 155, making this UNC’s final Quad 3 game of the regular season, and another game that the Tar Heels can’t afford to lose.
Carolina moved up three spots to 42nd in the NET after the 92–73 Quad 4 win over Miami (6–23, 2–16; 223rd in the NET) but slipped back to 43rd following Monday’s results. That’s possibly because Wake Forest (20–10, 12–7) slipped four spots to 72nd after the Deacons’ 93–60 loss Monday at No. 2 Duke.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 2–1; 9 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 6 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 2–0; 2 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0; 2 games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
After the Miami win, UNC appeared on 11.1% of projections on Bracket Matrix, but that is up to 18.2% (19 of 104) in the Monday update on that website.
Bill Bender of The Sporting News, in a Tuesday projection, has Carolina as the second team on his “Last four in” list, projecting the Tar Heels as the No. 11 seed.
Most other Tuesday updates still have UNC on “first four out” lists, with Jerry Palm of CBS putting UNC second, Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report having the Heels third and USA Today putting Carolina fourth on that list.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 16
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 26 (2 days)
Average opponent NET: 151
Average NET win: 166
Average NET loss: 10
NET strength of schedule: 13
KenPom: 22
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 34
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 24
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Tuesday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Arkansas | 239 | 4 | Win |
| Kansas | 13 | 1 | Win |
| Radford | 301 | 4 | Win |
| N.C. Central | 343 | 4 | Win |
| Navy | 209 | 4 | Win |
| (N) St. Bonaventure | 96 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Michigan State | 10 | 1 | Loss |
| At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| Georgetown | 121 | 3 | Win |
| USC Upstate | 201 | 4 | Win |
| ETSU | 105 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Ohio State | 49 | 1 | |
| East Carolina | 310 | 4 | |
| Florida State | 143 | 3 | |
| At SMU | 41 | 1 | |
| Wake Forest | 48 | 2 | |
| At Stanford | 109 | 2 | |
| At California | 66 | 1 | |
| Notre Dame | 67 | 2 | |
| At Virginia | 21 | 1 | |
| Georgia Tech | 191 | 3 | |
| Syracuse | 90 | 3 | |
| Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| At Miami | 33 | 1 | |
| Pittsburgh | 169 | 4 | |
| At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | |
| At Syracuse | 90 | 2 | |
| Louisville | 17 | 1 | |
| Virginia Tech | 59 | 2 | |
| Clemson | 31 | 2 | |
| At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 3 Duke | 0–0 | 11–0 | 2 |
| California | 0–0 | 10–1 | 63 |
| No. 12 North Carolina | 0–0 | 10–1 | 15 |
| No. 23 Virginia | 0–0 | 9–1 | 21 |
| Miami | 0–0 | 10–2 | 33 |
| Virginia Tech | 0–0 | 10–2 | 58 |
| No. 11 Louisville | 0–0 | 9–2 | 17 |
| SMU | 0–0 | 9–2 | 43 |
| Stanford | 0–0 | 8–2 | 98 |
| Clemson | 0–0 | 9–3 | 32 |
| Notre Dame | 0–0 | 9–3 | 65 |
| Wake Forest | 0–0 | 9–3 | 59 |
| N.C. State | 0–0 | 8–4 | 34 |
| Georgia Tech | 0–0 | 7–4 | 189 |
| Syracuse | 0–0 | 7–4 | 96 |
| Pittsburgh | 0–0 | 6–6 | 154 |
| Boston College | 0–0 | 5–6 | 177 |
| Florida State | 0–0 | 5–6 | 148 |
* — Through Wednesday games
Tuesday’s results
No. 12 North Carolina 77, East Tennessee State 58
No. 3 Duke 97, Lipscomb 73
No. 20 Tennessee 83, No. 11 Louisville 62
Dayton 97, Florida State 69
Clemson 68, South Carolina 61
Miami 98, Florida International 81
Georgia Tech 87, Marist 76
Wednesday’s results
N.C. State 108, Texas Southern 72
Pittsburgh 103, Binghamton 6
Syracuse 76, Mercyhurst 62
Wake Forest 71, Longwood 68
UT Arlington at Stanford, 10 p.m., ACCN Extra
Friday’s games
Mississippi Valley State at Florida State, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Morgan State at California, 10 p.m., ACCN Extra
Saturday’s games
Montana at No. 11 Louisville, noon, ACCN Extra
Lafayette at Georgia Tech, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Elon at Virginia Tech, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Ohio State vs. No. 12 North Carolina at CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta, 3 p.m., CBS
Northeastern at Syracuse, 4 p.m., ACCN Extra
Maryland at No. 23 Virginia, 6 p.m., ESPN
No. 3 Duke at No. 16 Texas Tech, 8 p.m., ESPN
Stanford at Colorado, 8 p.m., ESPNU
Sunday’s games
Penn State vs. Pittsburgh in Hershey, Pa., noon, Big Ten Network
Ole Miss vs. N.C. State in Greensboro, 1 p.m., ESPN
No. 13 Vanderbilt at Wake Forest, 1 p.m., The CW
Purdue Ft. Wayne at Notre Dame, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Central Arkansas at SMU, 2 p.m., ACCN Extra
Cincinnati vs. Clemson in Greenville, S.C., 3 p.m., ESPN
North Florida at Miami, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Columbia at California, 5 p.m., ACCN Extra
Monday’s games
American at Virginia, 6 p.m., ACCN Extra
Jacksonville at Florida State, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Stonehill at Syracuse, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
Fairleigh Dickinson at Boston College, 7 p.m., ACCN Extra
East Carolina at No. 12 North Carolina, 8 p.m., ACC Network
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 10 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 17 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 9 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. East Tennessee State | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | 3 p.m. | vs. Ohio State | CBS |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | 8 p.m. | vs. East Carolina | ACCN |
| 30 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Florida State | ESPN2 |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | 2:15 | at SMU | The CW |
| 10 | Saturday | 6 p.m. | vs. Wake Forest | ACCN |
| 14 | Wednesday | 9 p.m. | at Stanford | ACCN |
| 17 | Saturday | 4 p.m. | at California | ACCN |
| 21 | Wednesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Notre Dame | ESPN2 |
| 24 | Saturday | 2 or 2:30 | at No. 23 Virginia | ESPN or ESPNU |
| 31 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at Georgia Tech | ACCN |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 3 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 11 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 3 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
tarheeltribune.com 