By R.L. Bynum
The impressive start for No. 14 North Carolina has the Tar Heels at least a No. 4 seed in most early NCAA men’s tournament bracket projections, far from last season’s bubble drama.
Instead of scrambling for a First Four spot, the Coach Hubert Davis’ Heels have built a solid résumé and will likely only have to worry about seeding.
UNC (8–1) was 13th in the NET rankings a few days ago, but slipped to 14 on Tuesday and 15 on Wednesday and 16 on Thusday despite not playing any games. Such fluctuations aren’t uncommon early in the season.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 3–4; 8 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 2 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 5–0; 2 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
Carolina should be one of the teams vying to join No. 3 Duke (10–0), with a NET ranking of 2, in playing first- and second-round games at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C., which is where the Tar Heels began their run to the 2017 national championship.
The closest school to Greenville ahead of UNC in the current NET rankings is unranked Georgia (8–1) at 14.
The average of the 31 projections listed on Bracket Matrix for UNC is 3.94, with a high of No. 2 from Jonathan Warriner at MakingtheMadness to a low of No. 5 on six projections, the most prominent being from Bart Torvik.
Six projections have the Tar Heels as a No. 3 seed, including one from CBS Sports by David Cobb and Jacob Fetner.
Eighteen projections have UNC as a No. 4 seed, including Joe Lunardi, who has the Tar Heels playing the first two rounds in Tampa, Fla., which is the third-closest site behind Greenville and Philadelphia.
Lunardi projects the Big Ten to get 11 berths, followed by nine from the Big 12 and seven from the ACC: Duke as a 1 seed, Louisville and UNC as 4 seeds, Virginia as a 6, Clemson as an 8, Miami as a 9 and N.C. State as a 10.
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Since Saturday’s victory over Georgetown, three game designations shifted:
— The Dec. 20 game against Ohio State (7–2) in the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta slipped from Quad 1 to Quad 2 on Wednesday after the Buckeyes fell to 54 after Tuesday’s 88–80 home loss to No. 13 Illinois. But the Buckeyes rose to 49 (one above the threshold for a neutral-site game) on Thursday to restore it to a Quad 1.
— The Jan. 31 game at Georgia Tech (6–4) moved from Quad 4 to Quad 3 when the Jackets’ NET ranking moved up to 206.
— The Feb. 21 game at Syracuse (5–3) barely is Quad 1 after the Orange’s NET ranking moved up to 75, the lowest for a road game to be Quad 1. This change comes despite Syracuse not having played since its 62–60 win over No. 20 Tennessee on Dec. 2.
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 27
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 132
Average NET win: 156
Average NET loss: 43
NET strength of schedule: 62
KenPom: 33
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 35
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 31
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Wednesday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 222 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 18 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 260 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 341 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 192 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 144 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 31 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 121 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 281 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 130 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 35 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 298 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 116 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 65 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 67 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 60 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 81 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 13 | 1 | |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 142 | 3 | |
| F2 | Syracuse | 75 | 2 | |
| F7 | Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 36 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 120 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 29 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 75 | 1 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 15 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 49 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 30 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 5 Duke | 6–0 | 17–1 | 2 |
| No. 18 Clemson | 6–1 | 16–4 | 32 |
| No. 14 Virginia | 5–1 | 16–2 | 13 |
| Miami | 4–2 | 15–4 | 37 |
| N.C. State | 4–2 | 13–6 | 29 |
| Virginia Tech | 4–3 | 15–5 | 51 |
| No. 22 North Carolina | 3–3 | 15–4 | 27 |
| SMU | 3–3 | 14–5 | 30 |
| Stanford | 3–3 | 14–5 | 68 |
| No. 23 Louisville | 3–3 | 13–5 | 15 |
| Syracuse | 3–3 | 12–7 | 77 |
| California | 2–4 | 14–5 | 60 |
| Wake Forest | 2–4 | 11–8 | 67 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–4 | 11–8 | 146 |
| Boston College | 2–4 | 9–10 | 157 |
| Notre Dame | 1–5 | 10–9 | 81 |
| Florida State | 1–5 | 8–11 | 115 |
| Pittsburgh | 1–5 | 8–11 | 121 |
* — Through Thursday games
Saturday’s games
No. 22 North Carolina at No. 14 Virginia, noon, ESPN2
No. 18 Clemson at Georgia Tech, noon, ACC Network
N.C. State at Pittsburgh, noon, ESPNU
Wake Forest at No. 5 Duke, noon, The CW
Miami at Syracuse, 2 p.m., ACC Network
Virginia Tech at No. 23 Louisville, 2:15, The CW
Florida State at SMU, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Wake Forest at No. 5 Duke, noon, The CW
Boston College at Notre Dame, 6 p.m., ACC Network
California at Stanford, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Monday’s game
No. 23 Louisville at No. 5 Duke, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
Wake Forest at Pittsburgh, 6 p.m., ACC Network
No. 14 Virginia at Notre Dame, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Syracuse at N.C. State, 7 p.m., ESPN U
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Wednesday’s games
California at Florida State, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Stanford at Miami, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday, Jan. 31, games
No. 5 Duke at Virginia Tech, noon, ESPN
Pittsburgh at No. 18 Clemson, noon, ACC Network
No. 14 Virginia at Boston College, 1:30, The CW
No. 22 North Carolina at Georgia Tech, 2 p.m., ACC Network
SMU at No. 23 Louisville, 2 p.m., ESPN
N.C. State at Wake Forest, 3:45, The CW
California at Miami, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Stanford at Florida State, 6 p.m., ACC Network
Notre Dame at Syracuse, 6 p.m., The CW
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 13 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 19 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 10 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at No. 14 Virginia | ESPN |
| 31 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at Georgia Tech | ACCN |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 5 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 23 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 18 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 5 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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