By R.L. Bynum
If the NCAA men’s tournament selection committee sees North Carolina the way that most projections have it, the Tar Heels likely still have work to do to make the field.
There’s little doubt that an upset at 6:30 Saturday at the Smith Center (ESPN) against No. 2 Duke (27–3, 18–1 ACC; 1st in NET rankings) would be enough to put UNC (20–11, 13–6; 38th in the NET) in the field.
Short of that, one or two wins in the ACC tournament next week at Charlotte’s Spectrum Center may be needed. The Tar Heels could be anywhere from a No. 4 to a No. 6 seed in Charlotte (read about the possibilities here).
UNC’s six-game win streak has improved the Tar Heels’ NCAA chances, but only by so much considering the caliber of the competition in a down year for the ACC.
The 96–85 win Feb. 24 at Florida State (16–14, 7–12; 89th in the NET) was a Quad 2 win, the 92–73 home win March 1 over Miami (6–24, 2–17; 227th) was Quad 4 and the other four were Quad 3 victories against teams with NET rankings ranging from 102 (Virginia) to 164 (Virginia Tech).
One of the worst teams in the league, N.C. State (12–18, 5–14), gave Carolina a minor boost. With the Wolfpack’s 71–63 home victory Wednesday over Pittsburgh, their NET ranking jumped to 10 spots to 128, upgrading the Tar Heels’ 63–61 win Jan. 11 in Raleigh from a Quad 3 to a Quad 2.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–12): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 8–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–1): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
In the Friday update on the Bracket Matrix website, UNC appears on only 17.5% of the 103 projections (18), with one (Offshore Sportsbooks) listing the Tar Heels as a No. 10 seed.
The most encouraging projections for UNC are from Bart Torvick (in a Friday projection), James Fletcher III of On3 (Thursday), Andy Katz on ncaa.com (Tuesday) and Bill Bender of The Sporting News (Friday), all projecting UNC as a No. 11 seed.
Fletcher lists the Tar Heels as the fourth team on his “Last four byes” list, with Bender listing UNC second and Torvick having the Heels first. Getting a bye means not having to go to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four.
In bracket projections updated Friday, the Tar Heels appeared on several “First four out” lists. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS’s Jerry Palm each have the Tar Heels as the second team on their lists while Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports and Craig Meyer of USA Today have UNC third.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 36
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 51 on Feb. 10
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 135
Average NET loss: 23
NET strength of schedule: 42
KenPom: 33
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 25
KPI: 54
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 36
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | 184 | 4 | Win |
| At Kansas | 20 | 1 | Loss |
| American | 226 | 4 | Win |
| At Hawai’i | 223 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Dayton | 67 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Auburn | 2 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| Alabama | 6 | 1 | Loss |
| Georgia Tech | 109 | 3 | Win |
| La Salle | 214 | 4 | Win |
| (N) Florida | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) UCLA | 27 | 1 | Win |
| Campbell | 222 | 4 | Win |
| At Louisville | 23 | 1 | Loss |
| At Notre Dame | 103 | 3 | Win |
| SMU | 46 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. State | 132 | 2 | Win |
| California | 125 | 3 | Win |
| Stanford | 81 | 3 | Loss |
| At Wake Forest | 69 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston College | 202 | 4 | Win |
| At Pittsburgh | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| Pittsburgh | 61 | 2 | Win |
| At Clemson | 22 | 1 | Loss |
| At Syracuse | 133 | 2 | Win |
| N.C. State | 132 | 3 | Win |
| Virginia | 110 | 3 | Win |
| At Florida State | 90 | 2 | Win |
| Miami | 225 | 4 | Win |
| At Virginia Tech | 167 | 3 | Win |
| Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Notre Dame | 103 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Wake Forest | 69 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
ACC standings
| Team | League | Overall | NET |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 2 Duke | 19–1 | 28–3 | 1 |
| No. 14 Louisville | 18–2 | 25–6 | 25 |
| No. 11 Clemson | 18–2 | 26–5 | 22 |
| North Carolina | 13–7 | 20–12 | 38 |
| SMU | 13–7 | 22–9 | 45 |
| Wake Forest | 13–7 | 21–10 | 72 |
| Stanford | 11–9 | 19–12 | 82 |
| Georgia Tech | 10–10 | 16–15 | 108 |
| Florida State | 8–12 | 17–14 | 89 |
| Pittsburgh | 8–12 | 17–14 | 60 |
| Virginia | 8–12 | 15–16 | 102 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–12 | 13–18 | 164 |
| Notre Dame | 8–12 | 14–17 | 101 |
| Syracuse | 7–13 | 13–18 | 141 |
| California | 6–14 | 13–18 | 125 |
| N.C. State | 5–15 | 12–19 | 128 |
| Boston College | 4–16 | 12–19 | 198 |
| Miami | 3–17 | 7–24 | 227 |
Saturday’s results
No. 2 Duke 82, North Carolina 69
Miami 72, N.C. State 70
No. 14 Louisville 68, Stanford 48
Wake Forest 69, Georgia Tech 43
Florida State 76, SMU 69
Notre Dame 112, California 110, 4 OTs
Clemson 65, Virginia Tech 47
Pittsburgh 93, Boston College 67
Syracuse 84, Virginia 70
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday’s first round (ACCN)
No. 12 Notre Dame (14–17) vs. No. 13 Pittsburgh (17–14), 2 p.m.
No. 10 Virginia Tech (13–18) vs. No. 15 California (13–18), 4:30
No. 11 Florida State (17–14) vs. No. 14 Syracuse (13–18), 7 p.m.
Wednesday’s second round
No. 8 Georgia Tech (16–15) vs. No. 9 Virginia (15–16), noon, ESPN
Notre Dame-Pitt winner vs. No. 5 North Carolina (20–12), 2:30, ESPN
VT-Cal winner vs. No. 7 Stanford (19–12), 7 p.m., ESPN2/U
FSU-Syracuse winner vs. No. 6 SMU (22–9), 9:30, ESPN2/U
Thursday’s quarterfinals (ESPN/2)
Ga. Tech-Virginia winner vs. No. 1 Duke (28–3), noon
Notre Dame, Pitt or UNC vs. No. 4 Wake Forest (21–10), 2:30
VT, Cal or Stanford vs. No. 2 Louisville (25–6), 7 p.m.
FSU, Syracuse or SMU vs. No. 3 Clemson (26–5), 9:30
Friday’s semifinals (ESPN/2)
Thursday afternoon winners, 7 p.m.
Thursday evening winners, 9:30
Saturday’s championship
Semifinal winners, 8:30, ESPN
UNC nonconference schedule
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| October | |||
| 24 | Friday | TBA | vs. BYU in Salt Lake City (exhibition) |
| 29 | Wednesday | TBA | vs. Winston-Salem State (exhibition) |
| November | |||
| 3 | Monday | TBA | vs. Central Arkansas |
| 7 | Friday | TBA | vs. Kansas |
| 11 | Tuesday | TBA | vs. Radford |
| 14 | Friday | TBA | vs. N.C. Central |
| 18 | Tuesday | TBA | vs. Navy |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | |||
| 25 | Tuesday | 6 p.m. | vs. St. Bonaventure |
| 27 | Thursday | 4:30 p.m. | vs. Michigan State |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | ||
| 2 | Tuesday | TBA | at Kentucky |
| ————————— | |||
| 7 | Sunday | TBA | vs. Georgetown |
| 13 | Saturday | TBA | vs. USC Upstate |
| 16 | Tuesday | TBA | vs. East Tennessee State |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | |||
| 20 | Saturday | TBA | vs. Ohio State |
| ————————— | |||
| 22 | Monday | TBA | vs. East Carolina |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
tarheeltribune.com 