By R.L. Bynum
CHAPEL HILL — With most bracket projections still leaving North Carolina out of the field a week away from Selection Sunday, the Tar Heels likely still have a lot of work to do at the ACC tournament to make the NCAA tournament.
The Tar Heels (20–12) are in a perilous position on the bubble and could be left out when the field is announced next Sunday without a big week in Charlotte.
After a six-game win streak against marginal competition moved UNC up to 38th in the NET rankings, it fell two spots to 40th after Saturday’s 82–69 senior night loss to No. 2-ranked Duke (28–3), which is first in the NET rankings.
“Our responsibility is whomever we play, to be prepared to play our best game on Wednesday and, if we play well enough, we get to play on Thursday and our preparation would shift to that,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said. “You can control what you can control, and what we can control is our play and our preparation for next week on Wednesday in the ACC tournament.”
Only 18.6% of bracket projections in the Saturday update on Bracket Matrix before the Duke loss (20 of 107) had UNC in the field, with the high of No. 10 seed from Offshore Sportsbooks.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS’s Jerry Palm both have UNC as the second team on their “First four out” lists in projections made after Saturday’s games, with the Tar Heels’ 1–11 Quad 1 record looming large.
“I have faith in this team,” RJ Davis said. “We’re not gonna hold our heads down going into the tournament. It’s more about putting our head up high and moving with positivity. We’re a different team than we were a month ago.”
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–10; 1 game left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 6–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–1): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
The question is whether No. 5-seed UNC can win its way into the field without making it to Friday’s semifinals and upsetting the No. 1-seed Blue Devils.
Carolina’s second-round game at 2:30 Wednesday (ESPN) will be against the winner of the 2 p.m. Tuesday first-round game: either a Quad 2 game against No. 13-seed Pittsburgh (17–14; 66th in the NET) or a Quad 3 game against No. 12-seed Notre Dame (14–17, 100th).
UNC will have to win by an impressive margin to improve its NET ranking, particularly if the opponent is the Irish. The same will be true in the quarterfinals for a Quad 2 game against No. 4-seed Wake Forest (21–10; 68th).
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 40
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 51 on Feb. 10
Average opponent NET: 97
Average NET win: 141
Average NET loss: 25
NET strength of schedule: 48
KenPom: 37
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 28
KPI: 55
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 41
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | 186 | 4 | Win |
| At Kansas | 18 | 1 | Loss |
| American | 237 | 4 | Win |
| At Hawai’i | 223 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Dayton | 66 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Auburn | 2 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| Alabama | 6 | 1 | Loss |
| Georgia Tech | 116 | 3 | Win |
| La Salle | 224 | 4 | Win |
| (N) Florida | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) UCLA | 24 | 1 | Win |
| Campbell | 222 | 4 | Win |
| At Louisville | 23 | 1 | Loss |
| At Notre Dame | 100 | 2 | Win |
| SMU | 49 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. State | 133 | 2 | Win |
| California | 127 | 3 | Win |
| Stanford | 82 | 3 | Loss |
| At Wake Forest | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston College | 203 | 4 | Win |
| At Pittsburgh | 60 | 1 | Loss |
| At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| Pittsburgh | 60 | 2 | Win |
| At Clemson | 22 | 1 | Loss |
| At Syracuse | 132 | 2 | Win |
| N.C. State | 133 | 3 | Win |
| Virginia | 105 | 3 | Win |
| At Florida State | 89 | 2 | Win |
| Miami | 226 | 4 | Win |
| At Virginia Tech | 164 | 3 | Win |
| Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Notre Dame or Pitt | 101 or 60 | 3 or 2 | |
| (N) Wake Forest (with Wed. win) | 68 | 2 |
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday’s first round (ACCN)
No. 12 Notre Dame (14–17) vs. No. 13 Pittsburgh (17–14), 2 p.m.
No. 10 Virginia Tech (13–18) vs. No. 15 California (13–18), 4:30
No. 11 Florida State (17–14) vs. No. 14 Syracuse (13–18), 7 p.m.
Wednesday’s second round
No. 8 Georgia Tech (16–15) vs. No. 9 Virginia (15–16), noon, ESPN
Notre Dame-Pitt winner vs. No. 5 North Carolina (20–12), 2:30, ESPN
VT-Cal winner vs. No. 7 Stanford (19–12), 7 p.m., ESPN2/U
FSU-Syracuse winner vs. No. 6 SMU (22–9), 9:30, ESPN2/U
Thursday’s quarterfinals
Ga. Tech-Virginia winner vs. No. 1 Duke (28–3), noon, ESPN/2
Notre Dame, Pitt or UNC vs. No. 4 Wake Forest (21–10), 2:30, ESPN/2
VT, Cal or Stanford vs. No. 2 Louisville (25–6), 7 p.m., ESPN/2
FSU, Syracuse or SMU vs. No. 3 Clemson (26–5), 9:30, ESPN/2
Friday’s semifinals
Thursday afternoon winners, 7 p.m., ESPN/2
Thursday evening winners, 9:30, ESPN/2
Saturday’s championship
Semifinal winners, 8:30, ESPN
| Date | Month/day | Time/ score | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 15 | Tuesday | W, 84–76 | at No. 16 Memphis | Exhibition |
| 27 | Sunday | W, 127–63 | vs. Johnson C. Smith | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 4 | Monday | W, 90–76 | vs. Elon | 1–0 |
| 8 | Friday | L, 92–89 | at No. 17 Kansas | 1–1 |
| 15 | Friday | W, 107–55 | vs. American | 2–1 |
| 22 | Friday | W, 85–69 | at Hawai’i | 3–1 |
| Maui Invitational | ||||
| 25 | Monday | W, 92–90 | Dayton | 4–1 |
| 26 | Tuesday | L, 85–72 | No. 1 Auburn | 4–2 |
| 27 | Wednesday | L, 94–91, OT | No. 8 Michigan State | 4–3 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 4 | Wednesday | L, 94–79 | vs. No. 6 Alabama | 4–4 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Saturday | W, 68–65 | vs. Georgia Tech | 5–4, 1–0 ACC |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 93–67 | vs. LaSalle | 6–4 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 90–84 | No. 3 Florida | 6–5 |
| CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden | ||||
| 21 | Saturday | W, 76–74 | UCLA | 7–5 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Sunday | W, 97–81 | vs. Campbell | 8–5 |
| January | ||||
| 1 | Wednesday | L, 83–70 | at Louisville | 8–6, 1–1 |
| 4 | Saturday | W, 74–73 | at Notre Dame | 9–6, 2–1 |
| 7 | Tuesday | W, 82–67 | vs. SMU | 10–6, 3–1 |
| 11 | Saturday | W, 63–61 | at N.C. State | 11–6, 4–1 |
| 15 | Wednesday | W, 79–53 | vs. California | 12–6, 5–1 |
| 18 | Saturday | L, 72–71 | vs. Stanford | 12–7, 5–2 |
| 21 | Tuesday | L, 67–66 | at Wake Forest | 12–8, 5–3 |
| 25 | Saturday | W, 102–96, OT | vs. Boston College | 13–8, 6–3 |
| 28 | Tuesday | L, 73–65 | at Pittsburgh | 13–9, 6–4 |
| February | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | L, 87–70 | at No. 2 Duke | 13–10, 6–5 |
| 8 | Saturday | W, 67–66 | vs. Pittsburgh | 14–10, 7–5 |
| 10 | Monday | L, 85–65 | at No. 13 Clemson | 14–11, 7–6 |
| 15 | Saturday | W, 88–82 | at Syracuse | 15–11, 8–6 |
| 19 | Wednesday | W, 97–73 | vs. N.C. State | 16–11, 9–6 |
| 22 | Saturday | W, 81–66 | vs. Virginia | 17–11, 10–6 |
| 24 | Monday | W, 96–85 | at Florida State | 18–11, 11–6 |
| March | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | W, 92–73 | vs. Miami | 19–11, 12–6 |
| 4 | Tuesday | W, 91–59 | at Virginia Tech | 20–11, 13–6 |
| 8 | Saturday | L, 82–69 | vs. No. 2 Duke | 20–12, 13–7 |
| ACC tournament Spectrum Center, Charlotte | ||||
| 12 | Wednesday | 2:30 | 2nd-round: vs. winner of Tuesday Pittsburgh-Notre Dame game | ESPN |
| 13 | Thursday | 2:30 | Quarterfinal (with win): vs. Wake Forest | ESPN or ESPN2 |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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