By Doc Kennedy

For the second time in three years, North Carolina finds itself in a previously uncommon place — on bubble watch for the NCAA tournament. After Saturday’s loss to Duke, the Tar Heels seem to find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble, with most bracket projections having them among the first four teams out.

There is reason for hope, however. The bubble is incredibly broad but not particularly strong this year, with the feeling that about any of 10 teams could make the tournament with little argument. Those on the bubble this year have a lot of warts, so none of them are going to rise heads and shoulders above the rest.

Here is a quick look at Carolina’s competitors on the bubble, using the criteria of the excellent Washington Post college basketball writer and resident bracketologist, Patrick Stevens, to populate the list.

While many metrics can be used to evaluate teams, for the purpose of this discussion, we will only use NET rankings, BPI (basketball power index), SOR (strength of record), and WAB (wins above bubble, or how much better you are than a team that would be right on the cut line).

First off, there is UNC (20–12, 13–7 ACC; NET: 40; BPI: 28; SOR: 43; WAB: 45). This Tar Heel Tribune story offers a statistical breakdown of where the Tar Heels stand through the end of the regular season. The 800–pound gorilla in the room remains Carolina’s 1–11 record against Quad 1 opponents.

UNC’s schedule was brutal, with six of those 11 losses against teams that will be 1 or 2 seeds in the NCAA tournament. Carolina also had the misfortune of only having two of those Quad 1 games at home (Alabama and Duke), plus the ACC’s sagging fortunes meant limited Quad 1 opportunities with only the Blue Devils giving Carolina a home Quad 1 chance in league play. UNC has no Quad 2 losses but a Quad 3 loss to Stanford is the only “bad loss” strike.

Here are the other residents of the bubble (in alphabetical order):

Boise State

22–9, 14–6 Mountain West; NET: 45; BPI: 53; SOR: 60; WAB: 56
The Broncos have a great–looking win over Clemson early in the year and another good–looking win over St. Mary’s. But Boise also has a pair of Quad 2 losses and a Quad 3 loss. And if you think the ACC is weak, the strength of conference of the MWC is half that of the ACC.

Colorado State

22–9, 16–4 Mountain West; NET: 55; BPI: 56; SOR: 58; WAB: 55
Colorado State finished the second in the Mountain West on the strength of a season-ending, seven-game win streak but only have one Quad 1 win, over Boise, to go with a pair of Quad 2 losses and a pair of Quad 3 losses.

Indiana

19–12, 10–10 Big Ten; NET: 52, BPI: 52; SOR: 47; WAB: 44
The Hoosiers went 4–12 in Quad 1 games, with wins over Big Ten champion Michigan State and Purdue. They are also undefeated in Quads 2, 3 and 4.

Nebraska

17–14, 7–13 Big Ten; NET: 57; BPI: 55; SOR: 57; WAB: 53
Nebraska’s loss to Iowa on Sunday may have dropped the Huskers off the bubble. Nebraska is 5–10 in Quad 1 games, but has a pair of Quad 2 losses and a pair of Quad 3 losses.

Ohio State

17–14, 9–11 Big Ten; NET: 36, BPI: 35; SOR: 51; WAB: 49
Ohio State is a great study in how you can’t always rely on the quadrant system. While the Buckeyes have ranked wins over Kentucky, Purdue and Maryland, their other three Quad 1 wins are over 17–14 Texas, 16–15 Penn State and 15–16 Southern Cal. Those wins boost their NET and BPI but create a discrepancy in SOR and WAB.

Oklahoma

19–12, 6–12 SEC; NET: 46; BPI: 45; SOR: 41; WAB: 35
Oklahoma was 13–0 in non-conference play with wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan, but has only gone 6–12 in the SEC with ranked wins over Missouri, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State but a Quad 3 loss to LSU. The committee will have to decide if they want to extend a bid to a team that went 6–12 in their league, even with how good the league is supposed to be this year.

Texas

17–14, 6–12 SEC; NET: 42; BPI: 36; SOR: 59; WAB: 52
The primary difference between Texas and Oklahoma is that the Longhorns’ case is almost entirely based on the perceived strength of the SEC, with ranked wins over Missouri, Texas A&M, Kentucky and Mississippi State.

Xavier

21–10; 13–7 Big East; NET: 44; BPI: 39; SOR: 40; WAB: 46
The Musketeers have a resume most like UNC: 1–8 in Quad 1 and 8–2 in Quad 2. Xavier has been sneaking into a lot of brackets while Carolina has remained on the outside, based mainly on the fact that the Musketeers have wins over three teams in the field (Marquette, UConn and Creighton) while the Tar Heels have only the win over UCLA.

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Ultimately, the NCAA Selection Committee, chaired by UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham (who will have to recuse himself for discussions on the Tar Heels), will have to make some unpalatable choices to fill out this year’s field. Will the committee select a team like UNC or Xavier with only one Quad 1 win, or will they select a team like Oklahoma that only won a third of its league games?

Of course, the best course for Carolina is to beat Duke in Charlotte on Friday, but A) that is a tall order; and B) that assumes two wins even to get the opportunities for a third shot at the Blue Devils. Without those two wins, the Tar Heels won’t even be in consideration. UNC fans need to pull for the Heels to keep winning and hope that the other teams lose and lose as early in their tournaments as possible.

Doc Kennedy is an alum, longtime UNC fan, and former high school and college basketball coach who wrote for Tar Heel Blog for years.

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ACC tournament

Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday’s first round (ACCN)
No. 12 Notre Dame (14–17) vs. No. 13 Pittsburgh (17–14), 2 p.m.
No. 10 Virginia Tech (13–18) vs. No. 15 California (13–18), 4:30
No. 11 Florida State (17–14) vs. No. 14 Syracuse (13–18), 7 p.m.
Wednesday’s second round
No. 8 Georgia Tech (16–15) vs. No. 9 Virginia (15–16), noon, ESPN
Notre Dame-Pitt winner vs. No. 5 North Carolina (20–12), 2:30, ESPN
VT-Cal winner vs. No. 7 Stanford (19–12), 7 p.m., ESPN2/U
FSU-Syracuse winner vs. No. 6 SMU (22–9), 9:30, ESPN2/U
Thursday’s quarterfinals
Ga. Tech-Virginia winner vs. No. 1 (and No. 1-ranked) Duke (28–3), noon, ESPN/2
Notre Dame, Pitt or UNC vs. No. 4 Wake Forest (21–10), 2:30, ESPN/2
VT, Cal or Stanford vs. No. 2 (and No. 13-ranked) Louisville (25–6), 7 p.m., ESPN/2
FSU, Syracuse or SMU vs. No. 3 (and No. 10-ranked) Clemson (26–5), 9:30, ESPN/2
Friday’s semifinals
Thursday afternoon winners, 7 p.m., ESPN/2
Thursday evening winners, 9:30, ESPN/2
Saturday’s championship
Semifinal winners, 8:30, ESPN

Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics